Still standing by last night's discussion ...

[Stormsfury]

on my website ...

Basically the cold air will only filter in gradually as there's nothing as of yet that will tap into the pot of cold air being stirred up in Canada and the RAGING PAC JET continues to wreak havoc upon the pattern.

Also, of note, it's simply not picking up on s/w disturbances ...

Several things are happening here...and we'll use the GFS ensemble means for an example today.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Notice how the Alaskan Ridge gradually fills in and two lower height anomalies begin to merge across the WPAC ... which COULD induce two things towards the middle of the month ... 1) Ridging along the West Coast in response to the retrogression of the current stubborn Northeast PAC low 2) In response, a huge trough depicted by the GFS ensembles carves out in the Central US by the end of the period, which COULD become the huge player in the 8th-12th timeframe that I discussed last night in my discussion ... and the kicker which would induce or spill the pot allowing some locked up cold as hell Canadian air right down into the US.

Tonight's 850mb Temperatures only GLANCE the Northern Plains and into the Northeast ... and keeps the core of the cold air well into Southern Canada... can we say PAC JET and zonal flow? ... also notice the strong 850mb warming occurring at the end of the period by Day 7. However, sooner or later, with this much of a temperature contrast, something's gotta give ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/EUROLoop.html

Notice tonight on the EURO's 500mb height depiction, another core of lowering heights developing around the North Pole and at the same time, another piece breaks off and moves (retrogresses WEST/SOUTHWEST) continuing the zonal flow, at least for the next 10 days ... IF the GFS ensembles are onto something the retrogression would continue as the ridge fills in Alaska and the retrogression of this feature (over British Columbia continues westward and eventually the lowering heights over Eastern Asia and that one begins to fill and merge farther out in the PAC, which presumably would raise heights (build a PNA ridge) ..

But again, a lack of a significant -NAO in the SR and MR continue, and without that, the inability to lock cold air down in the East. The Southeastern Ridge also just does NOT want to give up without a fight, but eventually, IMHO, it will lose out.

It's gonna take a clash of airmasses, and a nicely timed s/w to carve out a nasty trough/storm system to get the pot stirring, and it's still away from the horizon ... but IMHO, it's coming ... for real, this time.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... Loop2.html

SF

[wx247]

thanks for the update Storms.

[Colin]

Nice analysis.

[Stormsfury]

Well, the 0z GFS supports the JAN 8th-12th timeframe I set up on the 30th ... yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, it's the GFS ... the overall idea is there, IMHO.







GFS Ensembles are not out as of this writing so I cannot compare these to the OP GFS.

[Stephanie]

So the GFS IS picking up that storm again for the 11th! Yesterday I think at the 12 hours run, it lost it and had warm air over me. Typical GFS, but the GFS usually does pick up on the storms in the long and short range forecasts.