A Little More Promising For Sun/Mon storm

[cjh034]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TNGT...
ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY AFTER THE DEEP FREEZE THE AREA WAS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING THRU THE GTLKS EARLY THIS MORN
TO PUSH THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS WL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE WARM WX OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THE WINTER...THE CDFNT IS STARVED FOR
MOISTURE AND NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN. HV TRENDED THE CLD GRIDS
A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AS THER'LL BE PLENTY OF H8 MOISTURE AND THINK
THE CLDS WL GO BKN FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS TODAY.

TMRW NIGHT THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE B4 THE
NEXT SYS APCHS QUICKLY FM THE NW.

MANNING

&&

.LONG TERM (WED-MON):
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE WED THROUGH
EARLY MORNING THU AND SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT TO THE THU
MRNG COMMUTE. ATTM THE TRACK TAKES THE LOW'S CENTER OVER NRN HALF OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE ENUF COLD AIR IS IN PLACE TO KEEP A
CHC OF SN IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BY THU...THE STORM MOVES QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. MAY STILL SEE SOME SW- AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTION OF
THE CWA EARLY...BUT OVERALL A IMPROVING TREND. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
GETTING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE COLD CENTRAL CANADIAN HIGH THEN VERY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE STATES AND IS CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
THEN.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KEEP VERY WEAK AND
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IS NOW LOOKING STRONGER WITH A MUCH
BETTER TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE AREA. SO WILL PUT IN POPS AND A CHC OF
R-/S- ATTM AND WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

ND

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE... NONE.

[JCT777]

Well, this is certainly something to watch. Joe Bastardi has been mentioning this for a few days. Things have to come together perfectly, but it could happen.

[Anonymous]

Well, this is certainly something to watch. Joe Bastardi has been mentioning this for a few days. Things have to come together perfectly, but it could happen.

One thing to remember about things having to come together:

If its very complicated...................it usually falls short. I am not trying to be a killjoy, nor am I crying in my soup, but the major events, are usually the products of simplicity. If its not very complicated, then I say we'd better head in an orderly fashion to our local stores and buy prudent, not excessive, amounts of milk and bread and non-perishable foodstuffs to weather the storm.

Remember, for those of you like me living in the MA, remember that with major events, so many things have to come together just so for these snowstorms to come to pass.

This southern stream event sounds good, but........uh-oh..............when the word complicated enters in to the equation, I usually settle down and expect cloudy skies and maybe a flurry or a brief snow shower from the aforementioned system.

Where snow's concerned, caution's the watchword.



-JEB, certainly hoping for snow, but cautious.

[kpantz]

Good angle, Jeb.

What bums me out is that I just don't see this system deepening and making the turn (though the 00Z/06Z GFS trend IS my friend today). What's more is that the system that follows this one (in the day 10 range...blah blah unreliable blah blah) looks to be one that may just throw much of the MA/NE in the warm sector by plowing NEward through the OV.

What a crappy hand we'd have been dealt if that comes to fruition. I'm waiting for that scenario to disappear on the 12Z run, though

[Anonymous]

Yup, be a shame to have all this nice cool air, only to experience a warm-sector slop, or worse, just a plain-jane rain about ten days from now from an Appalachian Creeper (A storm that creeps up the Appalachian Mts with very heavy snow to the west and north of the track, and bountiful amounts of heavy rain and even thunderstorms!!!!! to the east and south of the track)

As I've mentioned before, it's already been a cold winter;

Winter is FAR, FAR, FAR from over;

BUT just because its been super-cold does not necessarily mean the MA will see a good snow this winter. RAIN is a certainty, if not in Jan, then certainly in Feb with the pattern retrogression (And Man, that sure puts a whole new spin on "going retro" LOL make that retro AND grungy LOL!!!!!)


You can call me JEB the Cautious. LOL LOL LOL!!!!!



-JEB, still holding out for 3 to 6 flurries, but Cautious just the same.......

[cjh034]

Jeb, tend to agree and disagree with you. It's always complicated to get a big snowfall (big, not a 3-5" storm) in our region. More times than not it doesn't pan out but it always takes a lot of things to fall into place.

[vbhoutex]

Jeb, I am not crying in my soup either. But if you want to talk things really having to come together to get snow try the Gulf coast!! We get plenty of lows producing plenty of precipitation. What we lack 99% of the time is the timing of the deeper cold air making it far enough South. Way too many times in the 49 yrs I've lived on the Gulf Coast I've seen all the ingredients there, but not timed properly, usually resulting in a FREEZING ARSE COLD RAIN, but no winter precip. At least in your area you do get the temps often enough and deep enough to get the snow at least once a year.