New ETA. Wetter But??????????

[Guest]

Still a bit farther north. Looking good for now in Michigan, PA, and NJ and the central apps. I for one wouldnt mind a track farther south which tonights 00z run i think may show of this model anyways.

[JCT777]

I tend to think the track will ultimately be a little further south than depicted here. Love the QPF, but the ETA is notorious for overdoing QPF.

[BL03]

So king when's the next call coming out?
Thanx!

[FLguy]

I tend to think the track will ultimately be a little further south than depicted here. Love the QPF, but the ETA is notorious for overdoing QPF.

The 12z runs of both the ETA and GFS are trending toward a stronger and slightly more amplified s/w. so i would not be that quick to discount the higher QPFs.

12z ETA (500 hPa heights/vorticity/winds) Valid 18z 1/14:



Now of course the system IS NOT going to be able to get all that much stronger...and WILL NOT close off at H5 because of the strong Jet rounding the base of the PV. Now the further south the placement of the s/w the more likely it is to be stronger and more amplified as it avoids the energy associated with the jet that is present near the PV.

that said the PV is centered just to the north of Nova Scotia...so the result is the s/w is not allowed to amplify that much...close off at H5 or become very strong.

the PV IS EXTREMELY strong (486DM!!!!). Some of the lowest heights in north america are associated with the PV...so if the s/w was further north it would not have a snowballs chance in He!! of surviving. with the PV dislocated that far south...there IS NO WAY that the surface low pressure areas associated with the s/w can make the turn up the coast.



as you can see the phasing does NOT occur until the s/w is WELL off the east coast.

the big factor which is going to make this event what it is relates to snow Liquid ratios. which will be running about 20:1 over a wide area. so it would not take much QPF to get some good accumulations.

[BL03]

GOOD post!
Its going to be interesting to see the final amounts!
Man those ratios will be HIGH!

check this out for ratios!
[/list]

[JCT777]

Thanks for the info, FLguy. A general 3 to 6 inches with some isolated amounts up to 8 inches seems likely for much of lower MI, eastern OH, PA, parts of WV and MD, DE, NJ, SE NY (including LI), S CT and most of RI - as well as the MA cape.

[2001kx]

ill take that track-lol