00Z WED GFS / GGEM Hammer NC &central VA w/GOOD snows!

[Guest]

I think I might just pass a gall stone

The 0z GGEM and GFS follow the ecmwf lead of Keeping that HUge PV over NF through the weekend -- this keeps the PJ howling and coming in around the PV --- from central Canada to the Ohio Valley into the NE then around that Huge 500 Low



again this prohibits any phasing with the STJ.... then the FIRST or lead s/w comes out spreading snow into KY IND ILL maybe even OH... and by 84 hrs almost into NC and sw VA



which leads to this and the GFS is Much colder at 850 as well
[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_102s.gif [/img]

By 126 hrs there is another s/w coming out which the Model wants to Lift up as the Huge 500 low over NF goes back into Canada; more snow is in KY WVA ice in NC and snow /ice in VA



GGEM shows the HUGE 500 low over NF (newfoundland) as well... at day 6 classic southern snow event into lower MA THEN off the coast Much like the Euro

[PAwx]

Yep, snows now in PA...and most likely the trend to continue North...

JB...has not back down and it looks like DT is getting on the TRAIN!

[joshskeety]

Sorry DT, you know I am usually the optomistic one, but it looks like a whole lot of sleet to me... Hope your right, though...

Josh

[QCWx]

If you get over 3" from this storm will you still wear the dress?

[Mr.Extreme]

I think I might just pass a gall stone

The 0z GGEM and GFS follow the ecmwf lead of Keeping that HUge PV over NF through the weekend -- this keeps the PJ howling and coming in around the PV --- from central Canada to the Ohio Valley into the NE then around that Huge 500 Low

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif

again this prohibits any phasing with the STJ.... then the FIRST or lead s/w comes out spreading snow into KY IND ILL maybe even OH... and by 84 hrs almost into NC and sw VA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif[/img]

which leads to this and the GFS is Much colder at 850 as well
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102s.gif

By 126 hrs there is another s/w coming out which the Model wants to Lift up as the Huge 500 low over NF goes back into Canada; more snow is in KY WVA ice in NC and snow /ice in VA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126s.gif

GGEM shows the HUGE 500 low over NF (newfoundland) as well... at day 6 classic southern snow event into lower MA THEN off the coast Much like the Euro

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hde_50.gif



*********************************************************
Is that a freak'in 1069 mb High Northwest of Alaska on the GGEM ??
Looks like if you combine the growing area of RH and the cold , maybe the Upper Mid-Atlantic COULD get into the action ??? Speculation, but possible......Over-running ???

[Hoosierwxdude]

Was going to make a post about this Dave. Interesting. I'll be watching it...


ETA looks warm at 78/84hrs though. About +3 at 850mb in LAF but sfc temps in the 20's. Precip w/sw moving in. Uh oh. GFS colder at least at 850mb.

[Anonymous]

DT,

what happened to the High on the GFS---

it looks like rain from chester to DC!

[Anonymous]

Ice to rain at DCA and points south.






-JEB

[Lafayette WX]

Was going to make a post about this Dave. Interesting. I'll be watching it...


ETA looks warm at 78/84hrs though. About +3 at 850mb in LAF but sfc temps in the 20's. Precip w/sw moving in. Uh oh. GFS colder at least at 850mb.

Finally made my way over here with the new name...Lafayette WX...you like? Anyway, interesting developments with this weekend. ETA by far is the warmest. EC/GFS are colder, though not sure if the EC is implying snow up here. At the moment it doesn't look big, but something is better than nothing.

[Guest]

at 160 hrs I really dont care.... at 12z the GFS at 132 hrs had me at +6C now I am -3 C on the 0z run

DT,

what happened to the High on the GFS---

it looks like rain from chester to DC!

[Anonymous]

it just had a high on its 18z run....on 00z run it dissapears but GGEM has a 1032 run....

oh well....


if we dont get snow from this storm we will never get it DT. including RIC

[JCT777]

Things are getting very interesting with this storm. Certainly one to watch, as it has the potential to be a major wintry event for at least the mid-Atlantic.

[joshskeety]

Dave,

Are you seeing something I am not?? I cannot find anywhere where Richmond is -3C from 120 hours to 144 hours out in the 0z run. Is there a problem with the graphics? What soundings are you using that update that quickly, btw.. The site I use does not update for almost another hour or so..

Thanks,

Josh

at 160 hrs I really dont care.... at 12z the GFS at 132 hrs had me at +6C now I am -3 C on the 0z run

DT,

what happened to the High on the GFS---

it looks like rain from chester to DC!

[WEATHER53]

it just had a high on its 18z run....on 00z run it dissapears but GGEM has a 1032 run....

oh well....


if we dont get snow from this storm we will never get it DT. including RIC

You will get snow from the late weekend system.

[Guest]

it just had a high on its 18z run....on 00z run it dissapears but GGEM has a 1032 run....

oh well....


if we dont get snow from this storm we will never get it DT. including RIC

You will get snow from the late weekend system.

Doing ok so far with the DCA seasonal.....So far DCA with only about 6 in. thus far has a lot of catching up to do with respect to the 12 inch seasonal(which even at 15 will be a respectable verification)..this clipper for WED night will historically do one of 2 things, fizzle and give just clouds and maybe flurries to an inch, or go for a bigger dump than expected, strengthen up unexpectedly, and dump 4-6(like MAR 84??)..rarely do they ever behave to the forecast in DC , right??

[Anonymous]

it just had a high on its 18z run....on 00z run it dissapears but GGEM has a 1032 run....

oh well....


if we dont get snow from this storm we will never get it DT. including RIC

You will get snow from the late weekend system.

Doing ok so far with the DCA seasonal.....So far DCA with only about 6 in. thus far has a lot of catching up to do with respect to the 12 inch seasonal(which even at 15 will be a respectable verification)..this clipper for WED night will historically do one of 2 things, fizzle and give just clouds and maybe flurries to an inch, or go for a bigger dump than expected, strengthen up unexpectedly, and dump 4-6(like MAR 84??)..rarely do they ever behave to the forecast in DC , right??

Forecasting in DC is notoriously tough. Perhaps we'll be in for a surprise.





-JEB

[WEATHER53]

For snow and cold lovers, by the time we are thru this weekend, Dancin' Days Are Here Again.

[Squall52]

Whatever anyone thinks about this storm right now, it will change by the time it comes-a-knockin'.

[Anonymous]

For snow and cold lovers, by the time we are thru this weekend, Dancin' Days Are Here Again.

After this weekend, how much snow do you believe N VA will get, if any?




-JEB

[WEATHER53]

Honestly have got two events, really three if you consider the extreme cold, to assess from now thru the weekend so I tend to avoid getting involved with what might be past all that with so much on the plate for the near future.