I'm Worried...

[Anonymous]

I probably shouldn't be, but I have been hearing people say that there could be allot or there could be a little. In my area of Northern Ocean County in NJ, I could see 8-10. Will i see that. I know the NWS upgraded there totals and things look good for no mixing with all the cold air. Someone please reassure me that my area will be plastered with heavy snow.

[Colin]

I say you have an 85% chance of getting that...and I have about the same of getting 5-9". Things are looking a bit better than what they did earlier. Keep the faith dude!

[Anonymous]

sweet man, I will keep my fingers crossed, and heres to you getting your snow too

[Tip]

Both the 18Z ETA and GFS are now showing some coastal redevelopment. For DC north any significant snowfall will hinge on this trend in the models.

[FLguy]

Both the 18Z ETA and GFS are now showing some coastal redevelopment. For DC north any significant snowfall will hinge on this trend in the models.

the 18z GFS actually slams most of northeastern PA and southern NY with heavy accumulations later on in the period. it has also trended wetter from this afternoons 12z run.

[FLguy]

but the key here more so is that both the GFS and ETA are closing off the mid levels.



that will be key in determining how fast coastal cyclogenesis takes place. and how quickly the low will deepen as it moves up the coast. if we were to take the 18z GFS at face value we could assume that its a hit for northeast PA...Nothern NJ, new york and portions of new england.

not to mention we have the greenland block and 50/50 low.

[Anonymous]

so, like you said, 8-10 from AC to Redding PA. from the son/mon storm?

[Anonymous]

I'll wager you this though...................

If coastal cyclogenesis takes place fast enough and its a hit for SNE and New England, the amounts of snow that those folks will see will make five inches of snow here in N VA look like a brief snow flurry in late April just before a major 85-degree warm weather outbreak.

Mark my words on this folks. New England will be clocked with at least 2 feet, and that may well turn out to be conservative. The cold air is there, now its just a question of how much moisture gets up there.



I got one little question tho:

I have this feeling that the coastal development will limit snow amounts in N VA south.

How right or wrong am I?

We might as well know now........... LOL


-JEB

[FLguy]

so, like you said, 8-10 from AC to Redding PA. from the son/mon storm?

a storm total from both events (sun-tue) but i will need to make significant modifications to that overnight especially further northeast.

[Anonymous]

Down to 23 degrees now, N winds 5 to 11mph, gusts to 17mph. DP is 15 degrees.

Getting chillier out there.....................




-JEB

[FLguy]

I'll wager you this though...................

If coastal cyclogenesis takes place fast enough and its a hit for SNE and New England, the amounts of snow that those folks will see will make five inches of snow here in N VA look like a brief snow flurry in late April just before a major 85-degree warm weather outbreak.

Mark my words on this folks. New England will be clocked with at least 2 feet, and that may well turn out to be conservative. The cold air is there, now its just a question of how much moisture gets up there.



I got one little question tho:

I have this feeling that the coastal development will limit snow amounts in N VA south.

How right or wrong am I?

We might as well know now........... LOL


-JEB

jeb ---- respectfully i ask you to PLEASE SHUT THE HELL UP (LOL...j/k man)

[Anonymous]

but your not taking the totals down? we will still see atleast 8 inches form my area to New England.

[Anonymous]

I'll wager you this though...................

If coastal cyclogenesis takes place fast enough and its a hit for SNE and New England, the amounts of snow that those folks will see will make five inches of snow here in N VA look like a brief snow flurry in late April just before a major 85-degree warm weather outbreak.

Mark my words on this folks. New England will be clocked with at least 2 feet, and that may well turn out to be conservative. The cold air is there, now its just a question of how much moisture gets up there.



I got one little question tho:

I have this feeling that the coastal development will limit snow amounts in N VA south.

How right or wrong am I?

We might as well know now........... LOL


-JEB

jeb ---- respectfully i ask you to PLEASE SHUT THE HELL UP (LOL...j/k man)

ROFL!!!!!!!!




-JEB!!!!!!

[FLguy]

but your not taking the totals down? we will still see atleast 8 inches form my area to New England.

i said modifications ---- i dont know right now exactly what im going to do. i dont change or make forecasts based on the 18z model cycle unless i absolutely have to. i want a chance to see the EC and 0z mdl cycle before making any decisions.

[Anonymous]

and what do u think about a possible changeover for us. Temps will be below 32 for this entire event so you would think...

[FLguy]

I'll wager you this though...................

If coastal cyclogenesis takes place fast enough and its a hit for SNE and New England, the amounts of snow that those folks will see will make five inches of snow here in N VA look like a brief snow flurry in late April just before a major 85-degree warm weather outbreak.

Mark my words on this folks. New England will be clocked with at least 2 feet, and that may well turn out to be conservative. The cold air is there, now its just a question of how much moisture gets up there.



I got one little question tho:

I have this feeling that the coastal development will limit snow amounts in N VA south.

How right or wrong am I?

We might as well know now........... LOL


-JEB

jeb ---- respectfully i ask you to PLEASE SHUT THE HELL UP (LOL...j/k man)

ROFL!!!!!!!!




-JEB!!!!!!

see, now was that so hard...

[FLguy]

and what do u think about a possible changeover for us. Temps will be below 32 for this entire event so you would think...

it will be close but let me look at 0z soundings before committing to anything either way.

[FLguy]

hopefully this will excite the weenies. heres the GFS 60hr accumulated precip (liquid equiv) for the period ending 12z wed.



yes thats an area of 1.25" of liquid along the PA/NY border amidst widespread .75-1.00" liquid amounts across PA and NJ

[Anonymous]

so whats that in inches

[therock1811]

At just 10:1, that's about 7.5".