What do we need to happen....(Deep South)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
What do we need to happen....(Deep South)
What do we need to happen for us here in the Deep South to get a taste of Arctic Air? Something is keeping us from getting in the mix so what is it? Thanks.
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TNSnowbunny
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CaptinCrunch
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1.) Artic Front with a deep push southward from the northern Rockies.
2.) Upper level low developing in the gulf of mexico and the southern jetstream to carry it up over the artic air mass across western texas so it can pull the gulf moister up north ward.
3.) The artic push will need to stick around for a few days (3-4) to substain a winter wx event
4.) North atlantic blocking ridge.
2.) Upper level low developing in the gulf of mexico and the southern jetstream to carry it up over the artic air mass across western texas so it can pull the gulf moister up north ward.
3.) The artic push will need to stick around for a few days (3-4) to substain a winter wx event
4.) North atlantic blocking ridge.
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PTrackerLA
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CaptinCrunch
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GalvestonDuck
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PTrackerLA
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32 in Galveston was a record low? I didn't realize it stayed that warm. I remember that cold outbreak too.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Tue Jan 27, 2004 2:47 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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GalvestonDuck
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Pssst...I'm a duck, not a drake. (Female, not male 
)
Nope, I was talking about a low. It was the night of the 2nd/morning of the 3rd. It dropped down to 32º. They reported it on the news as a record and said that Galveston hadn't recorded a freezing or below freezing temp since the 1800's. So it was definitely a low. We usually walk around in sweaters or jackets here in the colder months. Rarely do we have to pull out the gloves and scarves.
It's weird to me because I'm used to teens and single digit temps from when I lived in KY.
)
Nope, I was talking about a low. It was the night of the 2nd/morning of the 3rd. It dropped down to 32º. They reported it on the news as a record and said that Galveston hadn't recorded a freezing or below freezing temp since the 1800's. So it was definitely a low. We usually walk around in sweaters or jackets here in the colder months. Rarely do we have to pull out the gloves and scarves.
It's weird to me because I'm used to teens and single digit temps from when I lived in KY.
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Portastorm
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Hold the phone! Fort Worth NWSFO sees the motherlode heading south, despite what any model might suggest. Wow.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
WE ARE EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN
CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA. AT 18Z...TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WERE IN THE -30C TO -40C RANGE. THE ARCTIC FRONT
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND HAD ALREADY MOVED THROUGH RAPID CITY. COMPARISON OF
ANALYSIS TO ETA FORECASTS PLACES THE FRONT ABOUT ONE STATE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN CALCULATED TO BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WINDS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND THUS A CLOSE ESTIMATE OF THE FRONTS
SPEED. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NORMAN...AMARILLO...AND SAN
ANGELO... WE FEEL THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS AHEAD OF ANY GUIDANCE
THAT WE HAVE AVAILABLE. FURTHERMORE...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DRASTICALLY COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST. WE SEE
NOTHING THAT WILL STOP THE MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 6 TO 9 MB IN 3 HOURS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURES IN EXCESS OF 1040
MB CENTERED IN WESTERN ALBERTA. TEMPERATURES ARE AS COLD AS -40
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW
COVER ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SO VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS THE SCENARIO AS WE SEE IT NOW. AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE... FRONT WILL CROSS RED RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTER MOST OF
THE CWA HAVE HIGHS ABOUT 2 CATEGORIES WARMER THAN TODAY. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DFW BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERN ZONES BY 0900Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY INTO
THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STAY IN THE 30S AREAWIDE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT GUIDANCE DIGS THIS
FEATURE WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO... AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
FRIDAY. EVEN THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL ....OF THE
PCPN SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WE FEEL THAT THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR MAY
PUSH THE SYSTEM EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS TOO SHALLOW TO ALTER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (VIA
THERMAL WIND ARGUMENTS) THEN THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE INTERESTING
IMPLICATIONS TO NORTH TEXAS WEATHER BY WEEKS END. FOR NOW...WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE THIS ONE STEP AT A TIME AND INTRODUCE THE SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE CHANGES. THEN...WE WILL TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DO.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
WE ARE EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN
CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA. AT 18Z...TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WERE IN THE -30C TO -40C RANGE. THE ARCTIC FRONT
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND HAD ALREADY MOVED THROUGH RAPID CITY. COMPARISON OF
ANALYSIS TO ETA FORECASTS PLACES THE FRONT ABOUT ONE STATE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN CALCULATED TO BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WINDS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...AND THUS A CLOSE ESTIMATE OF THE FRONTS
SPEED. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NORMAN...AMARILLO...AND SAN
ANGELO... WE FEEL THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS AHEAD OF ANY GUIDANCE
THAT WE HAVE AVAILABLE. FURTHERMORE...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DRASTICALLY COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST. WE SEE
NOTHING THAT WILL STOP THE MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 6 TO 9 MB IN 3 HOURS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURES IN EXCESS OF 1040
MB CENTERED IN WESTERN ALBERTA. TEMPERATURES ARE AS COLD AS -40
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW
COVER ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SO VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS THE SCENARIO AS WE SEE IT NOW. AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE... FRONT WILL CROSS RED RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTER MOST OF
THE CWA HAVE HIGHS ABOUT 2 CATEGORIES WARMER THAN TODAY. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DFW BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERN ZONES BY 0900Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY INTO
THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STAY IN THE 30S AREAWIDE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT GUIDANCE DIGS THIS
FEATURE WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO... AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
FRIDAY. EVEN THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL ....OF THE
PCPN SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WE FEEL THAT THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR MAY
PUSH THE SYSTEM EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS TOO SHALLOW TO ALTER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (VIA
THERMAL WIND ARGUMENTS) THEN THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE INTERESTING
IMPLICATIONS TO NORTH TEXAS WEATHER BY WEEKS END. FOR NOW...WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE THIS ONE STEP AT A TIME AND INTRODUCE THE SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE CHANGES. THEN...WE WILL TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DO.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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Anonymous
Very Cold Air Coming to Texas!
Based on what Portastorm posted sounds like it will get very cold in Texas by the end of this week. I wonder if it will mix with any moisture for an ice or snow storm? It sounds like there is at least at chance based on that last paragraph 
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CaptinCrunch
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southerngale
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We've got a freeze warning for tonight with temps getting into the 20's way down here. No precipitation expected though. 
I'm more interested in whether the models are still suggesting that Arctic blast for Sunday/early next week. Anyone know?
I'm more interested in whether the models are still suggesting that Arctic blast for Sunday/early next week. Anyone know?
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BayouVenteux
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Looks like SHV is catching on to something as well...
From the Shreveport NWS extended discussion...
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY WED NIGHT AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG SRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW DRIVING THROUGH WY/SD (VERY COLD AIR) AND SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS CA/NV. PER CURRENT TEMPS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND SNOW PACK AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN OK/AR...WE'RE CONCERNED THAT MODELS AREN'T HANDLING THE SPEED/OR TIMING OF THIS SHALLOW...YET BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURS
NIGHT...WE'RE VERY CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THIS ARCTIC AIR COULD
SNEAK SWD INTO AT LEAST INTO NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND
UNDERNEATH THE CONFLUENT FLOW ABOVE. THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT...BUT LOWER TEMPS OVER W/NW ZONES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES THURS AND LOWER TEMPS MOST OF CWA FOR THURS NIGHT. IF TRENDS NEXT 24 HRS CONTINUE...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED MUCH MORE SO THAT WE'LL INDICATE ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.
Wow!! It will be interesting to see if and when other NWS offices in the south central region start hopping on board the Arctic Express in the next 12-18 hours.
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY WED NIGHT AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG SRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW DRIVING THROUGH WY/SD (VERY COLD AIR) AND SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS CA/NV. PER CURRENT TEMPS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND SNOW PACK AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN OK/AR...WE'RE CONCERNED THAT MODELS AREN'T HANDLING THE SPEED/OR TIMING OF THIS SHALLOW...YET BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURS
NIGHT...WE'RE VERY CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THIS ARCTIC AIR COULD
SNEAK SWD INTO AT LEAST INTO NRN/WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND
UNDERNEATH THE CONFLUENT FLOW ABOVE. THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE THIS FAR OUT...BUT LOWER TEMPS OVER W/NW ZONES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES THURS AND LOWER TEMPS MOST OF CWA FOR THURS NIGHT. IF TRENDS NEXT 24 HRS CONTINUE...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED MUCH MORE SO THAT WE'LL INDICATE ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.
Wow!! It will be interesting to see if and when other NWS offices in the south central region start hopping on board the Arctic Express in the next 12-18 hours.
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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CaptinCrunch
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Updated forecast for Dallas/Ft Worth
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 27. South wind between 7 and 15 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. South southwest wind between 15 and 17 mph.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance for rain showers after midnight. Chance for precipitation is 20%. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 20. Windy, with a east northeast wind between 16 and 25 mph.
Thursday: A slight chance for rain showers. Chance for precipitation is 20%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind between 20 and 24 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northeast wind around 21 mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 18 to 21 mph becoming northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. South southwest wind between 16 and 21 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 15 to 21 mph becoming northwest.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 34.
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 27. South wind between 7 and 15 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. South southwest wind between 15 and 17 mph.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance for rain showers after midnight. Chance for precipitation is 20%. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 20. Windy, with a east northeast wind between 16 and 25 mph.
Thursday: A slight chance for rain showers. Chance for precipitation is 20%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northeast wind between 20 and 24 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northeast wind around 21 mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 18 to 21 mph becoming northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. South southwest wind between 16 and 21 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 15 to 21 mph becoming northwest.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 34.
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PTrackerLA
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Suzi Q
For my fellow Houstonians, I just checked Skywarn and there is NO mention of this artic blast making it to us. We DO have a good chance at showers and thunderstorms Thursday & Thursday night, possibly due to the low coming in from Baja, mentioned in Dallas' advisory, if I'm reading it correctly. Either way, no wintry precip for us (AGAIN)! It was nice to see my birdbath frozen this morning, don't remember the last time that happened. Guess I'll stop honking now.
Suzi the very sad southern snow goose
Suzi the very sad southern snow goose
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CajunMama
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Re: What do we need to happen....(Deep South)
Johnny wrote:What do we need to happen for us here in the Deep South to get a taste of Arctic Air? Something is keeping us from getting in the mix so what is it? Thanks.
I think the answer to your question is OHD, the Snow Nazi!
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