Thoughts on the next two events! Sun/Mon and 2nd system!

[Guest]

First off lets start with the models as of late. We all know by now what they have been doing the last several weeks which for one is downlaying the artic airmass in relation to our storm systems such as the case was last week in the Carolinas and the eastcoast and for that matter the OV as well.
The thing to take note of is the diffacutly the models seem to be having for whatever reason in the 2 -5 day time frame and last weekend was a perfect example of that. And again i have been as usuall following the two storms all this week for next week and system one "sun/mon event" has basically been handled the same way. For almost 5 days they had this system going thru the southern OV and redeveloping off of the VA capes or there about. Then two days ago they shifted way west as they did with last weeks system bringing this system up into the western /central Lakes and bringing a huge dump of snow out in the midwest up into the Lakes which is part reason i think why a certain office out that way Jumped the gun.
Already as i expected today and more so tonight the models are starting to go back to thier solution they had a few days ago which is to bring this sytem a bit farther south and east thru the OV. GFS which has beaten the hell out of the other models as of late especially in this time frame is catching this more so then the others i do believe. Besides that one cant forget the current snowpack that sits out in the OV as well which with temps like they are gonna be isnt going anywhere anytime soon.

The hardest part of this system will be areas east of the apps because of the role the Cad may play which alot imo depends on exactly where the high to the north sets up shop. If last weekend is any indication well i would highly suggest you guys down there keep a eye on this system. However im still not sold on a big cad event just yet.

For the most part i expect the Heaviest snows to fall from the OV/Lower Lakes over into areas west of i95 from about Philly on south. north of Philly especially up towards NYC and Boston is where the best snows along the i95 corridor will fall. DC and Philly to just south of NYC will probably see a rain or mixed to rain ending as snow in all locations with atleast a few inches of snow on the southern end (DC area)and more as you head north and west. BTW you folks out in the midwest will see some decent snow from this but not anything near such as certain NWS offices are saying out that way.

Now with that second system i pretty much expect it to play out sorta like the first one on the models so expect it to change probably tomorrow or sunday and then when were within a couple days of that event it will be brought back again. Only difference which is huge for eastern most areas i see is this one will be a bigger snow producer for the i95 corridor from DC north. Could be huge for some. I do expect the OV as well to get some decent amounts out of this as well with the initial low that will probably track into the southern OV or Northern TN Valley and then redevelop off of Hattaras and take a ride up the coast instead of out to sea!

Either way still have a few more days to watch these two systems so anything could change i just dont see any more trends back to the nw with the FIRST system. My initial thoughts here and i will have more as we get closer to the events.

[Stormsfury]

Good discussion, KOW ... but the 00z ETA looks decent for a time, then all kinds of issues come about ...

1) Too aggressive with the coastal trough moving back inland over South Carolina.
2) Which in turn brings the coastal low (which is too close to the coast anyway) to turn inland ... which is very suspect ...
3) The OV has some brutally cold temperatures that are NOT being picked up well as you've already stated ... and plenty of snowcover in which this airmass will not modify much as it dams on the Eastern Side of the Appalachians ... mix in, very dry dewpoints, and voila, the moisture intensifies the wedge ...
4) Trends keep turning colder and colder.

The wedging doesn't look like a pure classic like last weekend's event, but still nonetheless, looking more and more sufficient enough to bring the Carolinas yet another threat of wintry weather ...

SF

[Guest]

Agreed. Yea the ETA has me wondering as well but i think as was the case last week it will pick up on the things we have discussed here on tomorrows runs probably. ETA btw did horrible out this way with both temps and and precip......More so the Temps. Way way too warm. So lets see what the ETA and the others have to say tomorrow.

[Colin]

Nice discussion, KOW, but I think all areas 50-100 miles northwest of the I-95 Corridor may have a shot at significant snows. (6"+)

But what do I know?

[Anonymous]

from the second system, if it takes the right path, like enough out to see and enough near the coast to give even the coast mostly or all snow from this one? 6+ for us.

[Dj3]

KOW, who do you think will get significant snow out of this storm if it tracks further south like you said?

[tomboudreau]

It is brutal cold here. Temp is struggling to get of the low to mid single digits this morning. Going to be an interesting week it looks like...and of course, work has me on the road Tuesday/Wed/and Thursday. Thank goodness for four wheel drive.

Tom

[Colin]

from the second system, if it takes the right path, like enough out to see and enough near the coast to give even the coast mostly or all snow from this one? 6+ for us.

Like I said, probably a mix to rain. Not every storm is going to give significant snows to your area.