Winter Outlook (Feb-Mar 2004)
5AM EST, February 1, 2004
Groundhog Day is here and much
attention is being focused on a famous
furry weather predictor, Punxatawney Phil.
It is an appropriate time to also look at
some more scientific factors and what
they mean for the rest of the winter.
December and January have seen quite
variable conditions with some very warm
spells in the Plains, Rockies and even the
east coast and repeated shots of bitter
cold from the upper Midwest to the
northeast.
The variability is related to the lack of one
dominating factor such as El Nino. So far
this winter, water temperatures in the
equatorial Pacific have been only a tad (1
degree F) above normal, and there are no
signs that conditions will trend toward an El Nino through the winter.
With no clear factor overwhelming the weather pattern, the outlook for the
remainder of the winter is more uncertain than usual. However, long range
forecast models and an evaluation of winters that had similar December to
January periods can give us some insights into what to expect in the next two
months.
Strong, mild flow from the Pacific is likely to continue competing with arctic air
pushing out of Canada. The main storm track is expected to continue running
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Plains and then off the northeast
coast with a secondary track from Texas across the Gulf coast and then off the
southeast coast.
This pattern does not look encouraging for any significant abating of the severe
drought in the southwest U.S.
The predominantly west to east jet stream flow and storm track will make it
difficult for arctic air to penetrate very far south, but at the same time will work
against prolonged periods of unseasonable warmth in the northern states.
Meanwhile the expected pattern points to fewer than average nor`easters or
major east coast winter storms for the remainder of the winter. As in the first
half of the winter, frequent light to moderate snowfalls are expected across the
northern tier.
This, along with the cold waters off the east coast and extensive ice cover on
the Great Lakes, will help to reinforce the current pattern favoring frequent
bouts of frigid air in the northeastern quarter of the U.S.
Winter Outlook (Feb-Mar 2004)
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Winter Outlook (Feb-Mar 2004)
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Re: Winter Outlook (Feb-Mar 2004)
CaptinCrunch wrote:This, along with the cold waters off the east coast and extensive ice cover on the Great Lakes, will help to reinforce the current pattern favoring frequent bouts of frigid air in the northeastern quarter of the U.S.
This part sounds good to me.
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