ThunderStorms, Cold Temps, Light Snow for N. Texas

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST MON FEB 2 2004

LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ONE UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...AS ANOTHER STRONGER VORT MAX DIGS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL FORECAST TEMPS FROM
THE MID 20S-NEAR 30. WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SEEN ON 02/12Z RAOB
ANALYSIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO
WARMER AFTERNOON MAXES ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE
ETA/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THIS UPPER VORT MAX
INLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH QG FORCING FOR UVM INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295/300K THETA SFCS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
THUS MAINTAIN THE TREND OF STARTING PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE THAT STRONG AT THIS POINT...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD PREVENT PROBLEMS WITH
FLOODING. PRECIP SHOULD END FORM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE SOURCE OF LIFT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWFA ON
THURSDAY.

MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS...BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS PERHAPS THE DEEPEST COLD AIRMASS OF THE YEAR SO
FAR MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPLYING VERY COLD AIR TO THE DAMMING REGIONS OF
VA/NC/SC WILL COMBINE WITH AN AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON
BAY AREA TO BRING VERY COLD TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
NOW BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE SOLUTION OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING VORT
MAX DIGGING ACROSS SONORA BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE REGION OF LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE IGNORED. ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHT POPS
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES TEND TO FAVOR SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH. IT MUST BE
EMPHASIZED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AT END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.