Good evening everyone. Looking at an interesting time period for the eastern seaboard tonight through the day on Tuesday. However compared to what occurred one week ago tonight, this storm will be a bit warmer as we won't have as much arctic air this go around as we had say 7 days ago. As a result, the frozen precip such as the significant icing shifts north and west from where we saw it last week.
However winter storm warnings are up from western North Carolina northward into western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, western Maryland northwest of DC and Baltimore and up through central and western Pennsylvania as well. A winter weather advisory is up for DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia on south and east through Tuesday.
A new low pressure is expected to move through the Delmarva and Tidewater area during the day Tuesday. Areas closer to the coast will see all rain from this storm. This includes coastal Maryland on southward through the Carolina coast. As you can recall, ice was significant just inland from the North and South Carolina coast one week ago tonight. More ocean air is expected this time in these areas, thus all rain.
The most significant ice accumulation will likely occur along the I 81 corridor from western North Carolina northward through western Virginia and western Maryland. Areas to the north of that across west central Pennsylvania could see both significant ice and significant snows.
For the major cities of DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, precip may start off as an icy mixture by morning drive time. However models have been trending slower with the onset and it's very possible the major metros could see mostly liquid as well, especially south and east of the major metros. It will be a cold rain with temps in the mid 30s at best tomorrow from DC to Philly. Areas north and west of there will likely see more prolonged and significant icing.
What occurred last week at this time was a much colder pattern where arctic high pressure was centered over Quebec. This high brought colder air and a strong cold air damming situation all the way down into Georgia. Major ice fell just inland from the coast of the Carolinas. There was snow and ice across the Mid Atlantic region last week. A coastal storm was centered offshore. However with moisture drawn into very cold subfreezing air, widespread freezing precip occurred.
This time around, the high pressure is centered off the coast of new england. This high is not as cold either. As a result, the wind flow around that high is bringing in more ocean air into the Middle Atlantic states and the Carolinas. As a result, only interior areas of the Mid Atlantic and northeast will see significant snow and ice with the megalopolis on the southeastern edge of this wintry episode. Definitely a big improvement from a week ago.
Jim
MD weather obs . Some differences compared to last storm..
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