Late model trends...stink..argh...little snow for DC and PHL

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ezweather
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Late model trends...stink..argh...little snow for DC and PHL

#1 Postby ezweather » Tue Feb 03, 2004 8:10 am

Good morning everyone. After looking at the models and the way things are going, I just want to scream with frustration and annoyance with this winter. Now this rant is for the DC, Philly areas. For instance, if you live in central PA, its been a relatively great winter. Just depends where you live. But in terms of getting the dominant low development along the East coast is not happening. These lows have not gotten their act together one bit, especially from the Gulf of Mexico. They always get really going from the Atlantic City coastal waters north. When I looked at the models this morning, what they told me was that the storm for this weekend would be a brief mix for here and a changevoer to rain. What really stinks is that all this frigid arctic air is not timing well with the southern branch down here. The timing is just off. Whats really awful is that do we have to wait till the 14th for something or go out to 300 hours to say, wow it looks like we got a storm. We know thats "Fools Gold". The GFS is notorious for that. I should really look at the ensembles and see what the trends are. The newest ensembles by 288 hours, does show some very cold arctic air returning, but the big question is when will Philly and DC get some big snows. Will the season end the way it began, when Boston got really dumped on. Maybe I'm just a hog with snow storms. I know we had a great snow storm last year in February. This February might just be a cold one, but maybe not the big snows down here. I can't even make a statement that we won't see big threats, but this morning, I just saw nothing encouraging for big snows late this week from last night's run. So, patience will be key and will have to dig down deep in the current data on where we are heading. Let's see how today unfolds with this system and see how long the cold air holds in. I'm curious if we will some unusual stuff and how good the models were for this storm. If its gonna be colder toward the end of the week, then we may have some interesting stuff to talk about.

Alrighty, gotta run, but just had to vent a little bit here. I just like to see some big snows, but hey we did have a great winter last year...
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#2 Postby Stephanie » Tue Feb 03, 2004 9:39 am

When I got up this morning, the precipitation didn't start yet - it was just reaching Baltimore. By the time I left for work it was already above freezing, so Philadelphia on south didn't have a thing to worry about with freezing rain or sleet.
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#3 Postby JCT777 » Tue Feb 03, 2004 9:56 am

I still think the Friday through Sunday time frame has some interesting possibilities. I don't think all of the precipitation will fall as snow, but it won't all fall as rain either. We will just have to see how it plays out.
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#4 Postby Stephanie » Tue Feb 03, 2004 11:58 am

The GFS has had the temps at the 850 and surface levels as being too warm for my area during that storm. I know that there are alot of things that it seems to be omitting per SF, etc., but it seems to me that it's been pretty consistent with that.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Tue Feb 03, 2004 12:11 pm

Hey, this is the GFS. I believe the next 2 weeks will get quite stormy/Cold, even down into parts of Dixie. This weekend DOES have my interest as it may start out wet but end white across the Mid Atlantic and NE. Nevermind the 12Z which currently shows qpf out before cold in, its way early. The idea is that it is consistently showing the cold in the east, and I believe we'll get there, and into the sweet spot for some good ole Feb storm event. Wish I were in the north next few weeks!
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#6 Postby Stephanie » Tue Feb 03, 2004 12:13 pm

Steve H. wrote:Hey, this is the GFS. I believe the next 2 weeks will get quite stormy/Cold, even down into parts of Dixie. This weekend DOES have my interest as it may start out wet but end white across the Mid Atlantic and NE. Nevermind the 12Z which currently shows qpf out before cold in, its way early. The idea is that it is consistently showing the cold in the east, and I believe we'll get there, and into the sweet spot for some good ole Feb storm event. Wish I were in the north next few weeks!


Actually, I wish I was in Palm Bay right about now! :eek:
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