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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4080
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Latest from DFW NWS
As of now, looks like sleet/snow for DFW starting Friday with all snow on Saturday. They're looking at accumulations of 2-5 inches from Sulphur Springs to Fort Worth. Best of luck to you guys living up there.
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PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PCPN TYPE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
.MODEL COMPARISON...
WE ARE FAVORING THE GFS SERIES WITH THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF ITS
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND ITS PLACEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z
ETA IS THE OUTLIER IN THE ENSEMBLES WHEREAS AVN/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL
CONTINUE WITH A TRACK OF THE H5 LOW FURTHER NORTH...RIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL
QPF... WHICH WE WILL DISCUSS BELOW. ETA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND IS DEMONSTRATING A VERY
QUESTIONABLE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PRECIP GENERATED IN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT REGION AND THE UPPER-LOW. AVN SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND ACCORDING TO OUR CONCEPTUAL
MODEL.
.FORCING/PRECIPITATION...
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO
E ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW A WELL-DEFINED TROWEL (TROUGH OF
WARM AIR ALOFT) MOVING INTO SW ZONES BY 0000 UTC (BEST SEEN IN E-W
CROSS SECTIONS AND AS A 700-HPA THETA-E RIDGE). THIS FEATURE MOVES
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CURVES CYCLONICALLY WITH TIME/HEIGHT AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN H7-H5
LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 DEG/KM OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. (THE TROWEL HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED IN THE
LITERATURE TO BE IMPORTANT IN SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENTS AS
IT REPRESENTS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BEING WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM). THEREFORE...WE FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE EFFICIENTLY
PULLED NORTHWARD AND LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN OVER THE SW BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND SPREAD E THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE LAPSE RATES HAVE US
CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AS THE GREATER FORCING
FOR LIFT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...ALL MODELS PLACE THE AXIS
OF UPPER-LEVEL DEFORMATION NW OF H5 LOW FROM FORT WORTH TO WESTERN
ARKANSAS FROM 0900 TO 1800 SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WE ARE NUDGING OUR
POP/QPF FORECAST A BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE CURRENT AVN SUGGESTS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTER-GOVERNMENTAL EXPERIMENTAL WINTER
WEATHER GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE HPC THAT PLACES A STORM TOTAL
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION AXIS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO
FORT WORTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WE ARE
RAISING POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ALL ZONES SOUTH OF A
BRECKENRIDGE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
.PRECIPITATION TYPE.
MICROPHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS
(1000-850 AND 850-700) CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AREAWIDE AS SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. AS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ENSUES...MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE EFFICIENTLY CONVERTED INTO
VERTICAL MOTION RATHER THAN TO SENSIBLE HEATING. HOWEVER...JUST
ENOUGH SENSIBLE HEATING WILL OCCUR TO TRANSITION THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE ALL SNOW. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE FOR ALL LIQUID
PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT. NW OF THIS LINE...WE EXPECT A ROW OR TWO OF
COUNTIES WILL HAVE A RAIN/IP MIXTURE...WITH A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS STILL CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST ISSUED YESTERDAY AS OUR LINE OF THINKING IS STILL
THE SAME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INCOMING DATA TO
BETTER RESOLVE PCPN TYPE. WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ENDING FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ROW OF COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IF SFC TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS EXPECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
.MODEL COMPARISON...
WE ARE FAVORING THE GFS SERIES WITH THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF ITS
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND ITS PLACEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z
ETA IS THE OUTLIER IN THE ENSEMBLES WHEREAS AVN/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL
CONTINUE WITH A TRACK OF THE H5 LOW FURTHER NORTH...RIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA SATURDAY. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL
QPF... WHICH WE WILL DISCUSS BELOW. ETA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND IS DEMONSTRATING A VERY
QUESTIONABLE DISCONNECT BETWEEN PRECIP GENERATED IN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT REGION AND THE UPPER-LOW. AVN SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND ACCORDING TO OUR CONCEPTUAL
MODEL.
.FORCING/PRECIPITATION...
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO
E ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW A WELL-DEFINED TROWEL (TROUGH OF
WARM AIR ALOFT) MOVING INTO SW ZONES BY 0000 UTC (BEST SEEN IN E-W
CROSS SECTIONS AND AS A 700-HPA THETA-E RIDGE). THIS FEATURE MOVES
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CURVES CYCLONICALLY WITH TIME/HEIGHT AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN H7-H5
LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 DEG/KM OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. (THE TROWEL HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED IN THE
LITERATURE TO BE IMPORTANT IN SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENTS AS
IT REPRESENTS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BEING WRAPPED INTO THE
SYSTEM). THEREFORE...WE FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE EFFICIENTLY
PULLED NORTHWARD AND LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN OVER THE SW BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND SPREAD E THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE LAPSE RATES HAVE US
CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AS THE GREATER FORCING
FOR LIFT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...ALL MODELS PLACE THE AXIS
OF UPPER-LEVEL DEFORMATION NW OF H5 LOW FROM FORT WORTH TO WESTERN
ARKANSAS FROM 0900 TO 1800 SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WE ARE NUDGING OUR
POP/QPF FORECAST A BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE CURRENT AVN SUGGESTS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTER-GOVERNMENTAL EXPERIMENTAL WINTER
WEATHER GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE HPC THAT PLACES A STORM TOTAL
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION AXIS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO
FORT WORTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...WE ARE
RAISING POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ALL ZONES SOUTH OF A
BRECKENRIDGE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
.PRECIPITATION TYPE.
MICROPHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS
(1000-850 AND 850-700) CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AREAWIDE AS SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. AS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ENSUES...MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE EFFICIENTLY CONVERTED INTO
VERTICAL MOTION RATHER THAN TO SENSIBLE HEATING. HOWEVER...JUST
ENOUGH SENSIBLE HEATING WILL OCCUR TO TRANSITION THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE ALL SNOW. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE FOR ALL LIQUID
PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT. NW OF THIS LINE...WE EXPECT A ROW OR TWO OF
COUNTIES WILL HAVE A RAIN/IP MIXTURE...WITH A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS STILL CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST ISSUED YESTERDAY AS OUR LINE OF THINKING IS STILL
THE SAME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INCOMING DATA TO
BETTER RESOLVE PCPN TYPE. WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...ENDING FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ROW OF COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IF SFC TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS EXPECTED.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
142 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2004
.NOW...
DOPPLER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS INDICATING AN AREA OF SLEET
AND SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
CANTON...CORSICANA...CENTERVILLE LINE. BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
AND SLEET ARE CAUSING SLICK AND SLUSHY ROADS...AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ATHENS TO FRANKLIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS OCCURS...A FEW ROADS ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
142 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2004
.NOW...
DOPPLER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS INDICATING AN AREA OF SLEET
AND SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
CANTON...CORSICANA...CENTERVILLE LINE. BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
AND SLEET ARE CAUSING SLICK AND SLUSHY ROADS...AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ATHENS TO FRANKLIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS OCCURS...A FEW ROADS ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK.
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