Day 5 ECMWF Very Similar to Feb 22-24th, 1989...

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Stormsfury
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Day 5 ECMWF Very Similar to Feb 22-24th, 1989...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Feb 13, 2004 7:19 pm

Thanks to DT for posting that on WWBB ...

Feb. 24th, 1989

This system brought 4" of snow to my location here ... and the resemblance to the Day 5 ECMWF tonight is similar ...

ECMWF Day 5 500mb heights

IF memory serves me right, the 1989 storm didn't bode well for the NE, but the SE/MA did well with the storm ...

SF
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Bane
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#2 Postby Bane » Fri Feb 13, 2004 7:48 pm

I'd have no problem with this setup.
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thstorm87
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#3 Postby thstorm87 » Fri Feb 13, 2004 7:56 pm

I hope its not like 89, because that storm didnt effect the northeast really. basically south of dc. Storm do you think this latest model is right, or do you think this storm will move further north and effect the dc-boston corridor?
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Feb 13, 2004 8:46 pm

thstorm87 wrote:I hope its not like 89, because that storm didnt effect the northeast really. basically south of dc. Storm do you think this latest model is right, or do you think this storm will move further north and effect the dc-boston corridor?


Quite possible ... the EC might be hanging back a little energy in the progressive flow ... the GGEM/GFS/NOGAPS (extrapolating) are BARKING ... and the ECMWF is trending towards the NE's side ... the PV is returning to a more climo position ...

In actuality, there's SHADES of Jan 2000 (and the EC's Day 5 with the Feb 24th, 1989 look) written on this ... the setup looks similar, and IF IF IF the SFC reflection offshore waits on the H5 Vort in the northern stream (like 2000) ... SECS ...
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