Observations, snow totals so far, and expected snow totals

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening folks. Lots to talk about tonight. First the observations from the last few hours are colder and snowier for the tidewater area of Virginia and likewise for central and northern North Carolina.

At 8 PM EST, Raleigh, NC has a wintry mix and 34 degrees. Richmond has 1 mile visibility in light snow and 32 degrees. South of Richmond, it's snowing heavier in intensity while areas north of Richmond are seeing virtually nothing at all so far. Norfolk, VA has light snow with 0.75 mile visibility and 34 degrees. Temperature in Norfolk at 7 PM was 36 degrees and it was 37 degrees at 6 PM with rain and sleet mixture. Virginia Beach is 32 degrees with snow and freezing fog. Visibility in Virginia Beach as of 8 pm is down to 0.50 miles. In Newport News, it's 32 degrees with light snow and 2 mile visibility while Wakefield 30 miles to the west is 31 with snow and freezing fog at 8 pm. Visibility is 0.50 miles in Wakefield. So there are definite changes in the tidewater area as the rain/sleet mixture has become all snow all throughout the tidewater area. This is the time when snow accumulations are expected to begin in the Norfolk and Virginia Beach area. While there is potential for a brief break in the snow for the tidewater area, radar shows the precip filling right back in across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Thus any break in the precip within the next hour across the tidewater will be short lives as moderate to heavy snow is expected throughout the overnight. In addition winds have switched direction at Virginia Beach and Norfolk from easterly to northerly. That veer in the wind direction combined with the dynamic cooling courtesy of this storm system is causing at or sub freezing temps virtually throughout the tidewater and temps will be below freezing everywhere within the next hour or two in SE Virginia. Norfolk should drop to 32 or lower by 9 PM and stay below freezing throughout the night with snow, possibly heavy at times. More on the snow amounts in just a minute.

Shifting our focus from observations to the snow totals from the southern United States. Areas from north central Texas and southern Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas were hit hard by heavy snow amounts as advertized earlier today. Another hard hit area was Tennessee and northern Alabama where over 6 inches of snow was reported in many places. Given the very wet nature to this snow, the weight of the snow is heavier for trees and powerlines to handle. Thus power outages have been reported today across northern Alabama through parts of tennessee as well. The following below is snow totals from this area. There was a report of 11 inches of snow in southern Tennessee.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2004

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT OLD HICKORY:

525 PM ROCK ISLAND 4 INCHES

430 PM SPENCER 6 INCHES

430 PM 10 NW CROSSVILLE 9 INCHES

430 PM MCMINNVILLE 6.5 INCHES

130 PM HOHENWALD 5 INCHES

130 PM SHELBYVILLE 5 INCHES

130 PM SUMMERTOWN 11 INCHES

130 PM WOODBURY 4.5 INCHES

130 PM LEWISBURG 6 INCHES

130 PM CENTERTOWN 4 INCHES

130 PM FALL CREEK FALLS 3.5 INCHES

130 PM CROSSVILLE 8 INCHES

130 PM FAIRFIELD GLADE 5 INCHES

130 PM THOMPSON STATION 4 INCHES

1145 AM MURFREESBORO 3.5 INCHES

1145 AM COLUMBIA 7 INCHES

$$

JLM

WWUS54 KOHX 152243
LSRBNA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
443 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2004

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY SNOW SPENCER 35.74N 85.46W
02/15/2004 6.00 INCH VAN BUREN TN PUBLIC


0430 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 NW CROSSVILLE 36.05N 85.16W
02/15/2004 9.00 INCH CUMBERLAND TN PUBLIC


0430 PM HEAVY SNOW MCMINNVILLE 35.69N 85.78W
02/15/2004 6.50 INCH WARREN TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW HOHENWALD 35.55N 87.56W
02/15/2004 5.00 INCH LEWIS TN AIRPLANE PILOT


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW SHELBYVILLE 35.49N 86.45W
02/15/2004 5.00 INCH BEDFORD TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 N LAWRENCEBURG 35.45N 87.34W
02/15/2004 11.00 INCH LAWRENCE TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW WOODBURY 35.82N 86.07W
02/15/2004 4.50 INCH CANNON TN AIRPLANE PILOT


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW LEWISBURG 35.45N 86.79W
02/15/2004 6.00 INCH MARSHALL TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW CENTERTOWN 35.72N 85.92W
02/15/2004 4.00 INCH WARREN TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 SE SPENCER 35.64N 85.33W
02/15/2004 3.50 INCH BLEDSOE TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW CROSSVILLE 35.95N 85.04W
02/15/2004 8.00 INCH CUMBERLAND TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW FAIRFIELD GLADE 36.00N 84.90W
02/15/2004 5.00 INCH CUMBERLAND TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 S FRANKLIN 35.78N 86.84W
02/15/2004 4.00 INCH WILLIAMSON TN PUBLIC


0130 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 NE MCMINNVILLE 35.84N 85.59W
02/15/2004 2.00 INCH WHITE TN AIRPLANE PILOT


1145 AM HEAVY SNOW MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
02/15/2004 3.50 INCH RUTHERFORD TN PUBLIC


1145 AM HEAVY SNOW COLUMBIA 37.10N 85.31W
02/15/2004 7.00 INCH ADAIR KY PUBLIC


As this storm tracks east towards the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, expect moderate to heavy snow to continue on the north side of this storm. This means you in Danville, VA, possibly as far south as Raleigh, NC. The hardest hit area will likely be the tidewater of Virginia and southern Virginia near the VA/NC border where significant snow accumulation is expected. The following is a breakdown of current projected snow totals city by city across the southern Mid Atlantic for tonight through early Monday and the latest advisories and warnings.

SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

Richmond, VA: 1-2", winter weather advisory is up for Richmond
North of Richmond: A dusting to nothing at all
Williamsburg: 2-4" of snow, winter weather advisory is in effect
Petersburg: 2-4" of snow, winter weather advisory is in effect
Farmville: 2-4" of snow, winter weather advisory is in effect
Danville: 3-5" of snow, winter storm warning is up

SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NC

Raleigh, NC: 2-5" winter storm warning is in effect
Wakefield, VA: 4-8", winter storm warning is in effect
Norfolk: 4-8", winter storm warning is up
Chesapeake: 4-8", winter storm warning is in effect
Newport News: 2-5" of snow, winter weather advisory.

IMMEIDATE COASTAL ZONES

Winter weather advisories are up for the immediate coastal areas. The further north you go say towards Virginia Beach, rain has changed over to snow sooner, thus higher totals are expected in Virginia Beach while rain changes to snow further south much later, thus less snow accumulation. Wind gusts along the coast could reach 45-50 mph. Gale warnings and a heavy surf advisory are in effect in the coastal zones. A wild and nasty night for the Virginia and northeast North Carolina coast.

Virginia Beach, VA: 3-6" Sandbridge, VA: 2-4"
Elizabeth City, NC: 1-3" Kitty Hawk, NC: 1-2"

winds gusts in all of the coastal locations could reach 45-50 mph with sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph. A wild night tonight for Middle Atlantic coast.

This snowstorm and wind event will move out by Monday morning after dawn and we'll see a temporary break during the day Monday from the wind and precipitation. Then the next southern stream storm is expected to reach North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday and Tuesday night. A new coastal low is expected to develop on the Carolina coast late Tuesday and possibly move up the coast as a nor' easter on Wednesday. There are still uncertainities as to the exact track, intensity, or the amount of precipitation that is expected from this low. However northern North Carolina northward through Virginia and the entire megalopolis need to pay special attention to this part 2 storm midweek. I'll post more details on this second storm later as more certainity comes in.

Have a good night and stay safe from North Carolina to southeast and south central Virginia overnight. Best bet is to stay off the roads unless you absolutely have to travel overnight. Stay tuned.

Jim