18z ETA

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:24 pm

The 18z ETA is coming in, and continues the westward trend. As of 42hrs it has some QPF values over 0.75" over parts of the Delmarva and far S NJ. Amounts of over 0.25" are widespread over E MD and the southern 2/3 of NJ.

Looking at the 500mb maps, the shortwave appears stronger this run, but -- correct me if I'm wrong -- the STJ and PJ shortwaves seem to have a little tougher of a time trying to phase early on. In the end, though, the 42hr chart shows a slightly negatively tilted trough, which is more than can be said of earlier runs.

Some posters on WWBB (which I cannot logon to right now!) have been mentioning that the 500mb charts appear to be great for a big snowstorm, but the model isn't showing one (except for the immediate coast) because it continues to go with the two-low idea. If this idea is indeed incorrect and we end up with a single low pressure center, I'd have to think this could be a pretty significant I-95 event.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:29 pm

At 48hrs coastal areas from DE to LI continue to receive significant precipitation... here's the total QPF at that point:

And the 500mb (if only we could have this 6-10 hours earlier!!):

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:34 pm

WOW... BIG difference at 54hrs as a strong 500 low has developed and the storm has tracked much more northward as opposed to the 12z run... NJ continues to get hammered! If this is a trend this could be big... even if it isn't , watch out in NJ.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:44 pm

Absolutely incredible... this thing is a monster by 60hrs w/ a big negatively tilted trough and sub-540dm ULL, and the low is still sitting just far enough offshore to keep the snow confined to the coastal areas... but right along the coast it's snowing like hell! QPF implies 20-30 inches for parts of SE NJ.

mdguy25 · #5 Postby **mdguy25** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:47 pm

What a SHARP cut-off from this.. somebody will be mighty disappointed.. right now thats us in the I-95 corridor though the trend is going our way.. BTW OCEAN CITY, MD.. gets CRUSHED this run.. though I haven't checked soundings {rain/snow} for area..

Craig286 · #6 Postby **Craig286** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:49 pm

I think ive missed my NVA foot of snow 50-100 miles to my east

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:49 pm

my God, it pays to live near the coast! 20-30'' of snow! WHAT this is absolutely insane. Do you really think it is possible, if you cut that in half it still would be big, GOD. I almost died when I saw that!!!!!

wrkh99 · #8 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:52 pm

20 or 30 inches ????

What are you looking at willis ?

verycoolnin · #9 Postby **verycoolnin** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:54 pm

a very interesting run

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:54 pm

look at the model thats a huge snow total! for the coast.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:55 pm

wrkh99 wrote:20 or 30 inches ????

What are you looking at willis ?

If you look at the total QPF as of 60hrs there is an area of coastal southern NJ that receives 2-3" liquid equivalent.

That said, evans1, 20-30" is certainly not being shown for your area. It looks more like 10-15" for inland central Jersey, but the cutoff is very sharp from east to west, so the farther southeast you are (even by a few miles) the better.

Damn, if this run verifies I will be depressed for weeks... it's one thing to have a storm miss you, but when everyone else gets it and you're shafted by 50 or 60 miles... :grr:

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:58 pm

I do not live in Inland Central NJ, go to mapquest, I'm like 4 or 5 miles from the beach, either way 10+ is still good. All this aside, I was one WWBB and someone had a good point, this model could be a fluke, if the models show the same tonight than we can get excited.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:02 pm

1evans wrote:I do not live in Inland Central NJ, go to mapquest, I'm like 4 or 5 miles from the beach, either way 10+ is still good. All this aside, I was one WWBB and someone had a good point, this model could be a fluke, if the models show the same tonight than we can get excited.

Ah... sorry about that, you are close to the shore. In that case it looks like this run at face value is an 18-24" storm for your location.

I definitely agree, though... don't get too excited till we see some type of consistency. Given the massive differences over the past few runs, who knows what it'll be showing next.

Cheesy_Poofs · #14 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:04 pm

Brett and mdguy25-- This run is VERY disappointing for us!! :cry:

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:07 pm

18-24 would be the storm of the season, I really hope that this was not just a bad run. Hey, this could be the one we were waiting for, along the coast anyway, is this a reliable model? I am not holding my breath until later tonight, then I will get excited if it shows the same.

Heady Guy · #16 Postby **Heady Guy** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:12 pm

you have to remeber the ETA really over does the qpf. Should cut it in 1/2..but still looks very good for coastal areas.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:12 pm

1evans wrote:18-24 would be the storm of the season, I really hope that this was not just a bad run. Hey, this could be the one we were waiting for, along the coast anyway, is this a reliable model? I am not holding my breath until later tonight, then I will get excited if it shows the same.

Well, the ETA is notorious for overdoing precipitation amounts like this, so don't expect the extreme amounts it's showing to actually materialize even if its track is dead on. Just a few weeks ago with the storm that gave NYC 8-12", there was one run of the ETA that had been showing extreme QPF amounts like this, and of course they never verified. However, I do think you're in one of the best possible locations for this storm... you should be far enough north to avoid any problems with temperatures, and I'd be willing to bet you get at least some precipitation out of it. In the best case scenario this could probably be a 12-20" event up there, but like you said, let's wait for the 00z runs.

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:15 pm

Yea, Yea. I got you. 12-18 seem to be a good consensus. When do those models come out.

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:27 pm

20 to 30 inches of snow is severely insane.

Hey 1evans, I am moving to the NJ beach and build myself a hut there. If you need some assistance shoveling out from this imminent snow monster, I'll be glad to come on up and rescue your town from this HUGE incomprehensible snowfall about to envelop it. Your malls will have mounds of plowed snow taller than the streetlights.

People there will be wandering around in a daze for days.

WOW, Is all I can say.

This winter PROVES it PAYS to live on the Coast.

-Jeb

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:32 pm

Jeb, I'm as shocked and dumbfounded as you are. The 18z ETA showed nothing for something like four+ runs and now this, i'm not overly optomistic. Sure, I would love for this to happen. The GGEM had something like this for a very consistant run and I think the models are now catching on. I feel very confident that there will be in excess of at least 8 inches of snow, NO MIXING, that's the best part!

I think I may get a snowblower after hearing this!

18z ETA

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