Nor'easter to rake Cape May to Montauk Point

[donsutherland1]

After examining a number of past analogs and the computer guidance, I believe a reasonable case can be made for a track that would fall somewhere between that of the 2/16 0Z GGEM and the 2/16 12Z ETA. The 18Z ETA is somewhere in that middle ground.

In addition, I lean toward a more consolidated system than that shown by the 12Z ETA.

With a positive PNA and a neutral NAO, I do not believe that this system will be readily kicked harmlessly out to sea. Still, it will likely pass far enough offshore so as to avoid bringing a significant snowfall (6" or more) to the big I-95 cities.

In general, look for the following:

1) A razor-sharp cutoff between accumulating snows and a dusting or less
2) A track where the storm heads northeastward from near or just north of Cape Hatteras
3) Heaviest precipitation on the Coast and offshore
4) A mainly if not wholly snow event for most coastal areas from coastal Delaware northward
5) The western extent of accumulating snows no further than 20-40 miles west of I-95

Right now, in terms of accumulations, my initial idea is for the following:

<b>A coating or less:</b>
Boston, Danbury, Hartford, Peekskill, Worcester

<b>1"-3"; Low risk of 3"-6"</b>
Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, Washington, DC (DCA)

<b>High risk of 3"-6"; Low risk of 6"-10":</b>
Babylon, Richmond, Salisbury, Wilmington, DE

<b>High risk of 6"-10"; Low Risk of more than 10":</b>
Cape May, Montauk Point, Ocean City

For the I-95 cities, I really wish that I could be more optimistic. Hopefully, the upcoming runs of the ECMWF and GGEM will offer greater encouragement.

[Management]

Don,

Exellent analysis and not too different than my thoughts. I dont know what kind of ratios S-NJ and E-LI will get but if its 10:1 or close to it expect accumultion up to a foot in spots with an average of 6 - 8 inches based on current guidance. Still plenty of time and as the actual energy approaches the East coast this evening, I'd expect guidance to gain a much better and hopefully shared projection. I am preparing a firsty call map shortly. Nyc/Upton and MT Holly will have some long nights as will most of the TV mets and stations and board members.

Again very good diagnosis!


Regards
Tony


PS Any idea how to get on the other forum? I havent been able to post since last night.

[Anonymous]

I like that 6-8 total. Where do you see a foot most likely along the coast. There will be some mixing in cape may and those areas so that will have to be taken into consideration.

[RU848789]

Hope you're right, since I live right on the I-95 corridor (about 25 miles SW of Central Park, with both the NE corridor train and the NJ Turnpike actually going through/or bordering our town, Metuchen) and would at least rather see 1-3" than the zero many are calling for.

One question: are you referring to OC NJ or MD?

[donsutherland1]

Tony,

Thanks for the kind words.

I have little idea what the problem at WWBB might be. It appears that virtually all accounts created after a certain date (but not those created today) are having problems. Initially, I thought a news article that was said to be in the works was published and this accounted for a dramatic rise in visitors and the today's problems. Now, I'm not sure. The article does not appear to have been published, so this increasingly appears to be a database issue.

I hope that it will be resolved soon.

[donsutherland1]

RU848789,

I was referring to Ocean City, MD. I do expect a changeover there.

[donsutherland1]

1evans,

I think a few spots might pick up a foot of snow, but in many places experiencing the heaviest precipitation, some mixing and even a change to rain is likely--probably as far north as the central NJ coast.

[Erica]

Don, I like all the ideas you talked about except for number 5, we both know how unstable tight precipitation gradients are, especially coming from the ETA.

[donsutherland1]

Erica,

Good point. Given the uncertainty, #5 is a risky proposition.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Don-- When does the ECMWF come out?

[Anonymous]

Don-- When does the ECMWF come out?

It comes out on the official site (http://www.ecmwf.int) around 6:00 PM, but the graphics there are pure crap and it's hard to make out even the basics of what the model is trying to convey. The data is publicly released between 5:00 and 8:20 or so, during which time the PSC site will gradually update and you can get better graphics there.

[Erica]

Don-- When does the ECMWF come out?

It's usually updated around or just after 8:00PM at wright-weather. Here's the link

http://web.wright-weather.com/ecmwf-nh.shtml

No password is required. has the ECMWF out to 10 days/240 hours.

[Stephanie]

Well, I could be snow-bound in Atlantic City and where I live, 50 miles north, will still be some decent snow. Thanks!

[donsutherland1]

Overall, last night's and this morning's runs of the computer guidance have solidified the idea toward the more conservative "high risk" amounts noted yesterday. At the same time, some of those amounts need to be pared back, mainly in the areas in which they were highest.

Obviously, for those living to west of the I-95 Corridor and even in the Corridor itself, this is not a happy turn of events.

For Bostonians, whose city remained just outside the picture of accumulating snows, the double agony of an extension of the ongoing "snow pause" and the New York Yankees' trading for Alex Rodriguez will inflict additional pain. The New England Patriots' triumph though continues to offer New Englanders some solace for this heartache.

A more favorable pattern that appears to lie ahead also furnishes fresh hope for Beantown and surrounding areas such as Lexington and Concord--places at which the early story of the American Revolution was written. The QBO's switching to west and growing indications of a near-term switch to a negative NAO appear ready to write the story of the closing days of February and the opening days of March. Thus even as the upcoming prospects for a nor'easter dwindle, winter appears to be gathering its ammunition for another stand under the cover of what appears to be a disappointing turn of events.

Nevertheless, before then, the harsh reality of a storm passing so close (distance from the I-95 Corridor) and yet so far (the heaviest snow shield remaining offshore) must be confronted.

Given the latest guidance coupled with earlier thinking, some modifications are in order. In terms of accumulations, my latest thoughts are as follows:

<b>Nothing more than a few flurries at most:</b>
Boston, Danbury, Hartford, Peekskill, Worcester

<b>Generally 0.5"-2.5"</b>
Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, Washington, DC, Wilmington, DE (DCA)

<b>Generally 2"-4" with local amounts of 6":</b>
Babylon, Cape May, Ocean City, Richmond, Salisbury

<b>Generally 4"-8" with isolated amounts near 10":</b>
Montauk Point, Nantucket

Again, as noted earlier, these figures are generally just a little less than the earlier "high risk" amounts with the largest reductions occurring in those areas that were identified as "high risk" of the highest amounts. It now appears that given a somewhat more offshore track, lighter amounts + more mixing will occur in some of the coastal areas (due to less dynamic cooling, etc.). Thus amounts for Cape May and Ocean City were reduced most.

The I-95 Corridor from Washington, DC to Providence was reduced just a little, but again for most places the lower amounts of the range were always the more likely.

All said, this is a storm where our friends in eastern Canada, along with the fish, will share the glories of a major snowfall.

[JCT777]

Nice analysis, Don. I look forward to a better snow chance for my area next week, and hopefully a few chances during the first half of March.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks John,

I strongly believe there will be more chances. This was winter's chance to flirt with us. With this storm winter is teasing us while treating the fish and our friends in eastern Canada. Always seeing the proverbial glass as "half full," I believe winter is offering us a hint for the not-too-distant future when the jet stream begins its northward trek, suppression eases, and cold air remains to be tapped.

P.S. It should be noted that one of S2K's newest members--Kelly, a meteorology student--deserves credit for first seeing the potential of this system even if it didn't deliver for us. The fact remains that this system will develop into a major storm, though the bulk of its snows will miss us and fall offshore and then in eastern Canada.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don, Good Analysis! ( I believe our turn will be in Late Feb or early March) After all, March 1960 would be nice..... over 19 inches in Boston. ( A event like March 1960)

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Chris.

Are you off from school this week? If so, enjoy your vacation.

Looking at the brighter side of things, if you are off from school this week, a snowstorm would not have brought you a snow day. Such a system whether it is next week or sometime in early March could do so.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Why Yes, I am, Don. I am off.

[weatherfan]

I agree Don it is very dissapointing for those who wanted more snow in the I-95.However as the old saying gos.You win some and you lose some.However it is not over yet.Winter like these where they have been reather dissapointing there have been some like this winters patterns where it has ended with a very big bang.With a few big storms.So the I-95 citys I would be very shock if you did it get 1 or 2 major winter storms eather late Febuarey this month or March.