Tonight's Euro?

[Anonymous]

Anyone have any analysis of the Euro tonight?Any change from the dradful looking 10-day yesterday?Also, could someone link me to the 10-day avg on Plymouth?I can't seem to find it...

[Anonymous]

Here's the ECMWF 10-day mean:



I don't know what to make of it... obviously the trough in the West is a bad sign (-PNA), but what about the PV in SE Canada and the somewhat -NAO? Perhaps a pro could comment...

[Anonymous]

Looks much better/more reasonable to me than last nights-last night also had the -NAO and the 50/50 low, but had higher heights in the NE for some reason. The -PNA is somewhat disheartening, but as long as the NAO stays negative as well we should have continued cold/snow chances.Of course I am a rank amateur so I could be way off base, but that is how it looks to me. Could you post the link so I can bookmark it?

[Anonymous]

Nevermind, found it. I'd love to hear coments from some pros on this run, NAO looks mainly negative, PV looks to set up in SE Canada from day seven on...

[Anonymous]

Could you post the link so I can bookmark it?

Actually I just downloaded the image from the PSC site and uploaded it to my free web space, so don't bookmark it, it's not the actual source. Here's the link to the PSC site:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html

From there just choose ECMWF and 10-Day and you'll be set.

[weatherscope]

day 10...
500mb hgts on the east coast in the 5400/5600 w/weak -nao w/a nice block in place...Seems like the euro wants to develope a weak Omega high on day 7 in the plains up to central canada[ridging]....In this pattern the pacific Jet comes back meaning less cold in the east....polar jet will not dominate,so thier will be more inland runners...Brett is right about the-pna/trough in the wast bringing warmth to the east..

[yoda]

So does that mean the Mid-Atlantic won't see another 6"+ snowstorm for the rest of this winter??

[weatherscope]

So does that mean the Mid-Atlantic won't see another 6"+ snowstorm for the rest of this winter??

No it does not mean that....Normal temp's for a change....But then again the euro may go the other way at 12z thurs....I will take the canadian model this winter....!!

[yoda]

Have you heard the reports of a possible storm next Wed.?

and HM on WWBB says a big storm in early march?

Oh well we will see!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

HM says 2 threats, one next weekend, and the other in March.... ( first 10 days)

[yoda]

I heard about the one in March... but next weekend?

I thought it was Wed.-Thurs.... we shall see!

[Erica]

So does that mean the Mid-Atlantic won't see another 6"+ snowstorm for the rest of this winter??

No. It doesn't mean the Mid Atlantic can't see another 6"+ even the rest of the winter. Everyone should just relax.

Looking at the day 10 above, the trough is in Scandinavia, which teleconnects to a trough in the eastern part of the country. If the block over the central Atlantic can get pulled further northwest toward Greenland and send the NAO strongly negative, and the 500 low over southeast canada becomes the new 50/50 low, things could get very exciting. Basically, it's a war of teleconnections, the Negative PNA would suggest a ridge off the southeast coast, and the trough in Scandinavia would suggest the trough is in the east.

However, if that does become the new 50/50 low, and blocking gets established, I don't think the southeast ridge will make much of a comeback.

In order to really get a strong southeast ridge, you cant have a 50/50 low or any kind of blocking.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I heard about the one in March... but next weekend?

I thought it was Wed.-Thurs.... we shall see!

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showt ... adid=25495


There is the thread...

[weatherscope]

So does that mean the Mid-Atlantic won't see another 6"+ snowstorm for the rest of this winter??

No. It doesn't mean the Mid Atlantic can't see another 6"+ even the rest of the winter. Everyone should just relax.

Looking at the day 10 above, the trough is in Scandinavia, which teleconnects to a trough in the eastern part of the country. If the block over the central Atlantic can get pulled further northwest toward Greenland and send the NAO strongly negative, and the 500 low over southeast canada becomes the new 50/50 low, things could get very exciting. Basically, it's a war of teleconnections, the Negative PNA would suggest a ridge off the southeast coast, and the trough in Scandinavia would suggest the trough is in the east.

However, if that does become the new 50/50 low, and blocking gets established, I don't think the southeast ridge will make much of a comeback.

In order to really get a strong southeast ridge, you cant have a 50/50 low or any kind of blocking.

Bingo!!...50/50 Low and -nao will flatten south east ridge....I dont see the southeast ridge/Or the 850mb Thermal Ridge on east coast....

[paul e]

If anybody cares what LC has to say about it, he put out an interim newsletter tonight based on the strength of that euro run! I dont want to quote much cause he doesnt like it, but briefly, he says the euro is continuing the trend of making an big rex block with Omega signature over the north atlantic, which he says will be stronglyl associated with two strong storms.

The first occurs this weekend, sat and sunday, which he says a Rain to HEAVY SNOW scenario for Pa, NJ, up through new england into eastern canada in a coastal scenario!! He terms it ' a major-impact winter storm for much of the northeast'!

The second follows a week later... So, tonights near miss he says is just an appetizer for two biggies in the near future. Id say thats Perty Exciting, given the frustration around here this evening.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I hope LC is Right, Paul. THis Weekend..... and Next Week!

[weatherscope]

If anybody cares what LC has to say about it, he put out an interim newsletter tonight based on the strength of that euro run! I dont want to quote much cause he doesnt like it, but briefly, he says the euro is continuing the trend of making an big rex block with Omega signature over the north atlantic, which he says will be stronglyl associated with two strong storms.

The first occurs this weekend, sat and sunday, which he says a Rain to HEAVY SNOW scenario for Pa, NJ, up through new england into eastern canada in a coastal scenario!! He terms it ' a major-impact winter storm for much of the northeast'!

The second follows a week later... So, tonights near miss he says is just an appetizer for two biggies in the near future. Id say thats Perty Exciting, given the frustration around here this evening.

...Rn to Sn ...cant'nt see this happening fri/sat....w/above hts and modified canadian air...18z gfs does show some overunning/waa precip breaking out day 7-8

[Erica]

Let's look at our options. Here's the day 3 European;



The European says that the system effecting the East Coast now becomes the new 50/50 low on day 4, which becuase the modified omega ridge is out over the central atlantic, the 50/50 low could potentially turn the NAO negative.



If this is correct, then the s/w across the midwest is forced to track more southeast. The front running surface low moves northeast into the eastern Great Lakes region, and then would be forced to transfer energy to the coast, in a Miller type B situation.



The only thing that we are really lacking here is the big cold high pressure area over Quebec to set-up a good cold air damming situation east of the mountains. If we had that, then yes, I could see this being something big.