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Erica wrote:Ok, I would really like to hear a solid, meteorologically backed reason (guessing and gut feelings don't count here) why you don't think the I-95 corridor will see another 8 Inch or greater snowstorm this winter?
BigEyedFish wrote:Erica...that is a fair question. It is great to read the thoughts of professionals like yourself.
I certainly am I not an expert.
Here is my reasoning...some based on actual maps, some on history, and some on gut.
1. Computer models give you an idea what might happen, but you have to look at other factors before buying into early model runs. (Local Mets screaming the big one for Richmond this week, I don't think so)
2. For these areas to have snow, you basically need H-pressure to the N, and an active STJ feeding to a L, blow up and run up the coast.
3. Timing, postion of the L, and enough cold air are the critical for snow here.
4. Patterns that appear in Summer, tend to effect the Winter pattern. Hot/dry summer = cold/wet winter...not always, but it does seem to trend that way.
5. It's not that much of a stretch to say I-95 from Richmond to BWI, would not see a 8+ snow the rest of the winter. This is usually where the rain/snow line sets-up anyway.
6. This year the timing of the cold, was not when you had an active STJ.
7. Last year, very snowy, would suggest not as snowy this year and the summer was cooler and rainy.
8. It's Feb. 18th, the window of opportunity for a major snow in these areas is rapidly closing, with the end by the second week in March.
9. We can add the 50/50, the trough in the E, negative block, etc...but I just don't see ALL of these elements coming together the rest of the winter....at least for this area.
10. I know this does not count but my gut tells me it's over.
BigEyedFish wrote:Erica...that is a fair question. It is great to read the thoughts of professionals like yourself.
I certainly am I not an expert.
Here is my reasoning...some based on actual maps, some on history, and some on gut.
1. Computer models give you an idea what might happen, but you have to look at other factors before buying into early model runs. (Local Mets screaming the big one for Richmond this week, I don't think so)
2. For these areas to have snow, you basically need H-pressure to the N, and an active STJ feeding to a L, blow up and run up the coast.
3. Timing, postion of the L, and enough cold air are the critical for snow here.
4. Patterns that appear in Summer, tend to effect the Winter pattern. Hot/dry summer = cold/wet winter...not always, but it does seem to trend that way.
5. It's not that much of a stretch to say I-95 from Richmond to BWI, would not see a 8+ snow the rest of the winter. This is usually where the rain/snow line sets-up anyway.
6. This year the timing of the cold, was not when you had an active STJ.
7. Last year, very snowy, would suggest not as snowy this year and the summer was cooler and rainy.
8. It's Feb. 18th, the window of opportunity for a major snow in these areas is rapidly closing, with the end by the second week in March.
9. We can add the 50/50, the trough in the E, negative block, etc...but I just don't see ALL of these elements coming together the rest of the winter....at least for this area.
10. I know this does not count but my gut tells me it's over.
Chris the Weather Man wrote:Yes, Erica. Although, 2002-2003, ( If that PD2 did not happened), it would have been a Normal snowfall. It did, And I am happy, it did... But As for this year, 2004. Look for one heck of a March.......
Erica wrote:Chris the Weather Man wrote:Yes, Erica. Although, 2002-2003, ( If that PD2 did not happened), it would have been a Normal snowfall. It did, And I am happy, it did... But As for this year, 2004. Look for one heck of a March.......
I agree with you, and it would not take much either for one or two significant events to bump the Washington DC to Philadelphia corridor well above normal for the winter. From say fredricksburg Virginia, on south through Richmond, the chances of seeing a 8+ event are less, but a 4+ event is still quite likely. North of Philadelphia, the winter isn't even close to being over, and the chances for a 12+ event are still very much alive.
As for the 1983, 1993, and 2003 pattern, It's probably just a coincidence.
Erica wrote:hmmm, I never really thought of that, it could be related in some indirect way, but what i think they were trying to say was that a major east coast snowstorm the likes of those three events occur once every decade on the 3rd year in. Which I don' think is right, having no other explanation aside from the link to volcanic ash, but is it really a link at all because in 2003, the atmosphere was free of really any ash or aerosol. it would probably only work for 1983 and 1993.
The only other thing I can think of that would relate the three is their respective position in the 11 year solar cycle, and while the solar numbers don't match exactly, they were roughly at the same position in the cycle,
[list=http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/correlation/solar.data]
February 2003 Value: 1245
March 1993 Value: 1364
February 1983: 1226
Now, here's where some of the differences might be, both 1973 and 1963 were at different positions in their respective cycles.
So it does appaer as if there might be a bit ore of a connection than what I initially gave credit for. The other common thing here between the 1983, 1993, and 2003 events was El Nino. Eventhough, the 1983 El nino was very strong, in 1993, and 2003 it was on the weaker side.
However, that doesn't mean that another similar event can't or won't occur this winter.
Three major volcanic eruptions took place between 1812 and 1817. Soufriere on St. Vincent Island erupted in 1812; Mayon in the Philippines in 1814; and Tarnbora on the island of Sumbawa in Indonesia in 1815. The worst was Tambora, a 13,000-foot volcano that belched f1ame and ash from April 7 to 12, 1815; and rained stone fragments on surrounding villages.
It has been estimated that Tambora's titanic explosion blew from 37 to 100 cubic miles of dust, ashes, and cinders into the atmosphere, generating a globe-girdling veil of volcanic dust.
The idea that volcanic dust suspended in the atmosphere might lower the Earth's temperature has been around for a long time. Like many other scientific firsts, it can be traced to Benjamin Franklin, although the thought may not have been original with him. In 1913, William Humphreys published a now classic paper documenting the correlation between historic volcanic eruptions and worldwide temperature depressions.
According to Humphreys, volcanic dust is some 30 times more effective in keeping the Sun's radiation out than in keeping the Earth's in. And once blown into the atmosphere-more specifically; the stratosphere it may take years for the dust to settle out (the finest particles from Krakatoa's eruption in 1883, for example, took 2 to 3 years to reach the ground.) During this period the average temperature of the whole world may drop a degree or two; while local losses can be considerably greater.
The chief effect however, as in 1816, seems to be the dramatic depression of minimum temperatures during the summer. A weak sunspot maximum also preceded the cold summer of 1816. During May and June, these blemishes on the face of the Sun grew large enough to be seen with the naked eye and people squinted at them through smoked glass.
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