12z Wed ECMWF has Major Storm

[Anonymous]

Today's run of the European has a HELL of a storm Day 7... however, it's not clear to my eyes whether or not there will be sufficient cold air when it hits the East Coast. The low is already tracking fairly far north (through SE MO / NW MS) at this point, so if this is going to be wintry east of the mountains it had better redevelop with a cold high moving in. The obvious -NAO signature should help us out in that category. What is clear is that a 540dm upper-level low over Mississippi is something that bears watching !

500mb Day 7:



Surface Day 7:

[molecules]

Colder air will be a problem for most given the Low being around 980

[Anonymous]

Colder air will be a problem for most given the Low being around 980

I guess we'll have to wait to see the "real" graphics to confirm this, but I'd tend to agree given the surface map depicted by tonight's run... the only saving grace would be strong cold air damming setting up as the storm approaches. But my view on this is that the simple fact that the EC has a very intense upper-level low in the southern U.S. should be sending an alert that a major event is possible somewhere in the eastern part of the country... who knows whether or not the surface details are accurate on any individual run. Let's see what the other models and future runs of the Euro have to say about it over the next few days.

[Stormsfury]

Until the Plymouth Maps come out, but IF there's NO CAD signature, this COULD imply (based on those crappy graphics), the first major severe weather outbreak of the season ...

[Erica]

hmmm, this bares quite a bit of watching, and infact both the GFS 12z and 18z runs had the system as well, but suppressed. I dont't theink the concern is the amount of cold air in place, it's moreso whether or not it can come up the coast.

The GFS 18z run was quite a hit for the lower mid Atlantic, say from Washington DC south. North of Philadelphia, there isn't much to speak of.







The 12z run was further north, so I wouldin't worry. theres plenty of time for the track to shift north and the Philadelphia to Boston Corridor to be affected.

Generally most Major east coast snowstorms (which effect the whole I-95 corridor) occur on Weekends, where as lower Mid Atlantic Major winter storms take place during the middle of the week (wednesday/Thursday). This would be a Wednesday and Thursday event.

[Erica]

Until the Plymouth Maps come out, but IF there's NO CAD signature, this COULD imply (based on those crappy graphics), the first major severe weather outbreak of the season ...

The Wright-weather graphics are alot better than the Plymouth ones. By the way, the GFS did have some Cold air damming signature onthe 18z run with the high to the northwest making it possible.

http://web.wright-weather.com/ecmwf-nh.shtml

[molecules]

Colder air will be a problem for most given the Low being around 980

I guess we'll have to wait to see the "real" graphics to confirm this, but I'd tend to agree given the surface map depicted by tonight's run... the only saving grace would be strong cold air damming setting up as the storm approaches. But my view on this is that the simple fact that the EC has a very intense upper-level low in the southern U.S. should be sending an alert that a major event is possible somewhere in the eastern part of the country... who knows whether or not the surface details are accurate on any individual run. Let's see what the other models and future runs of the Euro have to say about it over the next few days.

Very Very true 2 early to tell the accuarcy on the surface maps at this time.
This is something to watch sn or rn at this time especially along the east coast. "beaches"

[Anonymous]

The Wright-weather graphics are alot better than the Plymouth ones.

I agree... it's a shame they don't update as the data rolls in like the PSC does though.

[Stormsfury]

Until the Plymouth Maps come out, but IF there's NO CAD signature, this COULD imply (based on those crappy graphics), the first major severe weather outbreak of the season ...

The Wright-weather graphics are alot better than the Plymouth ones. By the way, the GFS did have some Cold air damming signature onthe 18z run with the high to the northwest making it possible.

http://web.wright-weather.com/ecmwf-nh.shtml

Yeah, I just looped the GFS maps and saw the configuration hints ... AND also, the GFS shows a secondary developing off the Carolina coasts ... basically now it's a wait and see when the Plymouth/WW maps are updated ...

We're heading into the volatile months in regards to severe weather and potential extreme late winter weather events and the GFS/ECMWF are definitely hinting at the possibilities ...

Forecast ENS mean ... NAO tanks NEG at the time of the progged developing storm ...


Forecasted PNA ENS mean ... generally a mod PNA pattern indication ...



General consensus of a NEG AO ...



IF cold air damming becomes a factor and we begin to see continued strong hints, obviously, the potential for a major storm looms .... based on what I've seen today, a Miller B scenario does look quite possible, UNLESS ... the SFC low/500mb feature raises heights and brings a substantial amount of WAA. (and more likely a Miller A scenario)

There's gonna be a fight over teleconnections ... Strong NF Low vs. SE ridge ... which argue against each other ... gonna be yet another forecasting nightmare ahead in the cards ...

SF

[Erica]

Until the Plymouth Maps come out, but IF there's NO CAD signature, this COULD imply (based on those crappy graphics), the first major severe weather outbreak of the season ...

The Wright-weather graphics are alot better than the Plymouth ones. By the way, the GFS did have some Cold air damming signature onthe 18z run with the high to the northwest making it possible.

http://web.wright-weather.com/ecmwf-nh.shtml

Yeah, I just looped the GFS maps and saw the configuration hints ... AND also, the GFS shows a secondary developing off the Carolina coasts ... basically now it's a wait and see when the Plymouth/WW maps are updated ...

We're heading into the volatile months in regards to severe weather and potential extreme late winter weather events and the GFS/ECMWF are definitely hinting at the possibilities ...

Forecast ENS mean ... NAO tanks NEG at the time of the progged developing storm ...


Forecasted PNA ENS mean ... generally a mod PNA pattern indication ...



General consensus of a NEG AO ...



IF cold air damming becomes a factor and we begin to see continued strong hints, obviously, the potential for a major storm looms .... based on what I've seen today, a Miller B scenario does look quite possible, UNLESS ... the SFC low/500mb feature raises heights and brings a substantial amount of WAA. (and more likely a Miller A scenario)

There's gonna be a fight over teleconnections ... Strong NF Low vs. SE ridge ... which argue against each other ... gonna be yet another forecasting nightmare ahead in the cards ...

SF

If it is Southeast Ridge vs. The blocking and 50/50 low, then the system will have a better chance of effecting the I-95 corridor more significantly.

[Colin]

Well, it's over already. It being on Wed/Thurs...another supressed system most likely. I give up.

[molecules]

colin.....you seem a little ( - ) no offense, but I do agree this will not be a coastal storm. Another southern runner swimming w/ the fishes and to warm for NC/VA area

March 2004 is the call for this year more favorable conditions

[wharrell]

Another fantasy storm

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Well, it's over already. It being on Wed/Thurs...another supressed system most likely. I give up.

Your giving up on a storm SEVEN days away?

[SacrydDreamz]

12z GGEM has a great CAD signature with massive overrunning. I don't believe cold air will generally be a problem north of the NC/VA line. If NC is to get in on the action (4"+) I think we'd better see some CAD as is shown on the GGEM. GFS looks decent at this range with regard to CAD signature.. it tends to strenghten over time. We shall see, definitely bears watching. Best chance of a 12"+ snow in VA this year IMO.

[Anonymous]

Generally most Major east coast snowstorms (which effect the whole I-95 corridor) occur on Weekends, where as lower Mid Atlantic Major winter storms take place during the middle of the week (wednesday/Thursday). This would be a Wednesday and Thursday event.

are you serious? You have got to be kidding lol. You think storms know what day of the week it is? LMAO--its all coincidence...

the storm says"We cant go up the coast because its thursday....Had it been saturday..then we would of turned up"

[JQ Public]

Generally most Major east coast snowstorms (which effect the whole I-95 corridor) occur on Weekends, where as lower Mid Atlantic Major winter storms take place during the middle of the week (wednesday/Thursday). This would be a Wednesday and Thursday event.

Is there a scientific reason for this or smthg that usually happens and can't be explained?

[Anonymous]

Generally most Major east coast snowstorms (which effect the whole I-95 corridor) occur on Weekends, where as lower Mid Atlantic Major winter storms take place during the middle of the week (wednesday/Thursday). This would be a Wednesday and Thursday event.

Is there a scientific reason for this or smthg that usually happens and can't be explained?

A few weeks ago DT posted on this topic on WWBB:

There has been RECENT RESEARCH that has been cited here many times as well as by JB and by Joe D'Aleo that shows over the past 20+ years MORE rain and snow DOES fall over the Northeast US over weekends.

The reason ? air pollution during the week builds up so that IF some sort of cold front or Low is developing *** IF*** then the water vapor has more suspended particuli to work with.

The problem is that you are so filled with hate towrds me that it never occurred to you I might be right.

Other than that, I'm not sure there's a meteorological explanation, but if you look at all the major snowstorms for the I-95 corridor over the past few decades, it's startling how few of them were not in the Friday-Monday period.

[Superstorm]

Brett, you think this storm has a good chance of bringing snow to our area?

[yoda]

We will have to watch the trends very closely..... hoping for a goos storm here in D.C.

Also, since temps here in D.C will be in 50s for the next few days.... won't be harder for colder temps to re-establish themselves here in the Mid-Atlantic?