Which model picked up the '93 storm?/Euro/GFS same page?Day7

[yoda]

I have a question... does anybody remember which model first picked up the 1993 March superstorm? Or the 1996 storm?

Also... interesting.... the Day 7 ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE SAME????? gfs has a 1000 low a bit farther to the south, ECMWF 986 low over N. MS? VERY interesting... extrapolating would show the POTENTIAL for A MAJOR SNOWSTORM for MA and NE = (reminscent of 93? or 69?)

Again, IT IS 7 DAYS OUT... I WILL WATCH VERY CLOSELY... HOPING FOR A STORM, and not a bust.... again!

(GFS at 150 hours has a 996 low off NC/SC coast... but at 156 hours its a 992 low moving.... well I don't know....

[yoda]

I have a question for either you SF or Erica, or whomever can anwer this question...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

This run shows a 1032 HIGH over Greenland, which I am guessing suggests a Greenland block.... the low is 988 by out to sea somewhat...

Why isn't the low coming up the coast with a Greenland Block...(if that's what it is)?

[Stormsfury]

I have a question for either you SF or Erica, or whomever can anwer this question...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

This run shows a 1032 HIGH over Greenland, which I am guessing suggests a Greenland block.... the low is 988 by out to sea somewhat...

Why isn't the low coming up the coast with a Greenland Block...(if that's what it is)?

Actually, the vortex depicted on that timeframe from the GFS is NOT a 50/50 low ... although, yes, there is blocking, however, (AT FACE VALUE ONLY) ... the PV is suppressing the system JUST ENOUGH as not to allow a phase and only to act as a kicker ...

I just got in, and this is the first that I've gotten to look at anything ...

[Erica]

I'm not exaxctly sure what it's going to do since the trough is backing up into the west as the RNA develops, which should mean that the ridge is going to try to come back along the southeast coast. But since the NAO is strongly negative, and the vortex is in place, it will be a war between the teleconnections for dominance.

What may end up happening (as the GFS depicted, but too late) is that the Subtropical branch energy does phase with the digging northern branch feature, but it's a question of timing. We would need to see the phasing happen futher back to the west, and the trough establish a strongly negative tilt before anything will be able to come up the coast. Rught now, I think areas from New York City south should be the most concerned, especially if the confluence zone is pretty far to the north and the surface low in the 990s.

This may be to suppressed for areas such as Boston or Hartford (northern sections of the I-95 corridor) to get invloved as well. Especially if phasing occurs too late.

The High to the north should set the stage for a nice cold air damming situation, maybe not to the degree of what we saw last year on president's day, but one of the more impressive cold air damming situations of the winter down into the Carolinas.

[Anonymous]

Erica...early odds on this being a major snowfall producing storm from points NYC southward to NC...1-10 with 10 high.

Please advise.

[Erica]

I have a question... does anybody remember which model first picked up the 1993 March superstorm? Or the 1996 storm?

Also... interesting.... the Day 7 ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE SAME????? gfs has a 1000 low a bit farther to the south, ECMWF 986 low over N. MS? VERY interesting... extrapolating would show the POTENTIAL for A MAJOR SNOWSTORM for MA and NE = (reminscent of 93? or 69?)

Again, IT IS 7 DAYS OUT... I WILL WATCH VERY CLOSELY... HOPING FOR A STORM, and not a bust.... again!

(GFS at 150 hours has a 996 low off NC/SC coast... but at 156 hours its a 992 low moving.... well I don't know....

Actually the ECMWF had the surface low over Memphis at 168 hours. The GFS was weaker. If we were extrapolating on the ECMWF it would be a significant event from roughly new york City (especially if the 500mb low is further north) down through Richmond. We would then assume the Surface low jumps to the North Carolina coast as phasing occurs, and then takes an east-northeast track, southeast of the benchmark, possibly as a very intense low (975-985mb?).

This pattern can't be trusted at all, and given the right scenario, it can lead to big things in terms of heavy snowfall. This may very well be one of them, or then again, perhaps another miss.

But again, this is alot of guesswork, later model runs should help us get a better feel for what's going on.

[Erica]

Erica...early odds on this being a major snowfall producing storm from points NYC southward to NC...1-10 with 10 high.

Please advise.

3-4.

I'm just setting the scene for what could possibly happen. I'm not making a forecast, yet, alot of things can change in the next 6 or 7 days.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the insight and input.

[Superstorm]

Erica, you said RNA pattern trying to develop after this storm, does that mean forget about Mar. 2-5?

[Erica]

I do see how this could become a big storm, though for sanity sake , I'm not going to discuss all of it right now. On the other hand though, I can also see how it would not be.

What I think we need to do here is break down major east coast snowstorms according to the days of the week in which they occur in order to get a better idea of what has happened historically, with a major storm threat in the Wednesday to Thursday (midweek) Timeframe.

Here's the list from the Kockin snowstorm book; Highlighted in yellow are events which took place completely during the week, with neither Saturday or Sunday included.

December 25-26, 1909
Saturday-Sunday
March 1-2, 1914
Sunday-Monday
April 3-4, 1915
Saturday-Sunday
February 6-7, 1920
Saturday-Sunday
January 27-29, 1922
Friday-Saturday
February 19-20, 1934
Monday-Tuesday
January 22-24, 1935
Tuesday-Thursday
February 14-15, 1940
Wednesday-Thursday
December 26-27, 1947
Friday-Saturday
March 18-19, 1956
Sunday-Monday
February 14-17, 1958
Saturday- Sunday
March 18-21, 1958
Tuesday-Thursday
March 4-5, 1960
Friday-Saturday
December 11-13, 1960
Friday-Saturday
January 18-20, 1961
Thursday-Friday
February 4-5, 1961
Friday-Saturday
January 12-13, 1964
Sunday-Monday
January 29-31, 1966
Sunday-Monday
December 23-25, 1966
Friday-Sunday
February 5-7, 1967
Friday-Saturday
February 8-10, 1969
Friday-Saturday
December 26-28, 1969
Friday-Sunday
February 18-20, 1972
Wednesaday-Thursday
Rain I-95 corridor
January 20-21, 1978
Friday-Saturday
February 18-20, 1979
Sunday-Monday
April 5-7, 1982
Monday-Wednesday
February 10-12, 1983
Friday-Saturday
January 21-23, 1987
Wednesday-Friday
January 25-26, 1987
Sunday-Monday
February 22-23, 1987
Sunday-Monday
March 12-14, 1993
Friday-Saturday
January 6-8, 1996
Saturday-Sunday

This would mean that 8/34 Kocin storms took place during the week and the other 26/34 events happened, either at the end of the week into the weekend, completely during the weekend, or began on the weekend and ended during the early half of the week. Very few events were just Weekday events.

So while it is more rare, it's not impossible to have a major east coast snowstorm happen during the week. However, the areas which they effect, and precipitation type as well as snowfall amounts may differ over a wide area.

[Erica]

Erica, you said RNA pattern trying to develop after this storm, does that mean forget about Mar. 2-5?

No, because as long as the blocking is there, the ridge will have a very hard time getting established. If it does at all.

[Valkhorn]

Erica, it seems to me the picking of days of the week is just arbitrary. Mother nature doesn't know what day of the week it is.

It's likely more of a coincidence than anything else.

[Erica]

Erica, it seems to me the picking of days of the week is just arbitrary. Mother nature doesn't know what day of the week it is.

It's likely more of a coincidence than anything else.

No, its not arbitrary, coincidental or insignificant in any way whatsoever. These are established trends in major east coast snowstorms which have been occuring over the past 100 years at least. It is a pattern, and one that's quite clear to most of those in the meteorological community.

FLguy, DT, Joe B, Drag, Paul Kocin, Joe D'Aleo, HM (7 of the best in the business today) and several others have discused and sited this same pattern many times. The most severe events are most likely to occur on the weekend, late week into the weekend, or weekend into the early week. The events which happen on the weekdays exclusively are alot tougher to predict, and usually aren't as severe for the major cities. Many times their significant (not major) snow producers, or rain or mixed precipitation events.

[Stormsfury]

IN regards to 1993 Superstorm ... (From WxRisk.com)

The 11-13 March 1993 Superstorm: Day 7 the ECMWF showed a 975 MB Low along the Immediate East Coast... The UKMET 968 over AOO... with the Nogaps and other Models showing a similar deep SECL. The old MRF at least this time did show a strong system (986 MB over RDU) but it was consistently too far inland and weakest of all the MR models. I will present the actual Model data from March 1993 shortly. When the event moved within 72 h and 60n hrs the AVN suddenly developed a perfect 968 MB Bomb over SBY MD...

Source of where the information came from ...

http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/MRforecasting.htm

[yoda]

Hey, the new EURO is right on target to give the DC area big snows!!! Hope this holds up.... no more busting is needed.... SF/Erica... is the ECMWF a good model in MR?

[Stormsfury]

Hey, the new EURO is right on target to give the DC area big snows!!! Hope this holds up.... no more busting is needed.... SF/Erica... is the ECMWF a good model in MR?

The ECMWF's verification scores the best in Medium Range Forecasting ... (the model is specifically designed for pattern recognition) ... although, this year, it's been a bit lackluster due to its known bias of mishandling southern stream energy. One other thing that has complicated (all the guidance) is the screaming PAC JET during most of the winter where there's a lack of data in the Northern Pacific ...