IS BASTARDI AN IDIOT... or is he on to something...?

[yoda]

His post today mentions that the MA and NE could see a MAJOR SNOWSTORM in the wed.-fri. time period....

And how exactly does the 500 mb heights play into effect?

Also... JB, stupid that he is, says winds of 40-60 mph along the VA CAPES....

HUH?!?! One platter of stupidness coming up....

[Heady Guy]

JB is a great long range forecaster...but he does hype everything to the extreme. He has been off this winter, from what I have heard.

[yoda]

I agree... but JB has been hyping up some storms too far...

He is a great forecaster in long range.... BUT if he's right with this storm... WATCH OUT!!!

[JCT777]

In defense of JB, most of the time he just mentions possibilities. It is true that the storm COULD affect the major cities from DC through Boston. This is the type of statement that will keep us snow lovers interested. Of course, it is also true that the storm COULD harmlessly pass by to the south. But you won't normally see JB emphasize that - as it would make the snow lovers upset.

[donsutherland1]

Several points are in order:

1) JB is among the nation's finest long-range forecasters
2) He did not say that it is a certainty that the storm will bring heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Rather, he suggested that it remained a "big question" as to how far north the storm would come.
3) With respect to winds at the Virginia Capes, he was talking about "onshore winds." There often is a substantial difference between winds on the shoreline/beach and those a few miles inland.
4) JB offered a scenario that would allow the storm to bring snow throughout New England but, as noted earlier, JB is not certain that this scenario will be realized. Rather, it is something to watch for.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Agreed, Don.

[hurricanedude]

JB stupid? I think not, thats why he is an ACCUWX Meteorologist....and well....your not!!

[Anonymous]

His post today mentions that the MA and NE could see a MAJOR SNOWSTORM in the wed.-fri. time period....

And how exactly does the 500 mb heights play into effect?

Also... JB, stupid that he is, says winds of 40-60 mph along the VA CAPES....

HUH?!?! One platter of stupidness coming up....

What's so stupid about that? Clearly most of the models are in agreement over a strong low moving off the Carolina coast the middle of next week, which would result in both of his possibilities becoming realities.

On a side note, I absolutely HATE when people turn forecasting into a big competition... they lose sight of what really matters: the weather itself. Why anyone would criticize Joe for mentioning all the possibilities rather than committing to one that he could easily have to flip-flop on two days later is beyond me. I subscribe to Joe's column not so I can brag that I have access to the best-verifying forecasts, as if it were a game or something, but because he posts great detailed dicussions with his insights, even if he doesn't commit one way or another till the short range. That way, I can look at the models and then see his expert opinion on which he believes are more plausible and what problems each of them may have.

In summary, if Joe wants to say "X will probably happen, but don't be too surprised if Y happens, and there's always the remote possibility that Z happens," I'm perfectly fine with that, and don't see how it is in any way inferior to someone who committs by saying "X is my forecast," only to have to change it a few days later.

[Erica]

His post today mentions that the MA and NE could see a MAJOR SNOWSTORM in the wed.-fri. time period....

And how exactly does the 500 mb heights play into effect?

Also... JB, stupid that he is, says winds of 40-60 mph along the VA CAPES....

HUH?!?! One platter of stupidness coming up....

Your post is way out of line.

I guess I feel as if it's my responsibility to come to the aid of my colleauges, but even besides that, he's one of the finest long range forecasters in the country, has over two decades of experience, and a more accomplished record than the majority of most other professionals. His column on Accuweather.com is the largest in the business today as well.

[donsutherland1]

Erica,

I fully agree with you that the post was out of line. Joe Bastardi is among the finest long-range forecasters anywhere. He was discussing a complex situation and one possible situation.

Unfortunately, the post in question also appears to have misinterpreted what JB had said at the time. He was not forecasting that the storm would come northward with certainty, rather suggesting that it was a possible out come and that "big questions" remained.

Later, many of the models did support a phased event that, if the models verify, would have the potential to bring a significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. NCEP'S discussion also made mention of a possible significant storm next week while noting that there were uncertainties.

In short, JB was discussing a plausible situation. And, he was not alone in this, as the NCEP discussion also offered similarities to JB's ideas.

In the end, if JB were not bringing significant value to AccuWeather and the weather community, he would neither be an expert senior forecaster at AccuWx nor would he be permitted to have a column that has a large base of subscribers (who would sign up if he were so bad?) nor cut a large number of videos for the public.

[Stephanie]

I agree with you Don and Erica. Though his tendency to over-hype and event can be frustrating at times, he obviously knows what he is talking about and would not be where he is today if he didn't.

[mf_dolphin]

My only problem with JB is that he goes over so many possibilities that he can always say he was right. It's very hard to pin him down on a forecast for the same reason. I'm not saying he a bad forecaster by any means but if you're looking for a commottment on "how many inches" in my backyard, he's the wrong guy lol

[OtherHD]

Sigh, everyone knows my opinion of JB. I think he is highly overrated. He may be talented, but he is severely overrated.

[Thunder44]

Does he hype, yes. Does that make him an idiot, no. He's very enthusatic about the weather. More than I've ever seen in any other met. Sometimes, I think this effects his judgement, but overall he's an excellent forecaster, and I think he's actually underrated by many other mets out there. Even within his own company.

[Anonymous]

Lets not loose sight of the fact, that he is a long range forcaster.He is more concerned about pattern recognition, and evolution then trying to nail down who's back yard gets a foot of snow.He is pretty good at that.