EURO: storm cancel

[NJSnowFreak]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

kills the system to the south...is the EURO holding the energy back too much?

It's the outlier now though...

[paul e]

Forget this run of the Euro. its so totally against every other model, that if ever there were a definition of 'outlier' this is it! Treat it like any other oulier. Wait and see if any of the Pro storm models start trending toward the extremely suppressed scenario of the Euro. Then, start to be concerned. but remember as of now, all the models have trended Opposite of the Euro. The Euro just hasnt come around yet. Its NOT invincible, despite its reputation.

[Erica]

The ECMWF is a clear outlier. And I'm not sure the run is even correct either. It goes completely against all the rest of the trends in the operational data today. I agree it should be treated as such unless the other models go back toward that solution.

And The ECMWF has not been preforming all that great this winter, at least not as good as it did last winter.

[molecules]

Relax it's just one run that might of had a hiccup.....Wait until Sundays model runs. No need to discount the storm or hype it any more then it has. Lets not honk the horns or sound the alarms until Sunday night or say storm is cancelled.

[sphinx]

The Euro may be an outlier, but it isn't alone. The Eta-extended also suppresses the storm to the south.

I say get excited now. Where I live (near DC), most storms are gone or rain by the time one really should get excited.

Question: When I look at GFS output, I see thicknesses and rainfall for the previous 6 or 12 hours. Are the thicknesses valid at the current time or are they averages over the 6 or 12 hour period. I'm guessing the former. For example, the 18z GFS is considerably warmer than the 12 Z run. It shows DC changing to snow fairly late in the event. If the thicknesses are averages over the 6-hr period, the run still argues for a significant snow event; however, if the thicknesses are valid at the current time I'm not so sure.

[Erica]

I wouldin't use 1000-500mb thicknesses or for that matter 1000-850mb/850mb-500mb partial thicknesses for precipitation type forecasting since they can miss warm layers aloft.

It's better to take a hard look at atmospheric soundings before making any kind of precipitation type forecasts. You can have 1000-500mb thicknesses above 5400, but still precipitation type might be snow becuase the vertical column is below freezing. The only way to determine whether or not that is fact is to look at soundings.

Thicknesses should be used with extreme caution, when considering precipitation type, at least in my opinion.

Thicknesses are better suited for use in forecasing snow to liquid ratios instead of precipitation type.

For example, 1000-500mb Thicknesses above 5400 would imply a less than 10:1 ratio (if the column is cold enough to support snow), thicknesses of 528 would imply at least a 17:1 ratio.

In other words, The lower the thickness value, the higher the ratio is. But even this is not a full proof method for forecasting ratios.

[Stormsfury]

The Euro may be an outlier, but it isn't alone. The Eta-extended also suppresses the storm to the south.

I say get excited now. Where I live (near DC), most storms are gone or rain by the time one really should get excited.

Question: When I look at GFS output, I see thicknesses and rainfall for the previous 6 or 12 hours. Are the thicknesses valid at the current time or are they averages over the 6 or 12 hour period. I'm guessing the former. For example, the 18z GFS is considerably warmer than the 12 Z run. It shows DC changing to snow fairly late in the event. If the thicknesses are averages over the 6-hr period, the run still argues for a significant snow event; however, if the thicknesses are valid at the current time I'm not so sure.

That's because the phasing it depicts occurs earlier for one, and takes the primary up to the Western Side of the Apps. in TN, with the secondary taking over off the Carolina Coast ...

However, the GFS is the worst model for picking up on CAD, and yet, it picks up on it already between the two lows AND the GFS MOS guidance reflects this ... for some reason, the 18z GFS is generally the warmest of that model's runs, and I don't generally take a lot of stock in its outputs ... however, I like the overall idea of three things ...

1) CAD/wedging scenario
2) Miller B type scenario (with secondary redevelopment offshore)
3) continuous depiction of a decent system which has mucho support from the other globals, except the ECMWF ... and the 00z runs will be most scrutinized to see if the ECMWF is hiccupping or setting the trend ...

[Chris the Weather Man]

Miller B......... We would like a MILLER A!

[Heady Guy]

I beg to differ. The euro is an ideal model in this range. GFS is suppressed system with the latest run. Euro has be very in line the past few runs. I am still thinking a supressed system. Inland runner is not correct at all in this pattern.