00z ETA and GFS Initializations...

[Stormsfury]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1156 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2004

VALID FEB 21/0000 UTC THRU FEB 23/1200 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

THE OB AT RNK WAS SHORT TO 565 MB.

...SFC...
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE SFC LOW OVER E
CNTRL CA. THE ETA IS ALSO TOO WEAK WITH THE TROFFING OVER
THE DESERT SW.

...PWS...
THE ETA AND GFS WERE A LITTLE DRY OVER CNTRL TN/KY. THEY
LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE NULL OB AT ILN. THE ETA WAS ALSO DRY
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THE GFS IS TOO WET OVER TBW AND
LWX AND TOO DRY OVER MFL...CRP...AND BRO.

...500 MB HTS/VORTS...
THE ETA IS GENERALLY WEAK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPR
TROF...MAINLY OVER THE MID ATL AND SE. THE ETA IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH WITH THE TROFFING OVER THE WRN UPR GRTLKS
REGION...CUTTING OFF A LOW TO THE S OF THIS OVER THE UPR/MID MS
VLY. THE OBS SEEM TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY MORE NLY UPR LOW
THAN THE ETA STAMPS OUT HERE...BUT THE WV IMAGERY SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE ETA LOW LOCATION. ON THE WEST COAST...THE ETA
DOES NOT STAMP OUT A LOW OVER S CNTRL CA WHERE THE OBS AND
WV IMAGERY INDICATE. THE ETA IS ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH WITH
THE RIDGING OVER UIL...BUT IS TOO STRONG WITH THE RIDGING OVER
PANC AND PAKN. THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO STRONG WITH THE RIDGING
OVER PANC...PAKN...AND ABR AND A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE RIDGING
OVER WMJ.

...250 MB WINDS...
THE ETA AND GFS ANALYSES SEEM REASONABLE.