It's Over, To The South

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Anonymous

It's Over, To The South

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 21, 2004 12:46 pm

:(


Could this be the end for the mid-week storm, all to the south DC on southward 1-2 feet up here Philadelphia to Boston, nothing but a flurry. Yes/No.
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Colin
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#2 Postby Colin » Sat Feb 21, 2004 12:52 pm

Yes.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:07 pm

not you Colin, No offense, but your not the person I was looking for to respond to this. I think your wrong.
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#4 Postby Colin » Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:08 pm

Then why'd you post it? :rolleyes:
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#5 Postby Stephanie » Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:10 pm

You're having a knee-jerk reaction to the models and it's still 5 days away. Read what our mets have been saying.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:11 pm

Also read the HPC discussion that I posted about it as they have a very complete anaylisis.
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 21, 2004 1:40 pm

That's a ridiculous question 1evans... the event is still 4-5 days out... how can we decide one way or another for sure? It could be nothing north of RIC, or it could dump on Boston, who knows at this juncture. Maybe by this time Monday we'll have a better idea.
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 21, 2004 2:20 pm

You misinterpreted me completely. I posted this becasue models seem to suggest that the storm goes to the south and we don't get anything. I'm not an expert, I just read the treads and post about it. If you want to argue with me well than...
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#9 Postby Craig286 » Sat Feb 21, 2004 2:32 pm

Im going with nothing north of richmond...

Storms just havnt materialized for us this year, and now DT thinks spring-like conditions are coming soon..
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#10 Postby Stephanie » Sat Feb 21, 2004 4:33 pm

Sorry 1evans, but you've kind of jumped the gun about storms in the past. Hopefully it's not true - we'll just have to wait and see.
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Re: It's Over, To The South

#11 Postby Erica » Sat Feb 21, 2004 4:43 pm

1evans wrote::(


Could this be the end for the mid-week storm, all to the south DC on southward 1-2 feet up here Philadelphia to Boston, nothing but a flurry. Yes/No.


This is so rediculous. The 12z models are still showing a decent event for the Mid Atlantic and possibly even southern New England. Don't waffle with the model runs, they will just drive you crazy.

Colin, I really don't know what your complaining about, the GFS 12z run had up to .75" of liquid at ABE. And (eventhough i don't like to discuss it alot this early), some good isentropic lift, UVM and frontogenesis is being generated all the way up into east central Pennsylvania.

This is far from over, but please, don't post these rediculous comments based on one model, one run. And, the 18z ETA has also trended much further north than any previous run.
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#12 Postby therock1811 » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:00 pm

Gotta agree with erica here...this is by no means the end of it! Still think anyone from BOS to PHI gets something...maybe not 1-2', but certainly you get more than flurries...far from being over...hasn't even begun yet!
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#13 Postby Heady Guy » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:41 pm

It s over from DC and north. Latest GFS in line with last nights euro. OTher models are going with this idea currently.This will be a suppressed system. This is good track for the southern members hoping for a winter event. I expect the euro to show a suppressed system tonight again.
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Re: It's Over, To The South

#14 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:54 pm

Erica wrote:
1evans wrote::(


Could this be the end for the mid-week storm, all to the south DC on southward 1-2 feet up here Philadelphia to Boston, nothing but a flurry. Yes/No.


This is so rediculous. The 12z models are still showing a decent event for the Mid Atlantic and possibly even southern New England. Don't waffle with the model runs, they will just drive you crazy.

Colin, I really don't know what your complaining about, the GFS 12z run had up to .75" of liquid at ABE. And (eventhough i don't like to discuss it alot this early), some good isentropic lift, UVM and frontogenesis is being generated all the way up into east central Pennsylvania.

This is far from over, but please, don't post these rediculous comments based on one model, one run. And, the 18z ETA has also trended much further north than any previous run.



Agreed. ( I think we should get a much clearer picture by Monday) Remember, What Happened in March 2001? It kept trending North............
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#15 Postby Heady Guy » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:59 pm

March 2001 does not happen every storm. I wish it did though. I am trying to look for good things about this storm coming north, but I can't find to many currently.
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#16 Postby Guest » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:06 pm

Heady Guy wrote:March 2001 does not happen every storm. I wish it did though. I am trying to look for good things about this storm coming north, but I can't find to many currently.


Well lets see. There is the well known fact how the GFS handles southern systems (South bias) and as well lets not forget that this isnt Jan or even early Feb anymore either meaning seeing how we are very close to March this suppression BS should be starting to give up the ghost!!

Dont give up yet like Erica has said time and time again. Really need to stop with this model to model forecasting crap that i see a few are doing here!
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#17 Postby therock1811 » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:10 pm

king of weather wrote:Dont give up yet like Erica has said time and time again. Really need to stop with this model to model forecasting crap that i see a few are doing here!
I agree...not over yet...as KOW said in another topic a little bit ago, 18z isn't all that reliable anyways...
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#18 Postby molecules » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:12 pm

therock1811 wrote:
king of weather wrote:Dont give up yet like Erica has said time and time again. Really need to stop with this model to model forecasting crap that i see a few are doing here!
I agree...not over yet...as KOW said in another topic a little bit ago, 18z isn't all that reliable anyways...


AMEN
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#19 Postby Heady Guy » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:12 pm

New Eueo is more suppressed and out to sea. Looks good for NC & possible SVA. DC & north good bye.
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#20 Postby molecules » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:13 pm

Heady Guy wrote:New Eueo is more suppressed and out to sea. Looks good for NC & possible SVA. DC & north good bye.



That is this run........Wait until 48 hours before the event before you say BYE BYE!
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