I lean on the ETA and MM5 when we have major wedge events here in North Carolina, because they tend to do extremely well with soundings and surface temps. Not always consistent on QPF, but usually as we get closer to the event they do well with timing at the very least.
That all being said looked at the 12Z ETA this morning using the Bufkit model soundings. Very ugly picture for Charlotte and surrounding areas. Get this based on the soundings.
Snow starts at 2am Thursday and continues with some sleet/rain mixing in until Friday at 6pm. Looking at 3 techniques fro snow fall accumulation. That being max temp/thickness, NWS obs handbook, and Model algorithms output you get the following totals for CLT. Max temp- 19.5”, Thickness 9.01”, Model output 8.88”. With a grand total of QPF at 1.925” liquid!!!!!
Okay anyway you slice it thats a boat load of snow. The model dose show P-types mixing with sleet and some freezing rain. But the sounding doesn’t have a warm enough nose to really get any major freezing rain.
One thing seems for sure the track of the low is crucial to where the deformation zones sets up and who gets clobbered.
Gotta love forecasting this time of year in the Carolinas.
