Are You Ready To Stick A Fork In It Yet?

[Anonymous]

On February 6th, I posted a thread stating "Winter was over for I-95 from Richmond to BWI".

Most, if not all, disagreed with me, including all the Mets.

Well it's March 8th, and still no major winter event has affected these areas, as predicted

So are you ready to believe?

[JCT777]

I believe that the past 6 weeks have stunk royally. So I guess you win. Congratulations. Only 9 more months until next winter.

[Anonymous]

Well that gives me until early November, then I will release the 2004-2005 Winter Outlook for the MA.

[Lowpressure]

BEF, you appear to have been right, I was one who thought you were foolish making that comment. I may have to eat my shorts. Good call, unless something strange happens.

[Guest]

I have to agree as well BEF. Notta, zip here since then. Good call. This winter 03-04 is going down as one of the biggest let downs for me ever. Biggest will still be 97-98 and 01-02 but this will take the third spot.
Some may ask why????
For one i expected alot more then has been had here in my location and as well all that wasted cold air. And yes this area here is running about 15 - 20 inches behind norms in the snowfall. In a way i would almost take 01-02 winter over this because there werent so many teases and it was more enjoyable outside (Warmer).

I for one have stuck a fork in this winter. No way does this area see any significant snows (6+events)between now and next fall.

I am gonna do some checking because as of right now the last accumulating snow here was back in the first week of Feb which if i am correct could be a record for here. Let you all know my findings when i get them!

And on another note Columbus, OH is even worse off then here where i am at and is on pace i think as well to break a record the the least snow in a winter season. I think they have had like 9 or so inches of snow (If that)the whole winter which thier last accumulating snow was at about the same time mine was as well which could be a added record for this location.

And remember folks this is OH and not the MA or the coastal plain of the NE and alot more snow is supposed to fall here. Other then last winter (02-03) this part of the state has had a snow deficit now every year going back to the winter of 95-96 and in alot of cases a extreme deficit.

[vbhoutex]

Knowing what you went through to come up with your Winter forecast KOW brings me to the question-WHAT DID YOU/ALL OF US MISS THAT LED TO THIS APPARENT BUST FOR A LARGE AREA OF THE NATION?

I have no clue. I did not put out a winter forecast as my winter skills still need a lot of work, but I for the life of me do not know what happened unless and I do suspect this is the biggest issue, there just was almost no phasing between the Northern and Southern jets this winter. That brings up the question of what would have given us a clue that this was going to be the case?

[yoda]

I still argue that winter is not over yet... we still have two more chances here in the MA.... however, BEF, what was your criteria again?

[Anonymous]

Yoda...

I classified a major event as 8+ inches of snow.

Shoot these areas, from Richmond to BWI did not recieve even a inch since February 6th.

When I look at it, I just did not see the timing being right to produce a MECS.

Poor timing and lack of phasing killed this area....but there's always next winter

[Stephanie]

Current status - rain changing to snow in Atlantic City.

[yoda]

Don't be so sure winter is over BEF.....

[Guest]

Knowing what you went through to come up with your Winter forecast KOW brings me to the question-WHAT DID YOU/ALL OF US MISS THAT LED TO THIS APPARENT BUST FOR A LARGE AREA OF THE NATION?

I have no clue. I did not put out a winter forecast as my winter skills still need a lot of work, but I for the life of me do not know what happened unless and I do suspect this is the biggest issue, there just was almost no phasing between the Northern and Southern jets this winter. That brings up the question of what would have given us a clue that this was going to be the case?

In all honesty VB for the most part i did very well on my winter outlook however some places such as my own has busted bigtime in the snowfall dept. Temps, precip i have pretty much hit on but I am gonna do a post in the near future at around the week of 21st because then (Offically) winter will be over and i will go into alot more better detail of all the hits and misses for each region of the country and explain why what went wrong ect.

Thanks for bringing this up!

[Anonymous]

Yoda...you suffer from denial...it's over man!

[Stormsfury]

For the lack of snowfall ... yes, BEF has verified ...

But for the Carolinas ... well, different story .. and it was VERY COLD in the East followed by quite a strong warmup ...

WHY? Well, bottom line ...

Split flow across the U.S. The southern stream robbed the MA/NE of significant moisture while it was very cold ... in which, the month of February ended up being much above normal in precip across the Southland ...

But winter isn't "officially over just yet" ... although time is rapidly dwindling for a "major snowstorm", I just won't quite rule it out just yet ... and it wouldn't surprise me if we "officially" end it with a late season Nor'easter, since we started it with an early one ...

[Guest]

For the lack of snowfall ... yes, BEF has verified ...

But for the Carolinas ... well, different story .. and it was VERY COLD in the East followed by quite a strong warmup ...

WHY? Well, bottom line ...

Split flow across the U.S. The southern stream robbed the MA/NE of significant moisture while it was very cold ... in which, the month of February ended up being much above normal in precip across the Southland ...

But winter isn't "officially over just yet" ... although time is rapidly dwindling for a "major snowstorm", I just won't quite rule it out just yet ... and it wouldn't surprise me if we "officially" end it with a late season Nor'easter, since we started it with an early one ...

Key word there! ((Nor'easter!!!!)) Which more or less means winter is done in these parts as i said above because those dont affect here. Yea it may get cold or stay on the cold side for a bit more this month but as far as any sig snows goes as i said above. Its done! Not happening. Not here in my backyard where i am at anyways! Take that to the bank! Which for me IMO means winter is over.

But i think those on the other side of the apps do have a shot at a nor'easter as SF said before winter is offically out and done with.

[Stormsfury]

For the lack of snowfall ... yes, BEF has verified ...

But for the Carolinas ... well, different story .. and it was VERY COLD in the East followed by quite a strong warmup ...

WHY? Well, bottom line ...

Split flow across the U.S. The southern stream robbed the MA/NE of significant moisture while it was very cold ... in which, the month of February ended up being much above normal in precip across the Southland ...

But winter isn't "officially over just yet" ... although time is rapidly dwindling for a "major snowstorm", I just won't quite rule it out just yet ... and it wouldn't surprise me if we "officially" end it with a late season Nor'easter, since we started it with an early one ...

Key word there! ((Nor'easter!!!!)) Which more or less means winter is done in these parts as i said above because those dont affect here. Yea it may get cold or stay on the cold side for a bit more this month but as far as any sig snows goes as i said above. Its done! Not happening. Not here in my backyard where i am at anyways! Take that to the bank! Which for me IMO means winter is over.

But i think those on the other side of the apps do have a shot at a nor'easter as SF said before winter is offically out and done with.

King, I'm not ruling out one more storm for the OV either...

[Guest]

For the lack of snowfall ... yes, BEF has verified ...

But for the Carolinas ... well, different story .. and it was VERY COLD in the East followed by quite a strong warmup ...

WHY? Well, bottom line ...

Split flow across the U.S. The southern stream robbed the MA/NE of significant moisture while it was very cold ... in which, the month of February ended up being much above normal in precip across the Southland ...

But winter isn't "officially over just yet" ... although time is rapidly dwindling for a "major snowstorm", I just won't quite rule it out just yet ... and it wouldn't surprise me if we "officially" end it with a late season Nor'easter, since we started it with an early one ...

Key word there! ((Nor'easter!!!!)) Which more or less means winter is done in these parts as i said above because those dont affect here. Yea it may get cold or stay on the cold side for a bit more this month but as far as any sig snows goes as i said above. Its done! Not happening. Not here in my backyard where i am at anyways! Take that to the bank! Which for me IMO means winter is over.

But i think those on the other side of the apps do have a shot at a nor'easter as SF said before winter is offically out and done with.

King, I'm not ruling out one more storm for the OV either...

One more??? Havent really had one here yet where i am at this winter! Pretty sad huh especially for this location. Well glad you think so but i have my serious doubts as seen above. This week again is proving so far my point with everything going in all directions around me but NOTTA Here at my house! We will see i suppose but i am sticking with what i said above.

[weatherfan]

I think also that the QBO east pase did it swich until very Late winter.Some were going for the swich in Late janaurey instread it was a slow transion to east to west phase.Which has in part made for the La nina like predomantey strong Jet stream.Then in Januarey we finlly got the cold.But the storm track was very surpress to the south.Another thing some may argure is that the fact we had no real clear singel in many of the Indexs this winter. The NAO was mostey nurturl this winter with some times of Negative periolds.The PNA was likey the strongest singel this year since it was mostey negative.Which in part can explain the lack of much phanseing this winter.And the QBO eastery was another strong singel which faverd the stong PJ this year.ENSO had no real singel.


So in the end we sould it really be surpise about the Normal to below normal snow fall from Philly south.Because two of the strongest singels were against big phaseing events this year.But it does not mean the winter can't be cold.As an example this year cold and below normal snow fall.Just as warm winters does it always mean below normal snow fall.There has been warm winters but with above normal snow fall.It all depends on timing in any giving season.Some seasons like this year timing is bad on alot of storms.other years Timing is perfect.Aka 96 and 2002-2003 winter.This winter imo was still historect in its own ways.Not for the snow.But how cold it was in Januarey.That made this winter just as historecal.But because most people are snow fans and love snow.It will be forgoten when it really sould it be over look.Because the cold we had in January was pretty impressive and still made this winter a historect one in that regard.

[Stormsfury]

The QBO officially switched to west in February...

2.61 February 2004 value ...

<pre>
2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56
2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48
2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38
2004 -4.84 2.61 </pre>

[Guest]

I think also that the QBO east pase did it swich until very Late winter.Some were going for the swich in Late janaurey instread it was a slow transion to east to west phase.Which has in part made for the La nina like predomantey strong Jet stream.Then in Januarey we finlly got the cold.But the storm track was very surpress to the south.Another thing some may argure is that the fact we had no real clear singel in many of the Indexs this winter. The NAO was mostey nurturl this winter with some times of Negative periolds.The PNA was likey the strongest singel this year since it was mostey negative.Which in part can explain the lack of much phanseing this winter.And the QBO eastery was another strong singel which faverd the stong PJ this year.ENSO had no real singel.


So in the end we sould it really be surpise about the Normal to below normal snow fall from Philly south.Because two of the strongest singels were against big phaseing events this year.But it does not mean the winter can't be cold.As an example this year cold and below normal snow fall.Just as warm winters does it always mean below normal snow fall.There has been warm winters but with above normal snow fall.It all depends on timing in any giving season.Some seasons like this year timing is bad on alot of storms.other years Timing is perfect.Aka 96 and 2002-2003 winter.This winter imo was still historect in its own ways.Not for the snow.But how cold it was in Januarey.That made this winter just as historecal.But because most people are snow fans and love snow.It will be forgoten when it really sould it be over look.Because the cold we had in January was pretty impressive and still made this winter a historect one in that regard.

A few good points made here especially with the QBO and i will add as well the enso which back when i did my outlook i took a little of both into consideration which between the both may have played a small role in where i busted at. But either way as i said above i will go more into this when i do my report in the comming weeks.

[Lehigh]

On February 6th, I posted a thread stating "Winter was over for I-95 from Richmond to BWI".

Most, if not all, disagreed with me, including all the Mets.

Well it's March 8th, and still no major winter event has affected these areas, as predicted

So are you ready to believe?

________________________________________________________

I have always believed winter was over, even if we had some snow events.

I also said a late start winter and early spring back in October.