St. Paddy's Day Storm for the East? Perhaps

Steve H. · #1 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 8:34 am

Todays 0Z and 6z GFS are advertising a significant storm in the east late Weds/Thurs/Friday. EC has shown coastal development at that time as well. We shall see. Probably the last shot at a decent event. I-95 cities may well see some snow out of this, but probably near the end of the event. Interior locations and higher level locations of the nothern mid atlantic/NE COULD get significant snows. Let's watch the next few runs. Could get interesting, specially if the GFS trends SLIGHTLY east the next few runs. Beautiful day in Central Florida. Getting ready for the tropical season :wink:

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 9:05 am

Steve H. wrote:Todays 0Z and 6z GFS are advertising a significant storm in the east late Weds/Thurs/Friday. EC has shown coastal development at that time as well. We shall see. Probably the last shot at a decent event. I-95 cities may well see some snow out of this, but probably near the end of the event. Interior locations and higher level locations of the nothern mid atlantic/NE COULD get significant snows. Let's watch the next few runs. Could get interesting, specially if the GFS trends SLIGHTLY east the next few runs. Beautiful day in Central Florida. Getting ready for the tropical season

I have been watching this with intrest myself the last couple of days and like parts of the eastcoast this could bring a nice little snowevent as well for parts of the OV and i only say this now because we are getting into day 4 and 5 which believe it or not is alot better then seeing this on days 5 and 6. Crazy huh. I have another thread that explains this and why. But anyways this system looks to form out in MO and travel ene into KY and then WV and off the mid atlantic coast and up towards the NE. Timming and track will be very important with this system as this is March and for those that want snow it would be best if the system comes thru during the night time hours. Something tells me i am gonna be eating my own words for declaring winter over here ie meaning no more 6+ snowevents. :eek:

Someone had better get the crow out and ready! :eek:

But i do have a couple of more days for something to change! :wink:

So we will see.

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 9:22 am

Oh i wanted to add on a side note that this will NOT become a Carolina supresser because for one its a northern stream system and if anything the final track may be a bit farther to the north instead of the south. Either A. It goes thru Ohio (Bad for me) and on over and off the NJ/NY coast OR B. It goes thru KY and WV or VA off the Delmarva/S.NJ coast and up the coast. Of course there is C and nobody gets squat.

Just thought i would mention this before everyone start's having heart attacks over another Possible Carolina event which is not happening at this point!

#4 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 10:28 am

It ALWAYS rains for St. Patty's Day! It could snow too....

Chris the Weather Man · #5 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 10:40 am

Stephanie wrote:It ALWAYS rains for St. Patty's Day! It could snow too....

1956, 1958 all over agian? 1956, My area recieved 19 inches of snow!

#6 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 10:41 am

I didn't know that Chris! Boy, I sure hope not! :eek:

Chris the Weather Man · #7 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 10:46 am

Stephanie wrote:I didn't know that Chris! Boy, I sure hope not!

I do not think this potential storm will get up to 19 inches of snow..... But Hey, Anything is Possible........ It would be quite funny.................... :lol:

Because, People think Ole Man Winter has left, and is gone... THen He is Back! :lol:

Cheesy_Poofs · #8 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 10:47 am

From HPC:

..CENTRAL AND ERN US...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AND ESPECIALLY
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVES DROPPING THRU THE REGION DAYS 3
TO 6. HPC EARLY PREFERENCE IS THE 06Z GFS. FIRST LOW COMING
THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY DAYS 3 TUE
AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WED WILL SPREAD A COLD RAIN FROM
MO TO MD AND DE WITH A SWATH OF SNOW NWD ALONG ITS TRACK
FROM IA TO PA AND POSSIBLY SRN NEW ENG. SECOND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE GOING NEG TILT POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HVIER RAINS TUES NT AND WED TO THE
CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY SPREADING EWD THRU THE SRN AND
CENTRAL APPLCHNS AND MID ATLC REGION LATE WED AND THURS.
AGAIN A SWATH OF LT TO MDT SNOW ACROSS IN AND OH WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS. THERMAL VALUES ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE ALL SNOW AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO PA/NY/NJ AND NEW ENG WED NT INTO FRI. 06Z GFS QPF
OUTPUT IS VERY HVY ( 1.50 INCHES LIQUID)INDICATING A MAJOR
NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM WITH 00Z GFS SOMEWHAT LESS BUT STILL IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH. ECMWF PCPN OUTPUT IS ABOUT A TENTH OF
THIS AMOUNT AS IT EMPHASIZES THE WARM ADVECTION RAINS FROM
THE FIRST WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON DAY 3 LIMITING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
BOTH WITH THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS QPF OUTPUT.
STILL A RISK OF A MAJOR LATE WINTER SNOWSTORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST...TO BE DETERMINED. LAST COUPLE OF FORECAST
STRONGER ERN CONUS STORMS WERE A BUST.
ROSENSTEIN

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:13 am

Well the 12z ETA run is really starting to go bonkers with this system with a big snow event from IN, OH, PA, N.MD, NJ, WV And much of the i95 corridor from near DC north to Boston!

The -6 line sits just to the south of i70 in Indiana and Ohio and right thru northern MD and on off the South Jersey Coast. This is on the ETA.

The 12z GFS is less impressive with this system BUT more impressive with the second sw dropping in behind it.

Gonna be a very intresting next couple of days to say the least.

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:32 am

I give up.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:36 am

Colin wrote:I give up.

Not so fast Colin.

Now the GGEM and the ECMWF are on board as well. The 12zGFS focuses more on the second sw dropping in behind on days 4 and 5. And as well remember what is seen on the ETA is on Days 3 and 4 which really helps out alot.

Looks like me and you and a few others are in for some Crow for declaring winter is over with no more 6+ events for OUR areas.

Chris the Weather Man · #12 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:41 am

2 storms, are possible, King? 1 Tues, and the other possible Thurs?

#13 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:46 am

Temps are still forecasted to be in the low to mid 50's next week. We'd need a 20 degree drop before we see snow. :-?

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:50 am

The 12z GFS is extremely threatening for interior Southern New England for Thursday. It bombs out a sub-990mb storm east of Cape Cod and hammers RI/CT/MA with heavy precipitation, although temperatures would probably be an issue closer to the coast.

#15 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:51 am

That is going to be one heck of a storm brett!

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:52 am

Stephanie wrote:Temps are still forecasted to be in the low to mid 50's next week. We'd need a 20 degree drop before we see snow. :-?

My guess is that either your looking at TWC or your local outlet in which case i can understand them saying that because the models have just really picked up on there systems last night at 00z and continue to do so more today.

Now watch later today and or tonight your temps get trimmed back Steph after they have all seen the newer models. :wink:

Chris one of the systems will be stronger and the other weaker. ETA says first system is strong while the GFS goes for the second behind it. For a side note the ETA has handled the system comming thru tomorrow alot better then the GFS which showed a huge hit for the OH Valley and the midwest a few days ago.

#17 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 11:54 am

king of weather wrote:
Stephanie wrote:Temps are still forecasted to be in the low to mid 50's next week. We'd need a 20 degree drop before we see snow. :-?

My guess is that either your looking at TWC or your local outlet in which case i can understand them saying that because the models have just really picked up on there systems last night at 00z and continue to do so more today.

Now watch later today and or tonight your temps get trimmed back Steph after they have all seen the newer models.

Chris one of the systems will be stronger and the other weaker. ETA says first system is strong while the GFS goes for the second behind it. For a side note the ETA has handled the system comming thru tomorrow alot better then the GFS which showed a huge hit for the OH Valley and the midwest a few days ago.

You guessed right! LOL!

Actually, tomorrow's temps which were supposed to be in the 50's are already forecasted to be in the 40's!

Colin · #18 Postby **Colin** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 12:20 pm

Look at the huge storm for EASTERN NEW ENGLAND! Spring, PLEASE come!

BritBob · #19 Postby **BritBob** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 2:37 pm

Yes, this could be an interesting development. Next week certainly doesn`t look as mild as models were suggesting last week up here, making it even more interesting.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Mar 13, 2004 8:27 pm

Colin wrote:Spring, PLEASE come!

I agree with you on that one!

Fortunately, the ECMWF is now showing a zonal pattern with above-average heights for the second run in a row on its 10-day 500mb mean. With any luck, this should mean a nice warmup... not necessarily like we had at the beginning of the month, but still pleasant.

00z Sat run:

12z Sat:

St. Paddy's Day Storm for the East? Perhaps

St. Paddy's Day Storm for the East? Perhaps

Re: St. Paddy's Day Storm for the East? Perhaps

12z GFS

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