00z Mon ETA: Major Storm to End Winter 2003-2004?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Mar 14, 2004 10:39 pm

The 00z run of the ETA is coming in and looking very ominous for a large area of the northern Mid Atlantic into New England. It has been wetter and wetter with each run, culminating in this 00z run showing a large area from NE WV/W MD up through New England receiving significant snowfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_054s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_060s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_066s.gif

The end result appears to be the following, based on my interpretation:
*DCA: Mainly rain with perhaps an inch or less beginning and/or end.
*BWI: Mainly rain with perhaps an inch or two beginning/end.
*PHL: Close call with marginal temperatures... could be anything from a rain/wet snow mix to several inches of snow with minimal rain.
*NYC: 6-10" snow.
*BOS: 10-15" snow.

*MRB-HGR: 4-8" snow.
*UNV: 6-10" snow.
*ABE: 5-8" snow.
*ALB: 10-15" snow.

Another thing to note is the tight temperature gradient at 850mb, with some areas receiving heavy precipitation (ALB-BOS) also seeing 850mb temps around -10C, which I assume could be low enough to make ratios a consideration.

At the very least something to keep an eye on... two weeks ago today we were at the beginning of a stretch of mid-spring-like weather in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and now we are faced with the threat of a significant winter storm! This one definitely bears watching, particularly for places like Altoona, State College, Harrisburg, Allentown, NYC, Albany, and all of southern New England.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Mar 14, 2004 11:02 pm

The 00z GFS is coming in holding its ground from the 18z run... meaning generally no big deal for the I-95 cities. Even if these warmer and farther northwest solutions do verify then inland areas could still be looking at a nice event for mid-March. I think it's safe to say that someone in the Northeast should see 6"+ out of this one.

Cheesy_Poofs · #3 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 6:50 am

Another shaft for us Brett.

Is Severe Thunderstorm season EVER going to get here?! :cry:

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 10:10 am

My sister is supposed to get 10 inches up in the susquehana mountains in PA :eek:

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 4:53 pm

My family in several locations in eastern Massachusetts are expecting around 10 inches, as well.

Chris the Weather Man · #6 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Mon Mar 15, 2004 5:05 pm

A couple of isolated spots of 14 inches is possible

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:09 pm

Just talked to my sister. They received 8 inches and are expecting another 2inches :eek:

She also said it was supposed to snow again this week..three more times.

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:13 pm

Rainband wrote:Just talked to my sister. They received 8 inches and are expecting another 2inches She also said it was supposed to snow again this week..three more times.

Yep its looking that way Johnathan. Two of them should be minor but the one looking to come in on Thursday Night/Friday is looking more and more impressive with each new model run!

So much for spring!

#9 Postby **Pburgh** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:30 pm

I bet KOW is snowed in. I talked to one of my customers in Mt. Vernon today and he said they got hit hard!!!! Where are you King??

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:37 pm

Pburgh wrote:I bet KOW is snowed in. I talked to one of my customers in Mt. Vernon today and he said they got hit hard!!!! Where are you King??

I am on the southside of Mt. Vernon. I have been saying we got 5 inches but someone pointed out to me about compacting which i didnt take into consideration. :oops:

. Anyways i checked on some other reports around here and it seems like 6 inches fell which would seem reasonable considering the compact factor.

therock1811 · #11 Postby **therock1811** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 6:45 pm

I got 2.5"...places to the northwest of Cincy got clocked with about 5"...while in Napoleon, IN, there was only .5"...

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Mar 16, 2004 7:34 pm

king of weather wrote:
Rainband wrote:Just talked to my sister. They received 8 inches and are expecting another 2inches She also said it was supposed to snow again this week..three more times.

Yep its looking that way Johnathan. Two of them should be minor but the one looking to come in on Thursday Night/Friday is looking more and more impressive with each new model run!

So much for spring!

I will tell her. She won't be happy.

00z Mon ETA: Major Storm to End Winter 2003-2004?

00z Mon ETA: Major Storm to End Winter 2003-2004?

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