Get Ready For A Rough Winter in Southeast Texas/La.

[southerngale]

Statement from the National Weather Service


COOLER AND WETTER WINTER EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE 2004-2005 UNITED STATES
WINTER OUTLOOK...WHICH CALLS FOR COOLER BUT WETTER CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
WINTER SEASON. THE PREDICTION INCLUDES THE EFFECTS EXPECTED FROM
THE WEAK EL NINO NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
...WHICH COULD INTENSIFY TO A MODERATE EL NINO BY WINTER.

EL NINO TENDS TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF WITH INCREASED
RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WINTER MONTHS. THIS IS DUE TO THE SOUTHERN
DISPLACEMENT OF THE MORE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM...WHICH
BRINGS AN INCREASED NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IS NOT DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN STRONGER COLD FRONTS COMING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THE OUTLOOK USES TOOLS SUCH AS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTER
INTUITION. STARTING THIS SEASON...THE OUTLOOK USES THE NEW CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM...WHICH IS A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL USED TO
COMPLEMENT OTHER FORECASTING METHODS USED FOR THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING CLIMATE FOR OUR LOCAL AREA,
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH/CLIMATE/CLIMATE.HTM

[CaptinCrunch]

It will only be a rough winter if the artic cold fronts push deep down into Central and South Texas in combination with a crossing disturbances in the subtropical jet stream to bring the chance of Ice or Snow. Other wise it will only be a extra cool and rainy winter.

I do think that for the first part of the winter (Dec-Jan) the brunt of the really cold weather will be in the middle part of the Country from North Dakota to North Texas and then start to shift eastward starting in February.

[GalvestonDuck]

Snow? SNOW??? *scratching head* Hmmmm...snow? *raising eyebrow* *wincing as I try to comprehend*

Snow??

Thought I was only supposed to see that when I head north for Christmas.

[Miss Mary]

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas....sing it now Duckie.....I would be scratching my head too if I lived where you do. Stranger things have happened though. A few winters ago I'd turn on TWC and hear Dallas was getting several inches of snowfall. And here in Cincinnati it was a balmy 70 or something crazy. I can recall doing yardwork up until almost Dec. 25th one year! All of us were outside thinking the calendar must be wrong.

I'm such an amatuer interpreting maps like this but it does look more wintery for southern states than for my area - the Ohio Valley. Dang it.....

Mary

[southerngale]

Well, it's not quite winter yet, but the rough part is already verifying. It's looking wet so far and after the cold front that came through late Tuesday/early Wednesday...I'm sitting at 38° right now - the coldest so far this season.

[Portastorm]

Hey SouthernGale ... I hear ya. Am up smoking a turkey and brisket. At 4:30 a.m. Thanksgiving Day, its 36 degrees here in Austin. Brrr!

[southerngale]

Hiya Portastorm! I had a low of 36° as well.

It feels great outside!