TEXAS gets COLD the end of NOVEMBER all the way to the GOM

[CaptinCrunch]

Look at where the -0- line is (850mb Temps)
off the TX coast......WOW


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_324.shtml

[gboudx]

I'd like to see that model run become consistent over the next few days. 13 days out is a long time.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hell, thats hard to say because it's so far out, remember your looking at a 324 hours forecast. It will change over the next few days and even as far out as 120hrs things can change.

I just thought WOW look at the -0- line being all the way to the GOM......Crazy

[CaptinCrunch]

Here the -0- line is right over N-TX and you will notice precip wide spread across the state. This is the start of a cold period for Texas (11-22-04) that looks to last thru the end of the month.

Which goes with my Winter Forecast for November

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_156.shtml

[CaptinCrunch]

INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED
THROUGH OK/NTEX FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT..WITH SECONDARY WAVE AND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT NITE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS
COLD ENUF FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP CENTRAL AND NORTH IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIP GENERATION REMAINS IN PLACE BY THEN. SFC HIGH
IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN..SO SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY HOW COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH BY SUN.

[yoda]

INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED
THROUGH OK/NTEX FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT..WITH SECONDARY WAVE AND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT NITE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPS
COLD ENUF FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP CENTRAL AND NORTH IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIP GENERATION REMAINS IN PLACE BY THEN. SFC HIGH
IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN..SO SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY HOW COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH BY SUN.

Stop taking my snow!!

Anyway, have fun with the wintery precip... I just wish we had some up here now...

[vbhoutex]

WOW!!! It didn't have the 0º there this morning when I looked at the models! It will be interesting to see if it holds and we can always HOPE that the precip hangs around long enough for a flake or two here in SE TX-YEAH RIGHT!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

I was wondering when you would pop in vbhoutex, is that 324hr 850mb model run crazy or what....The NWS Norman, OK is thinking the cold air might make it to NTX by Sunday night.

[ssom04]

atleast someone is getting their snow lol. I think this was the first year Boston has had snow before us in Minnesota well measurable anyway EL NINO SUCKS!!!

well coldshot coming through next week and it could stay over the northern plains for awhile Highs around 25 seems wondeful right now comared to 58 right now Maybe a little system coming through this weekend with really minor snow shower/rain

Then really winging it here 336 hours out calls for snowstorm!!

[Yankeegirl]

OK... well I dont understand all those graphics... Can you explain this to me in english?

(not trying to be rude)

I am ready for some cold!

[vbhoutex]

YG, long story short, when you look at a map that has the 850mb temps shown, the 0º line is the freezing line, basically at the surface or very near. When that line is south of your location you almost always will have freezing temps and if there is precipitation shown in your area at the same time as that temp being freezing then you normally will have winter type preciptation.

[aggiecutter]

when this SW kicks out things could get interesting around North Texas thanksgiving day. Once it passes, the arctic hound should invade Texas all the way to the GOM. The EURO being bullish on the pattern change next week and beyond along with the changes that are currently going on in Asia give me confidence that the warm pattern we've been in the past 2 months is about to do a 180.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[aggiecutter]

The GFS is in its usual all over the place mode once past day 7, but the scenerio in this run is a definate possibility considering there is support from the EURO. The possibilty of winter weather does exist for Northern Texas Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

[TS Zack]

It is definitely looking likely we will see some Very Cold Air for thanksgiving. This weekends Cold for texas will be nothing like the Cold coming next week. All models are picking up on bringing some Artic Air South. I like to look at the GFS & EUROPEAN and the EURO has it too. Just how Cold is yet to be answered until we get closer.

[southerngale]

So we could see freezing temps in Southeast Texas by the end of November? How does precipitation look in that time period?

Yes, I want to grasp.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, the 850 mb height is fairly close to 5000 feet so having the 0C isotherm over you is not a guarantee of freezing temperatures unless you are in my location which is close to the 850mb level. This is especially true if you are located near a body of water.

Steve

[southerngale]

So what does it look like temperature-wise down here, Steve? I don't trust myself to read the maps correctly. lol

I'm ready to light up my fireplace!

[CaptinCrunch]

Thanksgiving Day,

Now if this where to hold up it could be a repeat of 1993.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_192.shtml

[chadtm80]

How about us poor Floridians? LOL

[gboudx]

Thanksgiving Day,

Now if this where to hold up it could be a repeat of 1993.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_192.shtml

I've only been here since 95. Was that the infamous Cowboys/Dolphins sleet game?