Repeat for Southern California/Nevada/Arizona this Weekend

[aveosmth]

What a storm we got here in So Cal this weekend!!! Accumulating snow in Temecula, Murrietta, and Lake Elsinore this weekend....unbelievable...now its time to turn our attention to the possibility of this all happening again next weekend....the models are in pretty good consensus about a cold low dropping down from the Northwest in the Sunday-Monday time frame....this storm does not look nearly as wet as but the cold core looks even colder....it looks like snow down to 2000 ft w/this storm whereas at this time last week, it was looking like snow down to 4000 ft w/the storm that blew through this weekend....of course all the models were off w/that one and the snow level was much lower.....would love to hear everyone's preliminary thoughts on this system....I won't hold anyone to your predictions, as this is an inside slider as well and will be very tricky....we could easily get absolutely nothing but some stiff winds....

[weatherlover427]

Furluvcats (a member on S2K) lives in Temecula ... I bet she saw some snow out her way then.

It would be freaky is we saw the same thing again this coming weekend. To have two similar systems again so close to each other is quite an anomaly. Then again, the weather this year hasn't been that normal anyway so what the heck.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

True that, bnormal weather this year we've had. Aveo, my analysis shows this trough being large at first. It will go further west in the models as the models progress. I believe the trough is going to tighten, and wrap itself up, into a spinning low pressure center. It should slide down, and hit us again, based on jet direction over the trough. It does indeed look colder. Heck its gonna be 25 degrees here tonight in Ontario possible, with frost! Now thats cold for here! Anyway, It looksl ike another repeat, and even some snow in my area. im just near 1,000feet, and still, that level doesn't see snow often. Ill get more analysis as the week goes on, but prepare for a repeat, so it seems.

[aveosmth]

Snow in Ontario during Thanksgiving Weekend would be an absolute nightmare for drivers...I would love to see it though!! The 18Z GFS has the trough movin west as well....also, the ridge of high pressure does not look like it will be as strong as I thought so this trough will be a bit stronger than I had forecast....it looks like the various NWS offices are starting to mention the same things....w/snow levels ranging from 2-4K ft...I'm hoping the cold air will hang around and assist the trough when it gets here w/bringing those snow levels down as well....should be an interesting week.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Well basically the cold air will go away on wedneasday and thursday. The cold air isnt a storm cold air like we had. ITs more of a clear sky, heat escaping colder air. Thats why its going to be i nthe 20's tonight, and 30's in your location. The sky should be clear, allowing heat to escape, with shallow heights as well. The cold air will go away in the next couple days like i said above. However, the next system looks like it will bring a storm cold air, with rain, and snow like before, even some strong thunderstorms again. Its interesting to note it, but if it gets too far west we wont see snow levels how they were last weekend. If it comes from due north, like last one, we will see it, if not lower. All eyes on this storm system.

[aveosmth]

This trough of low pressure forecast for us is looking mighty impressive....the BIG question is how far west will it track...by tomorrow the ETA will help us and hopefully give us a better idea. The 18Z GFS should be coming out now, and hopefully will also give us a better idea....Tornado_Chaser, are your models still trending west?

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Im still getting a push to the west, more than those models are showing actually. Not too much of a trend west, but enough to up pops in the area. I am giving updates to the Ontario Weather Service on ideas of this next system. They are going to name it Alex, and so on after that. They might wanna hire me:), so that's cool

Tornado Chaser

[aveosmth]

The 00Z GFS is trending even further west.....however it has the low taking a sharp easterly turn right about at Santa Barbara and putting it in Las Vegas at 120 hrs out....this run of the GFS is the first to bring moisture all the way down here to SoCal on Friday Night & Saturday as well....the chance of precip is going up w/every run....

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Yeah same with my models. It seems that the direction of the GFS solution is going too unrealistic for the parameters that are driving this system. My analysis is actually showing the low going right into so cali, and almost taking an identical track as the one last weekend did. his one though, however is much colder, and much stronger

Interesting to note, a very strong low pressure center might come after that one, this time from the Gulf of Alaska. Our favorite ones!!! Sometime next week maybe Wednesday Night, into Thursday

[aveosmth]

Yeah, I agree w/you on the GFS solution w/this weekend's storm....that left hook it takes seems somewhat unrealistic...with each model run more and more moisture is also becoming available this weekend...the lower levels of the atmosphere won't be as dry as previously thought, and this ridge coming in seems to be more transitory as well....these are all good signs....I haven't looked at the storm system coming down from the Gulf of Alaska, but if it comes in around Tuesday morning we could have quite an interesting scenario....this low system will be over Utah & Colorado, advecting all the cold air back into our area whilst another cold low comes in...thats a perfect setup for low snow levels....well have to see!!!

[aveosmth]

THE LATEST GFS MODEL BRINGS 700
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO AS LOW AS -14 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THIS COLD SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS LAST WEEKEND'S ONE, WINDS
OVER THE SIERRA AND DESERTS MAY BE AN ISSUE AND OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE,
SNOW LEVELS COULD GET BELOW 2000 FEET

It looks like just may be a repeat of last weekends storm....the latest GFS runs have begun to move this storm further east sooner....it has also limited the moisture severely as well.....if we get a direct hit w/this storm this would be an absolute disaster for Thanksgiving weekend traffic.

[Aslkahuna]

Two things to beware when using the models-first off you don't ever want to fall into the trap of using just one-especially the GFS since that model frequently shows a cold bias with systems digging into the SW US. Secondly, don't forget a good dose of Climo and the well known sound meteorological reasoning when forecasting. While we are at it, the 12Z UKMET has a much deeper and solution than the GFS on the system due in this weekend. The key thing to watch is the upstream system because if it comes in too soon then it will prevent the digging shown by the GFS/UKMET. What I'm actually hoping for are those big juicy southern branch systems riding a gorilla STJ into AZ. Those systems can be fun here-would love to be able to go on a winter storm chase SE of PHX.

Steve

[aveosmth]

I totally agree with you on the cold bias of the GFS....last year it had a system that if verified wouldve easily brought 6 inches of snow to Burbank & Los Angeles...this season has been absolutely unpredictable so far, and I wouldn't doubt that you guys in AZ will have a doozy of a storm(s) this winter.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

All that is true what everyone has said below my post. I do however see this system becoming more and more like last weekends, but a bit colder. I had snow here in Ontario,Ca, at 1,000feet or so, not much, just enough to dust. would really love to see a major snow event here in Southern California. That would prove the climate is starting to change, possibly global warming or whatever you wanna call it.

[aveosmth]

You still see this storm as being colder than last weekend's? Wow!!! How about the dynamics??? From what I can see the vorticity seems to be strong, and that will help if it does track from the N-NE....we are just getting in range for the ETA, so we will see if it will jive w/the GFS.....I was doing my research on the 1949 storm, and it actually snowed in the L.A. area for parts of three days...could you imagine that!!!

Anyway, as Steve said the models only picked up on last weekend's storm the day before, so I guess we can't read too much into that info....

[aveosmth]

Tornado, take a look at the 00Z GFS at 96 hrs. It has reversed the eastward trend and has delayed the arrival of the coldest air in SoCal till Monday....the models don't know how to handle this storm..

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Yeah usually inside sliders like this one are unforecastable until the final day. Last weekends, didnt just develop, it was there the whole time. It was just waiting there as a broad trough. It then tightened up, and moved down tightening as it dug south. it wrapped itself around to create that moster spin and tstorms we had, not to mention mountain, and valley snow. I still see this system coming in this weekend for now. The model run is 1 out of the 5 that showed it on sunday. But my models show sat-mon, so we will see with a blend of monday to maybe sunday. The dymamics look great for another powerful front to hit, and some strong NE winds like last systems, however, all this depends on the location, and track of this low pressure center. More on this, I will display as the week progresses, and Winter Storm Alex "Ontario Weather Service Named It" gets more organized

[azsnowman]

I think this pretty much spells it out! Yes...a COLDER system with as much snow if not MORE than last weekends AND....there's yet ANOTHER one lining up BEHIND this one! This reminds me of when I was a child (some 36 years ago) we had ONE system after ANOTHER, NEVER saw the graas, dirt from November til MAY that one year (1967)

FXUS65 KFGZ 251018 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 315 AM MST THU NOV 25 2004 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. ON FRIDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. BY SATURDAY... A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY WINDS...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. && .DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE STATE ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK DIVQ FORCING BUT COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...THUS EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER REGIONS. BY SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM WILL APPROACH THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE FORMER TAKING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON SAT/SUN. THIS DIFFERENCE WOULD SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE WEST...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN BEST CHANCES IN THE NERN PORTION OF THE STATE. EITHER WAY...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...COLD TEMPS WILL FOLLOW WITH MUCH BELOW READINGS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DB && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

I'm not holding my breath at THIS time as there is TOOOOOO much uncertainty with this next system HOWEVER....if things DO play out, "LOOK OUT!" The major factor with this next system will be the COLD I mean, snow levels down to "3000 FEET?"

AFTER FRIDAYS SYSTEM...THE PREDOMINANTLY STRAIGHT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND CREATING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR AZ. GFS HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 18Z RUN WHICH HAS JUST COME IN WITH A DEEPER LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE PAST THREE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD THEN ALSO BE SLOWER TO EXIT THE STATE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF RECENT SYSTEMS...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS CONSISTENCY WAS FAIRLY CONVINCING. NEVERTHELESS...ALL SOLUTION TEND TO WRAP A TRAJECTORY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION JUST IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT SO WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS A POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION INHIBITOR. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW SOUTH OF THE RIM PER COORDINATION WITH PSR. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS FROM NEAR 7000 FEET TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY MONDAY.


Dennis

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I live in Ontario, and we are just under 1000 feet, and it snowed here last weekend:)