Could this be the mid-month

[aggiecutter]

pattern change many have been talking about for the last couple weeks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

[Anonymous]

pattern change many have been talking about for the last couple weeks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

It's best not to take the GFS very seriously more than about 48 hrs out.......

-Jeb

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, Jeb....

[Wnghs2007]

Shouldnt there be a rule against posting the GFS more than 250 hrs out. LOL

[HURRICANELONNY]

Even the local forecast here in Miami uses part of the GFS in there forecast. If by Wendsday of the week, they call for rain here, it is guaranteed to be a nice weekend. That's how I base the weekend forecast. The opposite of what the local NWS says be midweek. So, that would leave me to believe that the GFS can't be more reliable then 48 hrs.

[verycoolnin]

Shouldnt there be a rule against posting the GFS more than 250 hrs out. LOL

There's no rule but when that does happen the author is always flamed. People tend to catch on.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I honestly believethe GFS works well over 48 hrs out, to even 4 days out. I use it alot in SOuthern California for my forecasts, and it seems to do very well, and always nails winter systems coming in. And by looking at those maps you showed us, thats the Texas Snow shot from a developing El Nino Jet

[CaptinCrunch]

So what do yall think about this???

[Portastorm]

I would say it looks very cold for the southern Plains and Texas next weekend, if it verifies. And that's a big IF.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on though!

[yoda]

Can you say...

OVERDONE?

[wxguy25]

Can you say...

OVERDONE?

Can You say...Typical GFS absurdity?

You think they would have learned by now that YOU DONT get your hopes up based on any run of the GFS past D+5?

But since we're on the subject, I see a POOR pattern for the EUS here.



Note the strong Vortex over NW Canada/YUKON/W AK, and the ridge off the CA coast. That is a STRONG +EPO pattern and indicative of a fast PAC jet. on the h850 prog you will see the development of the Plateau high in response. the gradient between the two is causing the jet to intensify and flooding Canada w/ mild Polar PAC air.

[Anonymous]

I don't take the gfs seriously beyond about 48 to 72 hours.

But it would be nice to see TX get a shot at some snow, even if it means EUS gets an inland runner and rain. It's all about weather patterns and not all about the EUS.
Then again all that Polar Pacific air probably won't do much for TX chances for snow.

-Jeb

[sertorius]

Good thread here!! The GFS is already backing off the massive cold progged for the central plains around the 14th as well as the possible storm progged for here next Thursday-I showed it to my European AP students today for fun (the cold shot is during finals week) and they were excited-I look at the latest runs and it is pushed back 3 days and not nearly as strong-also, the strong precip band with colder temps for next Thursday is now nothing and even warmer-why should I be shocked!! I also don't like seeing Canada being flooded with pacific air-if Canada is wamer that normal, so are we-it is too bad to-areas like Yellowknife in the NWT were running almost 10 degrees below normal for almost 3 weeks-it could all go bye bye. Of course, I could be totally mis reading everything and be making a fool of myself for typing this-have a great night-I'll take my 7 inches I had in Novemeber and be greatfull for it untill the end of December. By the way next weekend 11-12th look to be in the 60's here!!

[aggiecutter]

The day 10 EURO definately shows a change in the pattern.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[aggiecutter]

and here's the day 7 EURO.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[amawea]

Well Aggiecutter, I hope the euro is right. I would like to see some snow here in north Arkansas, ( right on Missouri border), I am sick and tired of the flip flopping GFS.
Ozarkian