UPDATE FOR 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2004

[CaptinCrunch]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED NOV 30 2004

UPDATE FOR 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2004
.
SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE ABOUT 0.8 C ABOVE NORMAL
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO DECEMBER. THIS AMOUNTS TO A VERY WEAK WARM EVENT.

WE USED LAST MONTH'S NDJ SEASONAL FORECAST AS FIRST GUESS AND CONSULTED
THE CFS, VARIOUS FORMS OF OCN, VARIOUS FORMS OF CCA, TREND ADJUSTED ENSO
COMPOSITES AND THE CAS.

FROM THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD PMD WE QUOTE:

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 AND INTO SE ALASKA. THIS WARMTH IS INDICATED
BY MANY TOOLS. IN MINNESOTA AND SURROUNDING AREAS ENSO COMPOSITES AND THE CFS
AGREED ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE EC IS PREDICTED BECAUSE OF EITHER
CONTRADICTIONS AMONG TOOLS OR ONLY A SINGLE TOOL PRODUCING A SIGNAL.

MANY TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS AND AJACENT
AREAS. AN ENSO RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AREA IS SHOWN IN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.

END QUOTE

UPDATE NOV 30:
SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE AT ODDS IN SEVERAL PLACES WITH THE
0.5 MONTH LEAD MONTHLY FORECAST ISSUED NOV 18.
SPECIFICALLY THE WARMTH IN THE WEST SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN A COLD START
TO THE MONTH AND THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN OHIO MAY SOON BECOME
INVALID WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY WE REDUCED THE WARMTH IN THE WEST TO INCLUDE ONLY NEVADA PLUS
PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES. WE REMOVED THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM
OHIO AND SURROUNDING STATES AND EXTENDED THE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SINCE IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR WE ARE IN A PATTERN WE COULD
EXTRAPOLATE FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES ARE SMALL.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO ALASKA. THE COLD IN MINNESOTA MAY VERIFIY IN THE FIRST WEEK

[Wnghs2007]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED NOV 30 2004

UPDATE FOR 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2004
.
SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE ABOUT 0.8 C ABOVE NORMAL
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO DECEMBER. THIS AMOUNTS TO A VERY WEAK WARM EVENT.

WE USED LAST MONTH'S NDJ SEASONAL FORECAST AS FIRST GUESS AND CONSULTED
THE CFS, VARIOUS FORMS OF OCN, VARIOUS FORMS OF CCA, TREND ADJUSTED ENSO
COMPOSITES AND THE CAS.

FROM THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD PMD WE QUOTE:

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 AND INTO SE ALASKA. THIS WARMTH IS INDICATED
BY MANY TOOLS. IN MINNESOTA AND SURROUNDING AREAS ENSO COMPOSITES AND THE CFS
AGREED ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE EC IS PREDICTED BECAUSE OF EITHER
CONTRADICTIONS AMONG TOOLS OR ONLY A SINGLE TOOL PRODUCING A SIGNAL.

MANY TOOLS INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS AND AJACENT
AREAS. AN ENSO RELATED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AREA IS SHOWN IN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA. ELSEWHERE THERE ARE NO RELIABLE INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.

END QUOTE

UPDATE NOV 30:
SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE AT ODDS IN SEVERAL PLACES WITH THE
0.5 MONTH LEAD MONTHLY FORECAST ISSUED NOV 18.
SPECIFICALLY THE WARMTH IN THE WEST SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN A COLD START
TO THE MONTH AND THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN OHIO MAY SOON BECOME
INVALID WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY WE REDUCED THE WARMTH IN THE WEST TO INCLUDE ONLY NEVADA PLUS
PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES. WE REMOVED THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM
OHIO AND SURROUNDING STATES AND EXTENDED THE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SINCE IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR WE ARE IN A PATTERN WE COULD
EXTRAPOLATE FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES ARE SMALL.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO ALASKA. THE COLD IN MINNESOTA MAY VERIFIY IN THE FIRST WEEK

Thanks for the update.

[aggiecutter]

If the west coast ridge pops as forcasted and the southern jet keeps roaring, then the southern plains will be in for a cold wintry period starting around mid-month. The cold air is already building in Canada. As soon as the ridge extends up into Alaska, it'll come on down.

People having been throwing a lot of analogs around. The one this month reminds me of the most is December 2000. That was one to remember in the southern plains. In Texarkana, we had 3 inches of sleet and snow combined on the 18th. Followed by one the worst ice storms on Christmas Day to ever hit this part of the country. I was without power for 8 days. Then on New Years Eve, we had a 6 inch snow. Pics of the ice storm and snow are linked below via the Shreveport Weather Service.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/winter.htm

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the update tells it all. They have no clue.