November Snowcover Figures In...

[donsutherland1]

The November Northern Hemisphere and North American snowcover figures are now in:

North America: 12.7 million square kilometers
Northern Hemisphere: 33.1 million square kilometers

Since such figures were first recorded in 1973-74, there were 18 seasons in which November Northern Hemisphere snowcover came to less than 34 million square kilometers and 17 seasons in which North American snowcover came to less than 13.5 million square kilometers.

In general, cities such as St Louis and Chicago went on to experience above normal snowfall during the season. Farther east, whether or not the NAO averaged negative or positive made a world of difference.

More details later today...

[donsutherland1]

As stated at the beginning of this thread, November's Northern Hemisphere snowcover amounted to 33.1 million square kilometers. Had the figure come to 34 million or more square kilometers, based on the historic experience, the odds that cities such as Philadelphia and New York City would be in line for much above normal seasonal snowfall would have been higher.

As things currently stand, prospects look good in such cities as St. Louis and Chicago:

Select Average Seasonal Snowfall when November Northern Hemisphere Snowcover Came to < 34 Million Square Kilometers:

Boston: 38.9"
Chicago: 44.1"
New York City: 23.0"
Philadelphia: 22.3"
St. Louis: 24.0"
Washington, DC: 15.6"

Select Average Seasonal Snowfall when November North American Snowcover Came to 13.5 Million Square Kilometers or Less:

Boston: 34.2"
Chicago: 42.2"
New York City: 18.2"
Philadelphia: 17.1"
St. Louis: 22.9"
Washington, DC: 12.2"

In situations where the NAO averaged < 0 during the December-March period, snowfall tended to be significantly higher in a number of the cities.

Select Average Seasonal Snowfall when November Northern Hemisphere Snowcover Came to < 34 Million Square Kilometers and the December-March NAO average was < 0:

Boston: 50.9"
Chicago: 55.4"
New York City: 31.9"
Philadelphia: 32.0"
St. Louis: 31.5"
Washington, DC: 22.9"

Select Average Seasonal Snowfall when November North American Snowcover Came to 13.5 Million Square Kilometers or Less and the December-March NAO average was < 0:

Boston: 50.7"
Chicago: 54.2"
New York City: 29.5"
Philadelphia: 30.0"
St. Louis: 32.0"
Washington, DC: 21.6"

Taken a step farther, there were 13 seasons in which November Northern Hemisphere snowcover ranged from 30.0 million to 33.9 million square kilometers and North American snowcover came to 13.5 million square kilometers or less. In those seasons, average seasonal snowfall came out as follows:

Boston: 37.5"
Chicago: 42.9"
New York City: 19.5"
Philadelphia: 18.6"
St. Louis: 24.0"
Washington, DC: 12.9"

Using the above parameters and adding select parameters that are likely this winter, here are some additional examples:

Above Parameters and December-March MEI Average from +0.00 and +0.99:

Boston: 58.9"
Chicago: 53.2"
New York City: 26.9"
Philadelphia: 26.4"
St. Louis: 36.3"
Washington, DC: 18.5"

Above Parameters and December-March QBO Average -6.00 to +6.00:

Boston: 33.4"
Chicago: 41.5"
New York City: 20.5"
Philadelphia: 21.1"
St. Louis: 24.8"
Washington, DC: 11.5"

Above Parameters and December-March PNA Average > 0:

Boston: 43.8"
Chicago: 46.4"
New York City: 24.5"
Philadelphia: 22.9"
St. Louis: 29.1"
Washington, DC: 12.1"

Above Parameters and December-March NAO Average > 0:

Boston: 51.9"
Chicago: 57.4"
New York City: 27.4"
Philadelphia: 25.8"
St. Louis: 34.8"
Washington, DC: 15.9"

Other Possibilities (some of which were nightmare scenarios for snow geese):

Above Parameters and December-March PNA Average < 0:

Boston: 32.0"
Chicago: 39.9"
New York City: 15.5"
Philadelphia: 15.0"
St. Louis: 19.7"
Washington, DC: 13.6"

Above Parameters and December-March NAO Average > 0:

Boston: 28.4"
Chicago: 33.8"
New York City: 14.6"
Philadelphia: 14.1"
St. Louis: 17.3"
Washington, DC: 11.0"

Above Parameters and December-March PDO Average > 0:

Boston: 50.0"
Chicago: 51.6"
New York City: 26.8"
Philadelphia: 23.9"
St. Louis: 29.9"
Washington, DC: 15.0"

Above Parameters and December-March PDO Average < 0: (Very Brutal)

Boston: 22.9"
Chicago: 32.7"
New York City: 11.0"
Philadelphia: 12.5"
St. Louis: 17.2"
Washington, DC: 10.4"

Above Parameters and December-March NAO- and December-March PNA+:

Boston: 71.8"
Chicago: 68.2"
New York City: 37.6"
Philadelphia: 36.8"
St. Louis: 51.2"
Washington, DC: 16.9"

Above Parameters and December-March NAO+ and December-March PNA-:

Boston: 27.0"
Chicago: 32.1"
New York City: 11.8"
Philadelphia: 12.3"
St. Louis: 16.5"
Washington, DC: 12.3"

From the Regional ENSO profile scenarios and the Snowcover ones, the theme seems to be: Mid-Atlantic is on the bubble with regard to snowfall with probably 15"-25" the most likely amount there. Boston, Chicago, St. Louis should do well. NYC and Philly seem to be in line for 20"-30". Note, this is just from the various scenarios based on ENSO data and the snowcover data.

For those who really want hope for a truly blockbuster season, here is the winter with the biggest snowfall for each of the above cities that is in the snowcover pool for which the various scenarios were run:

Boston: 1977-78: 85.1"
Chicago: 1977-78: 82.3"
New York City: 1977-78: 50.7"
Philadelphia: 1977-78: 54.9"
St. Louis: 1977-78: 66.0"
Washington, DC: 1987-88: 25.0"

[Upslope]

Don,

Good stuff as always! I see 1977 rearing it's glorious head once again in your post. Isn't it getting to the amazing point when it comes to the 1977 analog?

My fall has been very similar to that year and many of the global indicies match up fairly well!

Take care!

[Guest]

Both of you need to quit teasing me with the 77/78 analog as that did bring this area almost 90 inches of snow for the season and as well ofcourse the midwest blizzard of 78 which dumpoed 34 inches of snow here when all was said and done with drifts over 10feet.

Gotta admit though that 77/78 is looking very good for a analog across the board. Just have a hard time believing it yet.

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey Don do you have the stat for Detroit, Mi? Great posting as usual...

[Upslope]

New MEI number for November is up to .826! Fairly sharp rise from October.

Similar years showing up as an MEI analog: 1979, 1963,1969, 2002 and... you guessed it... 1977!

[Chris the Weather Man]

1977 Would be amazing!

[Yankeegirl]

Did it happen to snow here in Houston that year?

[donsutherland1]

WEATHERGURU,

Unfortunately, I don't have all the data for Detroit. Some of the NWS snowfall data is missing.