00Z GEM

[PurdueWx80]

is the coldest model run I've seen yet at 10 days out.



The 510 1000-500mb thickness line is pushing down through the Lakes - that could spell a MAJOR and I mean major cold spell with temps bottoming out well below zero across many areas, especially if there is snow on the ground. This also spells out some exciting lake effect snow considering how warm the Lakes are (because of how warm November was). Winter is a'comin!

Does anyone else notice the 1054 mb high over NW Canada? I don't think I've ever seen a model produce such high pressure...WOW!!!

[dvdweatherwizard]

Just for emphasis on how cold this 00Z Dec 8th run of the GGEM really is, here are maps for days 9 and 10 showing in more detail the 1000-500 mb thickness pattern. That's a minimum thickness of 472 in southern Canada on day 9 and 474 on day 10!








I actually saw this model produce a 1060 mb high up in northern Canada once in its extended forecast, and it never panned out. However, just for fun, I will post the corresponding day 9 and 10 forecasts of the GFS too. It's like these models are on different planets, but I wonder if either of them is on OUR planet? It'll be interesting to see which one is closer to the truth 9-10 days from now.

Well, barnacles! This will probably sound stupid because I'm new to this forum (or ANY forum for that matter), but I can't seem to get the GFS maps to post. The website address appears to be too long perhaps? Also, is there any way to post an image from your computer on here rather than having to use the website addresses to post the image, because once the model runs again tomorrow night, won't the corresponding posted image also change?

Anyway, I've just posted the website addresses for the day 9 and 10 GFS instead for comparison.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

[PurdueWx80]

The GFS links you posted are not links to actual images. I'm not sure how you do this on a PC, but on a Mac you just drag the image to the address line and it takes you to the .jpg or .gif link, then you can post it as an image. You are correct in saying that these model images (most of them) will change with each run. The only way I've figured out how to post a single, non-changing image is to save the image to my computer then post it on some personal web space given to me by Purdue.

Regarding the runs, yeah I think the GEM is overdone, but I also don't think that scenario is beyond the realm of possibilities by Christmas. I think I do remember that 1060 high now. To get a high that strong you have to mave MAJORLY cold air sitting around at the surface and also a dynamic upper-level ridge/trough scenario with strong convergence in mid and upper levels.

I checked out the GEM ensemble average from last night at 500 mb and this operational run has the vortex further south than any other member. Still, the interesting thing is that at 10 days out there is excellent agreement on an eastern North American trough and western ridge.

[LaBreeze]

Question? How would this affect the deep south? What sort of "cold" are we talking about for us? Thanks in advance to all responders.

[aggiecutter]

If that were to come to fruition, everyone east of the Rockies would go into the deep freeze. Actually, the 10 day EURO has a similiar solution, but is more reasonable on the intensity of the cold air. It's going to get very cold east of the Rockies Christmas week. How cold remains to be seen.

[sertorius]

I'm not really the one to answer this question as far as how cold for the south, but I have been thinking for about a week now that it was going to get cold in the central plains starting Monday-good thing I'm a teacher and not a met!! Our local mets here are yawning at this-they say that between now and X-mass we will have 2-3 bombs-chunks of cold air that come through (first this Friday) and then last one day then gone. All in all, a boring pattern with 4 cold days and the rest normal or above normal her in Kansas City with no precip-a totally dry December- I'm not sure that they are right, but it sems now that most of the cold air will head East and then south of me. The Western Ridge kind of envelopes this area a bit and keeps the real cold air from hitting this area head on. I'm used to this-it has been this way for the past 10 years!! But Losuiana may be east enough to get the benefits-It seems areas like Georgia and the CArolinas will really benifit. However, this is the musings of a Latin teacher tired of writting finals!!! Have a good day.

[vbhoutex]

Question? How would this affect the deep south? What sort of "cold" are we talking about for us? Thanks in advance to all responders.

Very difficult to determine this far out. If what the models are showing does come to fruition we could see freezing temps all the way to the coast easily and possibly an "extended" run of VERY COLD(for us Southern folk(20's for lows and 30's for highs?) weather in this time frame. The further East from Houston one goes the more intense the cold would appear to be. Again, with this 10 days out it all could change, but we are seeing, despite the waffling GFS, some pretty substantial agreement in the models that indeed a pattern change is coming and it will be a cold one for the last weeks of 2004 at least East of the rockies.

[aggiecutter]

Next Tuesday, could be the first real taste of arctic air, a moderate brand, for the eastern third of Texas. It should be in and out in a couple days. Earlier runs of the GFS had been somewhat warmer than the EURO and Canadian. The 6z run of the GFS is now in line with the EURO and Canadian for the cold early next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

[CaptinCrunch]

The 14th thru the 17th look to be the coldest days before a moderation of temps on the 18th to more seasonable. Based on the 10day MRF 850 mb Plot charts.

Looks to be dry during that time frame until about the 10th day when the Relative Humidity increases and a chance of precip returns to N TX.

[dvdweatherwizard]

The GFS links you posted are not links to actual images. I'm not sure how you do this on a PC, but on a Mac you just drag the image to the address line and it takes you to the .jpg or .gif link, then you can post it as an image. You are correct in saying that these model images (most of them) will change with each run. The only way I've figured out how to post a single, non-changing image is to save the image to my computer then post it on some personal web space given to me by Purdue.

Yeah, that makes perfect sense. Thanks.

[Stormsfury]

The CMC has a tendency to really overdue highs (and low pressure systems) at that range and should be taken w/that bias in mind ...

Also, check the CMC ensembles for any continuity, in which, the op run doesn't match well with the ensembles on Day 10.

SF

[yoda]

The CMC has a tendency to really overdue highs (and low pressure systems) at that range and should be taken w/that bias in mind ...

Also, check the CMC ensembles for any continuity, in which, the op run doesn't match well with the ensembles on Day 10.

SF

Good point. In addition, the GGEM is too extreme with that PV.

[air360]

Im on the Coast of North Carolina. I do not understand to much about the winter weather and the aspects of forecasting it and such as well as i understand tropical...so i am going to need a bit of help i suppose this winter season in understanding what everyone is saying:)
Anyways....my question is...this cold air that we are talking about coming into the "south" in the next 10+ days or so...all refrences so far have been made to Texas...what is..in your opinions....Nc (specifically eastern) looking like over this time period..or even farther out if anyone ventures...I suppose im just wishing we could get some cold weather in here as having temps in upper 70's in Dec is almost depressing.

[sertorius]

It seems the latest runs of the GFS have kept the "trend" of having a cold shot every 3-4 days-it also seems that each one gets progressevely colder with 2 real good shots X-mass week-one seems to be loading up for X-mass eve!! Can't trust the numbers, but the model does seem to be trending toward a colder solution by the end of next week. I think I'm seeing this right-If I am, then Next Monday (19th) and then X-mass eve could be down right cold in the central plains-there is even a hint at some precip. By the way, local mets are now calling for a low in the teens by Monday night-it doesn't last, but it is a start. Have a great night

[Yankeegirl]

Ok, I relly dont understand all the maps and the graphics, so in average people terms... Is Houston going to see any of this cold weather? I am really getting sick of this warm and humid winter! I need to do some Christmas shopping, and I am really not motovated! Please let me know if any of the weather sites, like accuweather.com, are showing any indications of this cold weather.. I did notice that on the weather tonight, Dr. Neil Frank kinda made some mention of this weather and that our weather is about to change....


Thanks!