12z EURO....
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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aggiecutter
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12z EURO....
unleashes brutally cold air into the Northern and Central plains on day 7 with it's eyes set on Texas. I got that from a pay site, so I can't link it and Plymouth hasn't update their site yet. If someone has access to the 12z EURO and can link it, I think everyone would want to see it.
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Portastorm
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Re: 12z EURO....
aggiecutter wrote:unleashes brutally cold air into the Northern and Central plains on day 7 with it's eyes set on Texas. I got that from a pay site, so I can't link it and Plymouth hasn't update their site yet. If someone has access to the 12z EURO and can link it, I think everyone would want to see it.
I saw a reference to that over at the Wright Weather board. Yes indeed, that Day 7 looks pretty scary with the magnitude of cold air and yes it looks poised for the Southern Plains.
As Keith Jackson, legendary ABC sportscaster might say, "whoa Nellie!"
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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cctxhurricanewatcher
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Stormsfury
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12z ECMWF screams POTENTIAL for the Eastern after the day 10 timeframe with that setup, provided that the confluence doesn't crush potential s/w ejecting from the main 500mb low cutting off in the SW states ...
one issue, is the ECMWF's bias to hang back too much energy in the SW, and if and when the 500mb low ejects from the SW, either in pieces or one main push, well ... potential, potential, potential ...
Overrunning events/CAD depictions at the 500mb level aren't very exciting to look at since we're not dealing w/a significant SFC low/500mb low ... but the issue is with overrunning events, particularly prolonged overrunning events (PD II), heights WON'T look at impressive, and in fact, look like they suck rotten eggs. BUT ... it doesn't take a 990 mb or lower storm system to be significant ...
SF
one issue, is the ECMWF's bias to hang back too much energy in the SW, and if and when the 500mb low ejects from the SW, either in pieces or one main push, well ... potential, potential, potential ...
Overrunning events/CAD depictions at the 500mb level aren't very exciting to look at since we're not dealing w/a significant SFC low/500mb low ... but the issue is with overrunning events, particularly prolonged overrunning events (PD II), heights WON'T look at impressive, and in fact, look like they suck rotten eggs. BUT ... it doesn't take a 990 mb or lower storm system to be significant ...
SF
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yoda
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Stormsfury wrote:12z ECMWF screams POTENTIAL for the Eastern after the day 10 timeframe with that setup, provided that the confluence doesn't crush potential s/w ejecting from the main 500mb low cutting off in the SW states ...
one issue, is the ECMWF's bias to hang back too much energy in the SW, and if and when the 500mb low ejects from the SW, either in pieces or one main push, well ... potential, potential, potential ...
Overrunning events/CAD depictions at the 500mb level aren't very exciting to look at since we're not dealing w/a significant SFC low/500mb low ... but the issue is with overrunning events, particularly prolonged overrunning events (PD II), heights WON'T look at impressive, and in fact, look like they suck rotten eggs. BUT ... it doesn't take a 990 mb or lower storm system to be significant ...
SF
Good post SF. The ECMWF seems to portray the potential for some overrunning events...
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PTrackerLA
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Stormsfury
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PTrackerLA wrote:If anyone can provide a link to this model please post. I'm ready for the COLD!
(I've created the shortcuts to map making, you choose what you want to see ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html
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Yankeegirl
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PurdueWx80
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