They're back: GFS fantasy storms!

[sphinx]

Snow lovers should take a look at Saturday's 18 UT GSF run. It shows 3 interesting events in the 1 to 2 week time frame.

The fun begins on December 19th when a coastal brings rain to much of the Northeast; perhaps a little interior snow. The storm of the 19th ushers in much colder air and sets the stage for a storm to form off the Georgia coast on the 21st. This storm skirts the eastern coast before delivering some snow to eastern New England.

This storm is followed by another storm on XMAS eve. This storm jumps to the coast east of Maryland and delivers some snow from New Jersey northward.

Of course if any of the above verifies it's purely chance but I do believe periods with fantasy storms are more active than periods without fantasy storms.

So a white XMAS is more than mathematically possible for the northern MidAtlantic and New England megacities.

[Stormsfury]

So a white XMAS is more than mathematically possible for the northern MidAtlantic and New England megacities.

Statistically speaking, about 50/50 either way ... the details are very funny with the 18z GFS, with suggestions of White Christmas from SE GA northward ....

However, the OVERALL pattern regime is beginning to take on a suggestive look ... unfortunately, we're dealing with at least 10 days away (always 10 days away) ... and the big wildcard is a progged 500mb to cutoff and dig in the SW'ern states ... models diverge whether it's going to retrograde and stall underneath the PNA ridge, thusly forming a rex-block signature, with possible s/w disturbances ejecting eastward along the southern jet, or the cutoff opens up and ejects eastward in one big piece, the latter would cause quite an interesting turn of events ...

Other signals are suggesting the formation/turnaround to a NEG NAO signature as well taking shape. Not all the time, do you need a NEG NAO for a decent east coast storm to produce snow, just good timing. 2002's icestorm and the Christmas storm were good examples, with the NAO index running around +1 ... we had a good PNA setup, with s/w's on the southern stream ejecting eastward with plenty of moisture overrunning cold air wedging down the Eastern side of the Appalachians in the early December storm ... The Christmas storm was remarkable to say the least, with a CSI banding structure (aka the deformation zone setting up on the NW side including Albany with thundersnows and snowfall rates of 5"-6" per HOUR for several hours ...)

SF

[Wnghs2007]

So a white XMAS is more than mathematically possible for the northern MidAtlantic and New England megacities.

Statistically speaking, about 50/50 either way ... the details are very funny with the 18z GFS, with suggestions of White Christmas from SE GA northward ....

However, the OVERALL pattern regime is beginning to take on a suggestive look ... unfortunately, we're dealing with at least 10 days away (always 10 days away) ... and the big wildcard is a progged 500mb to cutoff and dig in the SW'ern states ... models diverge whether it's going to retrograde and stall underneath the PNA ridge, thusly forming a rex-block signature, with possible s/w disturbances ejecting eastward along the southern jet, or the cutoff opens up and ejects eastward in one big piece, the latter would cause quite an interesting turn of events ...

Other signals are suggesting the formation/turnaround to a NEG NAO signature as well taking shape. Not all the time, do you need a NEG NAO for a decent east coast storm to produce snow, just good timing. 2002's icestorm and the Christmas storm were good examples, with the NAO index running around +1 ... we had a good PNA setup, with s/w's on the southern stream ejecting eastward with plenty of moisture overrunning cold air wedging down the Eastern side of the Appalachians in the early December storm ... The Christmas storm was remarkable to say the least, with a CSI banding structure (aka the deformation zone setting up on the NW side including Albany with thundersnows and snowfall rates of 5"-6" per HOUR for several hours ...)

SF

Would the Negative Nao mean that the highs could have more chance to stay in the Northeast and not get pushed off the coast. Upping the Cad threat? LOL, You know me SF I am a CAD lover. And as the Cad Lover i must talk to CAD Boy (You) to see what it looks like.

[WXBUFFJIM]

With cold air damming possibly occurring, I would love that with respect that there's a better chance of frozen precip preferably snow.

[Anonymous]

Cool, so Fla could see a white christmas too????? Its been years since we had one (1989) we're overdue for some decent snow

[HurricaneGirl]

Cool, so Fla could see a white christmas too????? Its been years since we had one (1989) we're overdue for some decent snow

That would be alright with me!

[The Big Dog]

Cool, so Fla could see a white christmas too????? Its been years since we had one (1989) we're overdue for some decent snow

That was a freakish event. We even had reports of flurries in some parts of SOUTH Florida. Once in a lifetime event, maybe two or three, for it to happen on Christmas morning. Wouldn't get my hopes up.

[Stephanie]

Even though the GFS over-hypes things that far out and then loses them, something usually does occur but perhaps not as extreme as it first forecasts. There has been alot of talk as Mike said that the pattern "is a changin'" around this time. It is, afterall, the beginning of winter.