The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

#1 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:03 am

First what is the McFarland Effect? It's where the Northern Jet becomes vertical and punches way up into Northern Canada pulling down very cold artic air as far south the GOM, much like in December of 1989 where below zero temps was recorded as far south as Austin TX, Atlanta GA and Mobil AL.

Over the last few days some of the models show this type of thing happening with the Northern Jet running straight down the Eastern Rockies all the way out into the GOM then recurving back up the East Coast. This is in responce to a cut off LPS backing up or moving to the SW and setting out over the Pacific and the Baja Mexico area causing a REX Block over the Western U.S. This will also aid in the SJS doing some over running of the cold air and bringing the possibility of some wintery precip to the Deep South.

#2 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:13 am

Starting to shape up to be a very interesting end of December. Christmas 04 might be one we talk about in the future. Here in Fredericksburg, we are looking at upper teens for Wed and Thurs morning. Still no snow, but I have a feeling it is a coming.

boca · #3 Postby **boca** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:16 am

Hey Captain Crunch will this pattern effect Florida with colder temps, even S FL?

#4 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:37 am

boca wrote:Hey Captain Crunch will this pattern effect Florida with colder temps, even S FL?

Yes, this could bring a hard freeze to the Panhandle of Florida as well as much colder temps (50's for highs) for S. Florida (Tampa, Daytona).

Just saw this:

Freeze Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
338 AM EST MON DEC 13 2004

.OVERVIEW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM INLAND PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NATURE COAST...AS WELL AS IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLZ051-052-132100-
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTOW...BRANDON...LAKELAND...
TAMPA AND WINTER HAVEN.
338 AM EST MON DEC 13 2004

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES.

ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...AS WELL AS WESTERN
POLK COUNTY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD AND
DAMAGING FREEZE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

#5 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:57 am

The freezing line may get as far south as the northern parts of the Orlando metro area, especially when that big high gets closer - winds will die off at night and radiational cooling will be at a max.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:06 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:The freezing line may get as far south as the northern parts of the Orlando metro area, especially when that big high gets closer - winds will die off at night and radiational cooling will be at a max.

Music to my ears Purdue.. :-)

Is there anything more pathetic then us Floridians crying for cold weather?? lol

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:07 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:The freezing line may get as far south as the northern parts of the Orlando metro area, especially when that big high gets closer - winds will die off at night and radiational cooling will be at a max.

Music to my ears Purdue.. Is there anything more pathetic then us Floridians crying for cold weather?? lol

Just as pathetic is us Texans doing the same!!!hehehehe

#8 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:11 pm

The first big cold spell for the East and S East just started with a big area of very cold air spilling into the Tenn/Ohio Valley and should effect the the Carolina's and Georgia with low's in the teens and high's only reaching the mid to upper 40's. The North East will see low's in the single digits and high's in the mid 30's.

#9 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:27 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:The freezing line may get as far south as the northern parts of the Orlando metro area, especially when that big high gets closer - winds will die off at night and radiational cooling will be at a max.

Music to my ears Purdue.. Is there anything more pathetic then us Floridians crying for cold weather?? lol

Perhaps the only thing more pathetic will be my complaints when I walk outside in a bit to these 10-15 degree wind chills - time to bundle up.

Just for fun, here is a high-resolution version of the RUC model showing colder temps than I mentioned for Wednesday morning. The freezing line would be about as far south as Punta Gorda w/ upper 30's all the way to south FL!

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:30 pm

Will it hang through Christmas??

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:31 pm

The GFS/ECMWF BOTH show POTENTIAL snow event for the Carolinas, with the 12z GFS run today showing possible light snow snowers as FAR SOUTH as ORLANDO on Early Monday Morning, next week ...

The scenario painted by the 12z GFS is eerily similar to the Carolina Crusher in January 2000, where ... you guessed it, the Carolinas got crushed ...

SF

PTrackerLA · #12 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:21 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The GFS/ECMWF BOTH show POTENTIAL snow event for the Carolinas, with the 12z GFS run today showing possible light snow snowers as FAR SOUTH as ORLANDO on Early Monday Morning, next week ...

The scenario painted by the 12z GFS is eerily similar to the Carolina Crusher in January 2000, where ... you guessed it, the Carolinas got crushed ...

SF

Wow! Do these models show any wintry precip further west into Louisiana and Texas?

#13 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:22 pm

There will not be much precip with this surge of cold air, it is to dry and not enough Humidity, how ever next week may be a different story for the South and Great Lakes area.

PTrackerLA · #14 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:27 pm

Just looked back on last year and noticed that the cold spell this week will be colder than anything we experienced last year, and it's not even officially winter yet! If next week will be even colder I wonder if we'll be getting into the teens around here.

#15 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:33 pm

"IF" this wonderful outlook comes true we may very well see high's temps not even reaching 32 degrees for D/FW and mid to upper 30's as far south as Houston.

GFS 00z 240 hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_240.shtml

sertorius · #16 Postby **sertorius** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 2:00 pm

The Central Plains is also gearing up for this cold surge-the NWS out of Topeka and Kansas City are both discussing it (they have to talk about something-the whole month of December has been boring here!!) I also really think we will get some lite snow with this front-usually, when that cold of air comes in, there is at least some flurries or maybe a low will develop along the front?? However, it doesn't last long unfortunately-We are still forcasted to be around 40 (normal) by X-Mass day (maybe it will change) and models do seem to be trending to a more zonal pattern by X-Mass weekend-if I am reading things correctly-At least we have something to discuss!!!

Wnghs2007 · #17 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 2:39 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The scenario painted by the 12z GFS is eerily similar to the Carolina Crusher in January 2000, where ... you guessed it, the Carolinas got crushed ...

SF

I got Icestorms from both those storms in January of that year. You mentioning this made me just fall off my seat. The first storm around the 24th of January produced over 1/2" of ice here and was known as the Y2k Icestorm around here.

Could Georgia get on any of the action if the 12z is correct.

Yankeegirl · #18 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 2:57 pm

So, I know its going to get cold here in Houston.. We are going to get our Christmas tree tonight. But as far as the wintery precip goes, do you think there is a chance for Houston get get in on some if it? I know the odds are against us, but every once in a while the sun shines on a dogs butt....

:lol:

Johnny · #19 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 3:31 pm

I'm not sure about Houston getting any wintry precip. but I won't be the one to break the bad news. :grrr:

lol

I'm hoping for some nice cold temperatures over Christmas weekend. That would be great and a little bit of frozen precipitation would be icing on the cake. I'll tell ya one thing, I won't be holding my breath on this one.

Stormsfury · #20 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 3:59 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The scenario painted by the 12z GFS is eerily similar to the Carolina Crusher in January 2000, where ... you guessed it, the Carolinas got crushed ...

SF

I got Icestorms from both those storms in January of that year. You mentioning this made me just fall off my seat. The first storm around the 24th of January produced over 1/2" of ice here and was known as the Y2k Icestorm around here.

Could Georgia get on any of the action if the 12z is correct.

According to the model run, yes ... but the validity of the 12z run for this weekend/early next week is in serious question, and holds a LOT of scrunity in my mind's eye, right now ... 12z ECMWF just out, and it's NOT supporting that idea at all ...

SF

The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

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