NYC Forecast Discussion- 12/13/04- Winter around the corner

[jetstream]

FOLKS…cold and winter is right around the corner. It WILL be here before you know it…first lets get to whats going on right now…as a clipper, if that’s what you want to call it drops into the northeast, south from Canada. Behind this low, the gates to arctic cold will be opened. Temps are already well below freezing around the great lakes and Midwest. The lake effect machine is on and pumping for NY state, where accumulations are starting to rise. Intense snow squalls are infact making their way over the apps, and have hit PA, and north and west new jersey with on and off snow squalls. Though coastal areas are seeing rain, expect this to change, as temperatures will continue to drop throught this afternoon and evening. By tomorrow, the lows in and around NYC should be in the upper 20’s, with inland areas in the low 20’s. some well inland areas may see temps in the TEENS. This is the coldest airmass of the season so far. And don’t think it will be short lived. On Wednesday, high pressure is going to settle in north of the area, which will make it even COLDER. By Wednesday, morning lows will be around 20 in the city, teens inland, and even colder north west and inland of the city. FOLKS…record setting lows are possible inland, as temps drop into the SINGLE DIGITS.

As Thursday comes along, temps will rise to just about where they are supposed to be…which will still be cold to some because temps have been above average so far this winter. But this warm air will not last more than a day as Friday afternoon a cold front, a weak one at that, will sweep down and drop temps back into the low thirty’s for the weekend. This is where things will begin to get interesting for you snow-lovers out there. Two disturbances ( clippers are a more familiar word for some ) will drop out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday. Current model guidance suggests that one, ore both of these clippers will amplify into a larger scale storm, one that could produce a wintery situation for areas even up to the coastal plain. This is all dependent if one of these storms can re-develop off the coast. One thing the models do show is that the first of the disturbance will be the weaker of the two. Models are trying to underplay the first disturbance, and they give all the energy to the second. The second disturbance then has the ability to really dig into the trough, and gets all the moisture. For those who want snow, patience is the matter here. There will be no main storm this weekend, both will play an equal role. The first disturbance is extremely important, because even if it does not produce snowfall, it will be the deciding factor, the one that pulls the trough to the east, and the one that opens the gates for significantly colder air. This will set the stage for the second disturbance, which if it can strengthen off the coast, will be a big snowmaker. FOLKS, if this first low can let in the cold air, and pull the trough east, there is a VERY GOOD CHANCE that this secondary low could produce marginable snowfalls all the way to the coastal plain, and the northern I-95 Cities. So to summarize the above, watch for that first disturbance, it will be very important. In order to see a possibility for significant snowfall on Sunday/Monday, that first disturbance will need to pass by the area, dig the trough to the east, and tap the cold air. This sets the stage for a possible major winter event with the second disturbance. Stay Tuned folks, I will update tomorrow with the latest information.

JM