Texas Warming UP next Week?

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ETXHAMXYL
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Texas Warming UP next Week?

#1 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Tue Dec 14, 2004 9:48 pm

Noticed where the NWS, Accuweather, and Local Dallas Channels have us warming up to the 60's and warmer into Tuesday of next week. Is the Cold Really coming? AccuWeather says cold yet to me the 50's are not cold...heard that the cold outbreak predicted on many different sites is suppose to be a rerun of Dec '89 now that was cold here right before X-mas. So what is the deal? :oops:
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#2 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 14, 2004 10:37 pm

Keep in mind, the local channels weren't forecasting low 20's for tonight just 2 days ago. I'm not paying much attention to what the local mets for that far out.
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#3 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 14, 2004 10:44 pm

One of the TV mets just last week said it would not freeze the rest of the year in Corpus. Well it will probably bottom out at 29 or 30 at my house tonight. Now he is saying tonight will be our last shot for freezing this year. I expect him and the others to be backtracking in a big timeby Saturday.
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#4 Postby JenyEliza » Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:41 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:One of the TV mets just last week said it would not freeze the rest of the year in Corpus. Well it will probably bottom out at 29 or 30 at my house tonight. Now he is saying tonight will be our last shot for freezing this year. I expect him and the others to be backtracking in a big timeby Saturday.


I have a feeling they're not the only TV mets who'll be in the same position! :lol:
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#5 Postby sertorius » Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:49 pm

I'm in the same boat here in the central plains-nobody is really saying too much about any arctice intrusion for this area-just breif cool downs with warm ups one to two days later. Looking at the models with my very "knowledgeless eye", they seem to keep backing off the severe cold-the severe cold is being pushed back every other day. The Euro does still show a pretty darn cold push of air thru my area next Friday but the GFS has really backed off from what it was saying for the 22-25th-the MRF which had a zonal flow for the 26th-30th now has a real severe cold out break for 27-29th-who knows-Last night several mets were calling for highs in the upper 40's to 50's for this Sunday and next Monday and have now dropped that back to the 30's-the models are having quite the hard time and as a result, you get real variant forcasts. I am betting on the EURO and saying that next week will have a good push of cold air beginning on Wed. and then modifing by X-mas. Who Knows??-but hey, at least we have something to discuss!!! (Not a good as the East Coast though for this weekend-some day, the central and Southern plains are going to get nailed!!)
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#6 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 15, 2004 12:50 am

Look for sneaky cold into NE Texas Sunday into Monday. Current forcasts has highs in the upper 50's for both days here in Texarkana. I doubt if the temps get out of the low 40's each day.

Most of the models are indicating a moderate to strong arctic out break for the Central and Southern plains mid-week. The models have been pretty consistent with this over the past few days. Past that, the GFS Ensembles and Teleconnections, particularly changes going on over in Europe and Asia, suggest this pattern might lock in for atleast a few weeks.
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#7 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 15, 2004 7:22 am

The only warm-up in Texas next week will be if you're able to stand next to a fireplace!!

The "backtracking" by NWS mets has already begun. The snippet below is from this morning's forecast discussion out of Fort Worth. And my kudos to these guys!

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK NOW APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE WERE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING.
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#8 Postby gboudx » Wed Dec 15, 2004 9:02 am

Here's the rest of the discussion that Portastorm posted a snippet of. They mention this airmass early next week is of Northern Siberian origin. Is that a result of cross polar flow?

OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK NOW APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE WERE
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMFW/GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A STOUT
SPLIT-FLOW BLOCK TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST. RESULTANT
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR DRAWING ARCTIC
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...FOLLOWING A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AIRMASS
ORIGINATES IN NORTHERN SIBERIA...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...BUT MUCH OF THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION
APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE
BLOCK DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...
THIS AIRMASS WOULD SPILL MORE DIRECTLY INTO TEXAS. WE WILL OFFER A
CONSERVATIVELY WARM FORECAST ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE COOLED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RW/TRW ON TUESDAY...
AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
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#9 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 15, 2004 9:22 am

That's funny, the local forcast changed this morning in Texarkana to a high of 43 and low of 24 for Monday. Yesterday afternoons' forcast called for a high in the upper 50's and lows in the upper 30's. The air mass to watchout for as far as Texas is concerned is the one that will be arriving mid-week. This weekend-early next week front should be only a glancing blow to mainly East Texas. The middle of the week front should be stronger and last longer.

I think their change in forcast came from the 6z run of the GFS. It has the trough retrograding further west than previous runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
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#10 Postby sertorius » Wed Dec 15, 2004 9:51 am

Aggiecutter:

Great Post-My area mets are diverging on the Sunday/Monday forcast-a local met was calling for highs Sunday possibly not getting out of the 20's-however, the NWS is still progged upper 30's to lower 40's-this will be a unique deal Sunday-models trending this cold air further east (Euro was real bullish but has come down a bit) so KC may be in the mid to upper 30's on Sunday where as Lawrence (30 miles to the west) may be 5-7 degress warmer and Topeka may be 8-10 degress warmer. Makes the job of NWS out of Topeka tough to foecast temps. for Eastern Kansas. Of course like you, just two days ago, all had temps. in the 50's for the Chiefs/Broncos game Sunday in KC-not going to happen. The mid week one is the one for us-it looks to bank more up against the Rockies which gives us a real bonifide cold shot-the NWS in Topeka is still not onto this too much, but the KC area NWS mentioned it last night. The models still not sure how long it will last-the GFS and MRF have trended warmer and the EURO modifies things quickly by X-MAss. But, that is model hugging so who knows-I agree with you on the cold air lasting-If I am reading things correctly, the PNA seems to be trending more towards 0 and that is a key factor for winter weather in my area-at least no more 50's (after Saturday) for my area for a while. Again, we have something to discuss!! Have a great day!!
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