Snow threat for TX still alive?

[Portastorm]

For what it's worth, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi says in his column today that the snow threat for Texas late next week is still alive. The cold is coming. It could be severe cold. It will back further west next week, subjecting the Plains and Midwest to what the Northeast may see this weekend.

I heard someone that his column today is free, so check it out.

I'm a subscriber, ok. Last winter he didn't do very well. But since early November, he's done quite well. I don't want to start a JB Bashfest but for those looking for a good "big picture" on this upcoming pattern, the column is a good read. That's all.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi is not anymore wrong than the NWS and/or our local TV Mets.

They had no forecast for this current cold spell as of last Friday and Bastardi was tooting the horn about it for a week or so.

Joe has been more right than wrong on cold spells in Texas. True sometimes they didn't turn out to be severe, but they were alot cooler than the NWS or TV Mets forecasts.

[CaptinCrunch]

Bastardi is not anymore wrong than the NWS and/or our local TV Mets.

They had no forecast for this current cold spell as of last Friday and Bastardi was tooting the horn about it for a week or so.

Joe has been more right than wrong on cold spells in Texas. True sometimes they didn't turn out to be severe, but they were alot cooler than the NWS or TV Mets forecasts.

Joe has been reading my NTX winter forecast again...

[gboudx]

Bastardi is not anymore wrong than the NWS and/or our local TV Mets.

They had no forecast for this current cold spell as of last Friday and Bastardi was tooting the horn about it for a week or so.

Joe has been more right than wrong on cold spells in Texas. True sometimes they didn't turn out to be severe, but they were alot cooler than the NWS or TV Mets forecasts.

It is free today. He seems to imply that things in Texas wouldn't get interesting until after Christmas. Please let it wait until 12/28.

[southerngale]

What did Bastardi say 8 years ago? That was the last really severe cold/ice situation we had here. Several days of well below freezing temps, almost everyone without electricity and ice everywhere!! It was really bad here.

January 1997 pics taken with my camera and scanned...not the best quality.

[PTrackerLA]

SG, I remember the event so well. They weren't predicting much of an event until the precip actually started falling if I remember correctly. By the evening of the first day we were watching branches fall in the woods by our home, it was a really surreal experience. Also in 1996 I believe we had another freezing rain event but it did not last long and turned into snow flurries by the afternoon. We also got into the mid teens that night. Could situations like this be in store for us as we head into Christmas? I sure hope so!

[southerngale]

We were without power for days, as was practically everyone else. We cooked on the grill a lot and kept our food/drinks cold outside of the refrigerator. I remember my feet hurt a lot because I could never really get/keep them warm, even with multiple layers of socks. They felt frozen all the time. The whole experience was just weird.

[Steve]

Great pictures. I hadn't read his column, but I know he's been touting his analogs (63, 69, etc.) to major winter events. He said that 80% of his winters have featured major/historical storms. He also mentioned the possibility of a false warm up for parts of the country after the next pulse of cold shots is over. He didn't think it was going to hold. He's done okay this winter. Said it would be step down in the east, and then it would tank. We'll see I guess.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

You guys in Beaumont got more of an event out of that than we did here in Houston. But I do remember it.

Fell out of my chair last night watching the weather when Frank Billingsley stepped WAY OUT ON A LIMB(for him)and mentioned the S word for Christmas day!!! Looking like a possibility from what the models continue to show.

[Johnny]

Yep, I saw F. Billingsley mention the word Snow last night. Of course he didn't go in detail about it and just mentioned the possibility of a flake or two. If the models hold in bringing a shot of some flakes and with the severe arctic outbreak then I think we will be hearing more about this from the local mets come Monday or Tuesday next week. Very interesting to say the least.

[Guest]

Yep imho you guys still have a good shot at it. Looks to be a new system that will develop out in the gulf far enough east to ensure you guys stay with a n or ne wind and that system looks to move nne up into the TN Valley and then central apps/Far eastern OV bringing a nice swath of heavier snows with it. See therock's thread for more on that for areas further north.

Suffice to say alot of people from Houston, TX east to New Orleans, to Jacksonville, FL will probably see some kind of snow between now and Christmas.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Those pics are excellent SG. WOW that's amazing. I would have been shocked if anyone had power through the duration of that thing near where you lived.

Jim

[vbhoutex]

Even though it does look like it could be moisture starved there is still a chance of snow for the 23rd-25th depending on how quick the cold does come in and when the expected low does develop in the GOM. Of course that low has to develop pretty far to the West in the GOM to help us here in TX. Indications are that this is possible. Off the top of my head % chance of snow in SE TX is still running around 40% after perusing the models last night.

[Portastorm]

Even though it does look like it could be moisture starved there is still a chance of snow for the 23rd-25th depending on how quick the cold does come in and when the expected low does develop in the GOM. Of course that low has to develop pretty far to the West in the GOM to help us here in TX. Indications are that this is possible. Off the top of my head % chance of snow in SE TX is still running around 40% after perusing the models last night.

Thanks for the update VB!

After what I've seen in the models last night and this morning, I'd certainly agree. At least you folks in SE Tx will have a little more moisture to work with than us further west.

GFS still wants to displace the cold air around Christmas Day while ECMWF holds on to it a little longer. Can't understand how an airmass this deep would be so quickly dislodged so I'm skeptical about the GFS scenario. Then again, it has shown this for 3 or 4 consecutive runs.

Well, at least it will FEEL like Christmas here in south central TX!

[aggiecutter]

The snow threat, and its possible it could be a significant one, has shifted to the NE corner of the state. The latest runs of the model are showing a significant storm coming out the GOM as the cold air invades Northern Texas Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS had this solution on several of its runs last week and is now going back to that solution. That is generally a good indicator of what the final solution will be, especially since its within a 84 hour time frame of model runs. The exact track will probably shift from run to run between now and Wednesday, but anyone east of a Paris-Sulpher Springs-Tyler line stands a pretty decent chance of a significant snow event Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

[Portastorm]

I don't get it. I just don't get it. (he said in his Charlie Brown Christmas voice)

Our NWS guys here in Austin/San Antonio continue with the highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s later this week, while every single run of the GFS I see shows temps (especially low temps) 5-10 degrees colder.

Are these GFS MOS numbers they're sticking to until shorter range guidance comes into play? What gives?

I did notice that several other Texas offices this PM expressed little confidence in their forecasts beyond Wed. due to the pattern and many called it "challenging."

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't get it. I just don't get it. (he said in his Charlie Brown Christmas voice)

Our NWS guys here in Austin/San Antonio continue with the highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s later this week, while every single run of the GFS I see shows temps (especially low temps) 5-10 degrees colder.

Are these GFS MOS numbers they're sticking to until shorter range guidance comes into play? What gives?

I did notice that several other Texas offices this PM expressed little confidence in their forecasts beyond Wed. due to the pattern and many called it "challenging."

Not only that Portastorm, they are bitting at the GFS when it's suggest we are going to have a quick warmup starting on Saturday. Sorry, that just doesn't happen with these Arctic Outbreaks down here. I'll be willing to bet that we will remain much below normal till at least Jan 1, if not later. It will be fun watching them backtrack ,again ,on their high temps for Thursday thru Sunday.

[Portastorm]

Let the backtracking begin. Our forecasted lows for Thursday night/Friday morning have dropped from 28 (Sunday PM forecast) to 22 (Monday AM forecast). Will be interesting to see what happens with that!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

After reading some of the AFD this morning, most of the Texas NWS still don't get Arctic outbreaks in Texas. They are still calling for a quick, snap of the fingers warmup begining on Christmas day. I wish one of the old school forecasters could hold a net meeting seminar with these guys this week to explain that it just does not happen that quickly with these air masses down here

[vbhoutex]

After reading some of the AFD this morning, most of the Texas NWS still don't get Arctic outbreaks in Texas. They are still calling for a quick, snap of the fingers warmup begining on Christmas day. I wish one of the old school forecasters could hold a net meeting seminar with these guys this week to explain that it just does not happen that quickly with these air masses down here

It can happen that quickly down here, but it usually doesn't. I do not see it happening with this one. In fact looking at the extended MOS graphs shows a distinct possiblility of this cold snap and/or some snowy/winter precip. events lasting into the first week of January. I'm not wichcasting here, just saying what I have seen in the models(have to admit I have not looked at all of them).