SNOW not going to Happen for NC

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SNOW not going to Happen for NC

#1 Postby storms NC » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:15 pm

As much as I would like it to it is not. Here is what NWS has to say for us.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO
THE NE FRI...A WEAK SFC LOW COULD BRING SHRA TO MAINLY COASTAL
WATERS AND ISOLD TO COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LVL LOW SLIDING SE FROM CANADA LATE
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW COMBINING WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY...BUT AS CAA BEHIND THE LOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION COULD
SEE THE REGIONS FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/AND DGEX
MODELS ALL DEVELOP A LOW NEAR THE REGION SUN NT/MON WITH ALL SHOWING
TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME MIX
PRECIP ALONG THE OUTER BANKS GIVEN THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATIONS WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THINK THE GFS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING
THE MOISTURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO AROUND 30%. FAR SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE MAINLY A FLURRY OR TWO...BUT WILL NOT
TRY AND OVER ANALYZE THE PERIOD THIS FAR OUT. THE GENERAL TREND IN
ALL THE MODELS INDICATED FREEZING PRECIP BY MON. THE EXTENDED GFS
MOS IS KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY MILD AROUND THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE
FACT THAT CLIMO IS BLENDED INTO THE GUIDANCE...FEEL IT IS TOO WARM.
GFS MOS SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 40 MON AND NEAR 50 TUE! BASED ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEEL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AND TOOK TEMPS DOWN A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR MON/MON NT/TUE. AFTERWARDS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WED NT/THU. THIS
EVENT APPEARS TO BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
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#2 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:19 pm

The mountains from SC north will likely see some nasty snow squalls and powerful winds (Sunday and/or Monday) if the low winds up as forecast.
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#3 Postby Skywatch_NC » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:19 pm

That's not to say that nothing here in central NC (specifically Triangle area) may develop late this weekend. Maybe at least some flurries.

Eric
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#4 Postby petunia » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:19 pm

Was so looking forward to the snow showers. Oh well. Still a lot of time.
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#5 Postby QCWx » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:25 pm

It never really was that likely for the coast. It's going to be hard to get the snow showers that will come down out of the mountains to the coast.
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#6 Postby Skywatch_NC » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:25 pm

petunia wrote:Was so looking forward to the snow showers. Oh well. Still a lot of time.


Better than nothing for a start according to the NWS:

Sunday night:

Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s.

Monday:

Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s.
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#7 Postby QCWx » Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:29 pm

The coast's hopes are dependant on where the low offshore sets up...if the GFS is right, they will see some snow showers. If the EC is right, well they will see nothing.
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