Birmingham, AL Afternoon Forecast discussion

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE...IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND AROUND 20 IN VALLEYS AND LOW
TERRAIN. BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM UP CLOSER TO CLIMO AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. OVER THE
WEEKEND...THIS IS WHEN THINGS GET QUITE INTERESTING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING AN ARCTIC/POLAR AIRMASS TO THE AREA. LATEST MODELS (GFS,
ETA, AND ECMWF) ARE STARTING TO AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE ON THE
DRY SIDE...IF THE FRONT IS AS STRONG AS FORECAST...SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME SNOW WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AND TAPER OFF FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS TO THE NORTH WITH
MAYBE A TRACE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH NOT UNHEARD OF...THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IS A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AT
THIS TIME...MODEL CONSISTENCY...RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS...GIVES US ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE IT INTO THE
FORECAST. DON'T BUY YOUR BREAD AND MILK YET...WE ARE STILL PRETTY FAR
OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS TO 30
PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AND 20 FOR THE REST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND
THE TEENS . DECIDED TO TREND CLOSER TO MOS BUT WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...IN LIGHT OF MOS OVERDOING THE MOST RECENT
COLD OUTBREAK. LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY INTERESTING. WILL DEFINITELY BE LOOKING
FORWARD TO THE NEXT FEW EXTENDED MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY. THIS IS JUST A TEASE SINCE THIS WILL STILL OCCUR AFTER
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ENDS.

THANKS TO JAN...AND SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COORDINATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GADSDEN 20 52 30 49 32 / 00 00 00 10
ANNISTON 26 52 30 50 33 / 00 00 00 10
BIRMINGHAM 25 52 33 51 33 / 00 00 00 10
TUSCALOOSA 25 53 33 52 33 / 00 00 00 10
CALERA 25 52 33 51 33 / 00 00 00 10
AUBURN 26 54 33 53 34 / 00 00 00 10
MONTGOMERY 26 56 32 57 35 / 00 00 00 10
TROY 25 55 32 56 34 / 00 00 00 10