30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2005

[CaptinCrunch]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THR DEC 16 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2005
.
SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC ARE CURRENTLY MORE THAN 1 DEGREE C ABOVE
NORMAL FROM ABOUT 160E TO 150W LONGITUDE AND CLOSE TO 1 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL
FROM 150W TO JUST OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SST ANOMALIES HAVE REMAINED
QUITE STEADY IN THE RECENT MONTH... WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE WINDS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL SST PREDICTION METHODS INDICATE THAT
SST ANOMALIES IN THE ENSO SENSITIVE REGION WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH JANUARY
2005... WITH NINO 3.4 SSTS (BETWEEN 5N AND 5 W AND 120W TO 170W) AVERAGING
AROUND +.7 C FOR THE MONTH. SST ANOMALIES OF THIS MAGNITUDE INDICATE WEAK EL
NINO CONDITIONS... AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS INCLUDING LARGE SCALE WINDS AND
CONVECTION IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SUPPORT THIS CLASSIFICATION. THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND THE WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE SSTS IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BASIN SO FAR THIS SEASON INDICATE THIS EL NINO WILL HAVE A
WEAK AND UNRELIABLE INFLUENCE ON THE U.S. CLIMATE. THE U.S. RESPONSE TO EL
NINO PEAKS IN LATE WINTER... AND IN WEAKER EVENTS SOMETIMES FAILS TO MAKE A
NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON JANUARYS CLIMATE. THE CFS MODEL DEVELOPS AN WARM ENSO-
LIKE PATTERN ONLY IN FEBRUARY AND BEYOND... SO THIS MONTHS OUTLOOK SHOWS ONLY
HINTS OF EL NINO INFLUENCE. THE CFS SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
INCREASING THE ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. USUALLY
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN MODERATE AND STRONG WARM EVENTS. MOST STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL TOOLS INDICATE THAT THE ENSO INFLUENCES THIS JANUARY ARE LIKELY TO BE
SMALL... BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT RECENT WARMING TRENDS. LOCAL SSTS
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... AND THE MONTH
SHOULD START OUT WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW PACK IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
TREND-RELATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...
ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN MUCH OF THE
WEST DUE TO STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE IRI MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA BY
THE CFS FORECAST... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH PAST WARM ENSO EVENTS... AS ARE THE
ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE CFS... CCA AND
SMLR. ENSO RELATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ARE NOT
RELIABLE IN JANUARY... ESPECIALLY FOR WEAK EL NINOS. THE CFS INDICATES BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SMLR.

[misty]

Captin,
Where can I find these models everyone is always posting. Has there been some significant change today because this morning it went from snow on christmas to a warmup Christmas week. Are the models changing. That is what is being forecasted on weather channel, accuweather ect...I know you said not to listen to them that far out so I thought I would ask you.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here are some of the sites where you can get good models.

http://weather.unisys.com/mos/index.html

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Trasnlation in simple terms" We're clueless!

[misty]

Thanks for the info!!!!!