DT....Great Christmas Storm Disc.

[Wnghs2007]

folks

AFTER THE LOW goes up the front and give Buckeye freaky wx and that upslope a good snow -- DEC 22-23 -- the front races east.

1st

OP GFS way too slow with the front...aagin. STILL it is faster than wed or Thurs and IT does have the front thru the east coast by dec 24

BUT new s Models shows NO s/w enegy in the sw states and west TX instead it has HOWLING SW winds from TX to VA......

GFS sucks crap on toast with this set up... MODEL BIAS cannot see STJ
PROOF? here

the sfc map.... front is off the coast right?


BUT look at the JET and 500 this front should be well on the coast of east ga EASTERN SC Maybe close to hatteras . Look how the op GFS gets this silly solution

168 hrs... the trough is extreme and over done but even if you are stupid enoigh to buy this.... those sw winds over the east coast SHOULD stall the front... of course it does not ...

SO the GFS says HOWLING SW winds aloft BIG se ridge.... s equals FAST FRONT and NO overrunning??!?!?!?

IT CANT BE BOTH


300 MB JET


12z day 6 ggem SAYS trouble FOR DEEP SOUTH...

so does 12z ECMWF. The s/w in the deep south may be overdone but look how completely different the 500 pattern is.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_...PN_144_0000.htm

FOLKS if the 500 look like this there is going to be a significant snow ice event in the deep south xmas weekend . The surface Map shows the massive HIGH NORTHER IA

12z GFS has it over SOUTHERN ARK. JB can HYPE the cold for FL all he wants to but if the other data is right it will never happens

lastly 12z GFS ensemble show 2 BIG waves on the front along the se coast a Hatteras to Boston Low DEC 25 AND another dec 28-29

TAKE THAT OP GFS.

[GAStorm]

I'm glad DT is still on board for the event next week. I don't see how the south can miss a snowfall chance with all that arctic air around!

[CaptinCrunch]

1.) GFS is to fast, I still think the front will arrive late on the 22nd (N.TX) not the 21st as forecasted.

2.) The low in the GOM will be futher North, tracking almost right over Houston or just to the South.

3.) GFS is a little to far to the East with it's runs

4.) Polor Express will be colder than first thought.

This will be a True "McFarland Effect" system, the GFS CAN NOT handle these types of events, much like in 1989 when it was off by 10 to 15 degrees.

[storms NC]

is to be rain for here as all ways
Don't think I'll see a dec1989 snow storm again.

[Johnny]

The low in the GOM will be futher North, tracking almost right over Houston or just to the South.

CaptainCrunch....and why do you say this?

[CaptinCrunch]

Models show a low forming off the TX Coast, however this is do the models bringing in the polor front about 12 to 16 earlier than I beleive it will, if the front is later to come thru then the upper low will be futher north do to the lack of polor push.

The low is expected to ride the edge of the front to the East, we need the front to be slower than what is being forecasted so that the low has time to develope and move inland and catch the front, this will help in wrapping warm gulf moisture around and up over the colder air to produce some winter precip for central and south TX.

Friday 24th 12pm


Saturday 25th 12am

[PurdueWx80]

This will be a True "McFarland Effect" system, the GFS CAN NOT handle these types of events, much like in 1989 when it was off by 10 to 15 degrees.

I'm not sure how the GFS (not called that then) predicted the '89 event(s), but the model has changed drastically in the last 15 years - so much so that it wouldn't even be the "same" model now.