The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Extended...the positively tilted longwave trough advances across the plains and into the eastern states through Christmas day. A surface low meanwhile moves from the western Gulf on Christmas evening night...across the Gulf and into the western Atlantic. 1000-850 mb and 1000-700 mb thicknesses drop below critical values Thursday night...and remain below critical values through much of Sunday. The Canadian GEM and GFS are in excellent agreement on the placement and intensity of the cold air...but are not in agreement on the placement and development of the surface low moving across the Gulf. There is plenty of confidence that it will be rather cold Christmas evening and Christmas day to be sure...and despite the model
disagreement...think that the pattern certainly supports a surface low moving across the Gulf...although the precise trajectory of this feature is still somewhat amorphous. Strictly based on climatology...the return period for snow in our area is about every four years...thus the conditional probability of snow on Christmas day is about one third of one percent. Considering all of this and after much discussion...will go with wording introducing the possibility of snow Friday and Friday night. Temperatures moderate somewhat by Monday...but remain below seasonable levels.
We get our 76 degrees and showers 
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