Model Update

[IndianaWxOnline]

Well I thought this might be helpful, but here is a Model run down of what all of them are saying:

MM5: Appears to be having some feedback problems, but all of Ohio except for Northwestern and far Western Ohio stay in the warm-sector 95% of the storm, so needless to say, MM5 is warmer and farther northwest. It is also weaker with the low, which is surprising due to it having such a far northwest track, and precipitation is not nearly as heavy. Max per MM5 would be 8 inches of snowfall. Even here in Eastern Indiana, I could see a period of freezing rain per this model.

ETA: Obviously as most of us already know, it is a much farther southeast track, less amplified and weaker with the low. Heaviest snowfall in Southeastern Indiana, Western and Central Ohio with a max of around 15 inches for someone.

Coamps: Through 72 hours, is a split between the ETA and GFS but has somewhat lighter precipitation amounts. There is a sharp cut-off in Indiana, but the heaviest would fall in SE Indiana and into the Western half of Ohio.

GFS: More amplified, stronger and northwest track. Wetter, max close to 20 inches. Heaviest snow over Western Ohio, Eastern, Central and Southern Indiana and into southeast Illinois.

NGM: Not really in range yet, and I hate that model with a passion, so I didn’t even look at it.

UKMET: Kind of hard to tell, but based on the 72 hour position and 96 hour position, it would appear the track would be through Central or slightly East of Central Ohio.

NOGAPS: Similar to GFS, maybe a tad farther east and a tad warmer, but based on NOGAPS, the heaviest snow would be in the southeastern 2/3’s of Indiana and Northwestern half of Ohio. Basically anyone East of Columbus would have little shot at accumulating snowfall. Same thing in Indiana, anyone northwest of Indy has little shot.

CMC: Combo of ETA/GFS, but heaviest snowfall would be from South Central Indiana into East Central Indiana into Central Ohio, with max close to a foot.

JMA: Definitely a GFS camp model, with some accumulating snow even at Chicago, but the heavy heavy heavy snow falling across most of Indiana and into the southeastern half of Michigan and the Western third of Ohio. A bullseye of 15 inches exists in E. Indiana and W. Ohio. Some accumulating snow possible in Central Ohio, but after some good rain and a period of fx. rain



Camps:
1. Eta’s camp: Coamps, Eta,

2. Gfs’s camp: GFS, MM5, Nogaps, JMA

3. Crappy models: NGM

4. Their own camp: Ukmet, CMC