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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
259 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2004 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2004
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...
AFTER LOOKING AT THE COMPLETE 12Z/20 GUIDANCE...DECIDED THAT
06Z/20 OPERATIONAL GFS OFFERED THE MOST APPROPRIATE COMPROMISE FOR
THE TWO MOST CONTENTIOUS AREAS OF THE NATION THIS PD...THE GULF
AND SOUTHEAST CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...AND THE NORTHWEST DAY 7.
ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE 12Z/20 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
06Z/20 AND 12Z/20 OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...AND THE 00Z/20
OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUPPORTED A SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC SNOW EVENT
FROM ERN TX TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AND MID ATL COAST. OTHER
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z/20 DGEX...ARE OFFSHORE WITH THE PCPN.
WITH TWO 12Z/20 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO WOUND UP THAT THEY PRODUCE
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE E...AND CONSIDERING THE HIGH IMPACT A MAJOR
WINTER EVENT WOULD HAVE ON THE DEEP SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND
DAY...BELIEVE THAT ERRING ON THE SIDE OF A MORE WRN TRACK OF THIS
STORM IS MOST PRUDENT. 06Z/20 OPERATIONAL GFS GOES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT DOES NOT
OFFER THE ALL-OUT WHOPPER OF STORM THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...HENCE...IT WON OUR CONFIDENCE.
REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...
...GULF STATES...
POTENTIAL EXISTS DAY 4 FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS ERN
TX...WRN LA..AND NRN MS AND AL. A THIN SLIVER OF ICE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW AREA...WITH A COLD RAIN
ELSEWHERE.
...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATL...
POTENTIAL EXISTS DAY 5...CHRISTMAS DAY...FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST DAY
6.
