Central Texas

[Kelarie]

Just a FYI...

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 700 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
... MUCH COLDER WEATHER AHEAD..FREEZING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT... NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH AND WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN A PROLONG PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES BRING SURGES OF COLDER AIR ACROSS TEXAS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BOUT OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE 20S. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... PARTICULARLY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND CHILL INDICES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE... REMEMBER THAT SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHES WILL KEEP YOU WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS THROUGH THE HEAD.

MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. MAKE SURE THEIR FURNACES ARE WORKING AND HEATING THE HOUSE PROPERLY.

WRAP PIPES WITH INSULATION AND SEAL WINDOWS TO AVOID LOSS OF HEAT FROM YOUR HOME. KEEP A SLOW STEADY STREAM OF WATER RUNNING FROM INDOOR FAUCETS... AND OPEN CUPBOARD DOORS TO ALLOW WARM AIR TO CIRCULATE AROUND INSIDE PIPES.

BELOW ARE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDD) AVERAGES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

WED LOW 43 WED HIGH 55 HDD 16

THU LOW 25 THU HIGH 40 HDD 32

FRI LOW 24 FRI HIGH 40 HDD 32

SAT LOW 22 SAT HIGH 50 HDD 29

SUN LOW 34 SUN HIGH 60 HDD 18

[Guest]

Cold stuff!

Welcome to the Forum!

[Portastorm]

Here, here ... welcome!

That makes two of us Austinites (I think!).

[Kelarie]

Thank you for the welcome. Feel like I have found a home, since I am a total weather nut.

I think we are the only two Austinites here, haven't seen anyone else. Do you think the 'casters here in Austin are on the mark or way off?

[Portastorm]

Thank you for the welcome. Feel like I have found a home, since I am a total weather nut.

I think we are the only two Austinites here, haven't seen anyone else. Do you think the 'casters here in Austin are on the mark or way off?

Kel, I think the freezing rain forecast for Thurs night/Fri AM is totally whacked!!! See my other post on this. I also just talked to two private industry mets here in Austin who are equally baffled by that call.

I'm doubtful we will see much if any precip but the cold is real. Air temps in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. Wed PM through Friday is going to feel bitterly cold here given the 70s we experienced yesterday and will do so today.

[Kelarie]

Yet another.... they really dont have a clue....

...ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 934 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
... MUCH COLDER WEATHER AHEAD WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A COLD RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING ADDITIONAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS TEXAS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SMATTERING OF SNOW FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND LA GRANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

WIND CHILL INDICES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE... REMEMBER THAT SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL KEEP YOU WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS THROUGH THE HEAD.

MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. MAKE SURE THEIR FURNACES ARE WORKING AND HEATING THE HOUSE PROPERLY.

WRAP PIPES WITH INSULATION AND SEAL WINDOWS TO AVOID LOSS OF HEAT FROM YOUR HOME. KEEP A SLOW STEADY STREAM OF WATER RUNNING FROM INDOOR FAUCETS... AND OPEN CUPBOARD DOORS TO ALLOW WARM AIR TO CIRCULATE AROUND INSIDE PIPES.

PETS ARE ALSO SUSPECT TO THE EXTREME COLD. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE... MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE WARM DRY SHELTER... AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN WATER.

[Portastorm]

Yet another.... they really dont have a clue....

...ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 934 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
... MUCH COLDER WEATHER AHEAD WITH SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A COLD RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING ADDITIONAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS TEXAS. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SMATTERING OF SNOW FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND LA GRANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

WIND CHILL INDICES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE... REMEMBER THAT SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL KEEP YOU WARMER THAN A SINGLE HEAVY COAT. A HAT IS ALSO IMPORTANT AS 20 PERCENT OF BODY HEAT LOSS IS THROUGH THE HEAD.

MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY. MAKE SURE THEIR FURNACES ARE WORKING AND HEATING THE HOUSE PROPERLY.

WRAP PIPES WITH INSULATION AND SEAL WINDOWS TO AVOID LOSS OF HEAT FROM YOUR HOME. KEEP A SLOW STEADY STREAM OF WATER RUNNING FROM INDOOR FAUCETS... AND OPEN CUPBOARD DOORS TO ALLOW WARM AIR TO CIRCULATE AROUND INSIDE PIPES.

PETS ARE ALSO SUSPECT TO THE EXTREME COLD. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE... MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS HAVE WARM DRY SHELTER... AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND FRESH UNFROZEN WATER.

Well at least it appears they're moving in a more plausible direction in terms of precip type. The biggest question will be just how much moisture the atmosphere has to work with. Something we all need to watch.

[Kelarie]

Interesting bit from Concho Valley NWS forecast. Wonder how, and if it could affect us....

AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO TO START THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY... SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER... LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODEL IS CLOSING AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
AND PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE CONSIDERING THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD INCLUDE A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CHRISTMAS DAY.

[Portastorm]

Interesting bit from Concho Valley NWS forecast. Wonder how, and if it could affect us....

AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO TO START THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY... SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER... LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODEL IS CLOSING AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY
AND PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE CONSIDERING THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD INCLUDE A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CHRISTMAS DAY.

I believe they're basing this on one solitary run of the GFS (12z today). That cold-core low at the base of the trough rotates through Texas on Saturday. That scenario is the first time I've seen it and I wouldn't get too excited about it just yet. Let's see what future runs and common sense weather dictates.

[Kelarie]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
709 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221815-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-709 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER AHEAD WITH SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL DRIVE A
STRONG SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BUT A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA AS CONTINUED SURGES OF
COLD AIR MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE.

WIND CHILL INDICES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

[Kelarie]

I believe they're basing this on one solitary run of the GFS (12z today). That cold-core low at the base of the trough rotates through Texas on Saturday. That scenario is the first time I've seen it and I wouldn't get too excited about it just yet. Let's see what future runs and common sense weather dictates.

Portastorm,

When this type of weather hits, I become a little kid again. Common sense and logic no longer function.

[Portastorm]

I believe they're basing this on one solitary run of the GFS (12z today). That cold-core low at the base of the trough rotates through Texas on Saturday. That scenario is the first time I've seen it and I wouldn't get too excited about it just yet. Let's see what future runs and common sense weather dictates.

Portastorm,

When this type of weather hits, I become a little kid again. Common sense and logic no longer function.

I totally understand! I think we all do or else we would not be on this board. I just try to temper my excitement so I don't end up disappointed!!

It's already colder here in Austin than initially forecasted and this ought to be a very wild next few days!

[LSU2001]

Welcome!!!
There are some really great people in here and I have found that you can learn a great deal.
Geaux Tigers,
Tim

[Kelarie]

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 230 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004
... SNOW STILL POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS LIMITED...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN... SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL RUN UNDER ONE INCH AND THAT THE SNOW MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST FLURRIES IN A NUMBER OF AREAS.

WIND CHILL INDICES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. CHRISTMAS MORNING MAY OFFER THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA. STILL COLDER READINGS COULD OCCUR IF SNOW LINGERS ON THE GROUND.