Still a little hope...

[Brent]

Harris County, GA, county to my east across the stateline.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW AND
LIGHT SLEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

From FFC:

.LONG TERM...
NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP OCCURS ON FRI AS S/W PROGRESSES ALONG
NRN GULF IN BROAD ERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON NRN
EXTENT OF PRECIP. GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND 00Z RUN IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. CONSENSUS OF GFS/ECMWF/DGEX SEEMS
TO INDICATE PRECIP IF ANY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SRN ZONES. HAVE
ADDED SLT CHC BASED ON CONSENSUS OF PREV AND CURRENT RUNS OF MED
RANGE MODELS. PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RAIN...BUT WOULD
LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO SOON TO NAIL THIS
DOWN BUT THAT IS OUR BEST ESTIMATE. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN BEHIND WAVE
CHRISTMAS DAY SO SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL/COLD.

[SouthernWx]

Sorry Brent....but it's game over.

There will be no white Christmas for anyone in Georgia or Alabama....both the GFS and ECMWF have trended for a stronger but slower moving storm system. At this range, they won't be wrong..

James Spann was right on the money this morning....by the time precip reaches us late on the 26th into the 27th, Christmas will be a memory....and it will be too warm for anything wintry

[air360]

Southernwx...i understand what you are saying and i agree the models are showing it not being anything anymore...but at the same time...be careful how hardcore you go about nothing happening down there...it IS still a few days away...and the models COULD change...sure..its not that good of a chance...but there is still a chance...its not 100percent sure....it wont be 100 percent sure until it happens...

[SouthernWx]

be careful how hardcore you go about nothing happening down there...it IS still a few days away...and the models COULD change...sure..its not that good of a chance...but there is still a chance...its not 100percent sure....it wont be 100 percent sure until it happens...

Friend, based on everthing I know about the science of meteorology and climatology....based on my three decades of experience and knowledge, the odds against a white Christmas occurring in Alabama or Georgia this week are 99.9%.

I'd honestly love to see a white Christmas happen, and if I saw any chance of it occurring, I'd say so....but I don't; and I never wishcast. Brent is a good friend...and he deserves my honest analysis.....which is what he got.

PW

[southerngale]

Perry, do you feel the same way about Southeast Texas? If I'm reading the GFS and ETA correctly (which I doubt), my area is on the very edge of the precipitation on our coldest day here, Thursday.

[SouthernWx]

Perry, do you feel the same way about Southeast Texas?

Kelly, your area of SE Texas has a better chance of a white Christmas than Alabama/ Georgia....but even there, it appears to be more of an ice threat than snow.

Here are the progged conditions for the Beaumont area:

+ 72 hr.
-1.747 surface temp (c°)
-.881 850 mb/ 5000 temp (c°)
543.958 thickness value
.014 mm 6-hr precip

FRI 12/24 6 a.m.
surface temp 29°
850 mb temp (5000') 31°
thickness 543.9 (anything above 540 isn't conductive for snow)
6 hr precip: trace

----------------------------------------

+ 78.
-2.781
-.714
544.245
1.764 mm

FRI 12/24 12 p.m.
surface temp 27°
850 mb (5000') temp 31°
thickness 544.2
6 hr precip: 1.764 mm or 0.07" inches

-----------------------------------------

+ 84.
-3.130
+.286
546.005
5.143

FRI 12/24 6 p.m.
surface temp 26°
850 mb temp 32°
thickness 546.0
6 hr precip: 0.21" inches

----------------------------------------

+ 90.
-2.335
1.440
547.162
2.011

SAT 12/24 12 midnight
surface temp 28°
850 mb temp 34°
thickness 547.2
6 hr precip: 0.08"

----------------------------------------

+ 96.
-2.596
1.696
547.083
.382

SAT 12/25 6 a.m.
surface temp 27°
850 mb temp 35°
thickness 547.1
6 hr precip: 0.01"

----------------------------------------

+102.
1.416
2.767
549.092
.014

FRI 12/24 noon
surface temp 34°
850 mb temp 37°
thickness 549.1 (anything above 540 isn't conductive for snow)
6 hr precip: trace


Kelly, these are the parameters for a light sleet/ freezing rain event...possibly beginning as a light sleet/ snow mix before the 850 mb temp rises above freezing.

If any accumilation occurs in Beaumont, I expect it to be 1) rather light (<1/2")...and 2) ice rather than snow

[PTrackerLA]

Question: Is south central LA still looking at the same threat as Beaumont? I'll take a little ice on Christmas eve .